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About Paulie21

  • Birthday 03/19/1994

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Carol Stream, IL

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  1. The HRRR and current radar are a bit too different to compare at this moment.
  2. Thank you. Just glancing at the sounding, the blue box on the left I circled implies strength of upward vertical velocities. This is a rather strong signature and almost a textbook case because it is essentially in the same layer as the DGZ. DGZ is the dendritic growth zone, an thermal area between -12 to -18 C (highlights on the skew-T here with red dashed lines I made). Soundings highlight any saturated (has to be saturated) column with yellow on the temperatures line. The DGZ will help produce larger flakes and the lift will help flakes stay in that layer and make larger aggregates as they eventually fall. The reason for this strong signatures of upward vertical velocities is due to jet coupling enhancing lift (left exit region of trough and right entrance region of jet to the north), as well as frontogenesis aloft. 850mb is somewhat weak in this scenario. Looks better ~700mb.
  3. The jet coupling on the 18Z NAM looks like a hot spot for upstate NY. All the way from KROC to Watertown. Ridiculous omega values on the sounding basically perfectly co-located the the DGZ (shallow but still a good sounding). This looks like fat dendrites are gonna be falling during an awful commute Friday morning and then some... All this thanks to being right between the left exit region of the trough and right entrance of the jet to the north. This, coupled with a juiced deformation band with ton of stretching and frontogenesis..sounds like it'll be ripping.
  4. An interesting little setup in central OK later today. Looks like the HRRR wants to initiate near the triple point with 50+ kts of bulk shear essentially orthogonal to a boundary into 1500+ j/kg surface based CAPE. This should promote discrete storms to go off near OKC. Comparing to current obs it's doing decently well with dews and they're progged to be reaching near 60° by 22 - 23Z in some areas. With a 50kt mid level jet streak over Oklahoma and (at least) southerly flow at surface, it will create enough shear for rotating updrafts, however, due to meager low level flow in general, it may suppress the overall tornado potential. Lapse rates in general look impressive as you advect in steep lapse rates and continue with daytime heating now that cloud debris has moved off to the east. 0-3km CAPE will be impressive later today and wouldn't be surprised to see a brief couple tors in C OK. Or as Reed Timmer tweeted earlier today..."Danger Noodles". RAP progged 0-3 km MLCAPE and sfc vorticity for 23Z. Has a decent handle currently on what's going on.
  5. aaaand still not tor warned...what a joke
  6. Tornado on Pittsfield storm. Reported via several people.
  7. Onset rain and some places sitting at mid-upper 30s the night before it'll be tough at first but given strong dynamical cooling i can't imagine there being much of a mix, quick transition to steady/heavy snow. Thinking ratios will be under 10:1 though...weird
  8. 12Z NAM BUFKIT: Rips Sunday afternoon with 100mb DGZ co-located with strongest omega and low EPV values. Too bad the track is such a mess. Ukie looks good but GEFS mean and many others have shifted northwest. Guess we'll see if euro caves.
  9. Snowing in Hackettstown, quickly filled in on the leading edge, looks like f-gen band really getting going in S PA and S NJ, getting ready for rip city later. Betting on at least 3" here. Pretty low EPV values along and north of the heavier line as well. boosts some confidence.
  10. I feel like I have said this next sentence several times this year already but...ensembles don't look bad for next weekend, along with the OP GFS. ECMWF solid as well for now. All agree on some flow aloft in the plains. As everything in June and rest of the season goes, thermodynamics shouldn't be an issue, all kinematics from this point on.. At least something to look at and hopefully not disappoint like everything else has when it disappeared before it even got into the NAM range.
  11. Adjusted the omega so it's not off the screen. Here's 00Z NAMnest for KDPA at noon on Friday with an excess of 20 microbars of lift nicely aligned with the DGZ here too. Using 'max temp in profile' which is using ~15:1 ratios there a couple hours 10am into noon where NAMnest gives us 1.5"/hr rates with EPV essentially zero. cobb method wants to throw in almost 3"/hr rates at this time lol.
  12. There's no real research done on whether strong winds impact flake size, Walker Ashley always stressed upon that. Have seen fat dendrites though there were 30+kt gusts and pixie dust when there were calm winds but deep DGZ. The DGZ column itself this event will be in 50-60kts aloft if you want to argue wind impacting flake size. I think UVV's co-located with DGZ and supersaturation plays a far larger role than winds in ratios.
  13. This is simply BUFKIT data using 18Z GFS for KDPA, not something to take as gospel.. but the gif is DGZ overlayed with omega, along with corresponding soundings on right from Thursday night to Sunday. Best omega/DGZ combo looks to be 10-12Z Friday and 18Z ish Saturday. Picture also shows some wider spacing between isentropes for Friday morning which could imply low EPV in the saturated column, thus releasing some possible slantwise convection in banding. Also, using 'max temp in profile' on bufkit snow ratios should start off healthy 20-25:1 and drop down to 15:1 by end of the event. Looking at cobb and different ratio possibilities 18Z GFS gives out a foot for DPA regardless of which method you use. Hopefully NAM trends a smidge north. CropperCapture[6].bmp