Jackstraw

Yup....

91 here 72 in Kokomo, it's coming

Yeah MI has been drowned out by the MN WI stuff bu they've been getting hammered. Had some long trainers over night.

Rub it in all of ya still 93/75 here lol

That means I have another day to wait

Mesoscale Discussion 1546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois and Chicagoland Area Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201859Z - 202100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...As thunderstorms/outflow near northern Illinois, intense convection is possible given the extreme buoyancy in the area. Uncertainty remains as to how far south ongoing/newly developing convection will push into northern Illinois. A WW is possible should convective trends become more clear. DISCUSSION...A relatively narrow corridor of undisturbed airmass remains in far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s F to low 90s F with dewpoints holding in the upper 70s F. Two ongoing linear segments in southwestern and southeastern Wisconsin will likely continue to sag slowly southward with time. Given the extreme buoyancy -- MLCAPE of 4000+ J/kg -- intense convection is possible with damaging winds being the primary threat. With the low-level shear vector oriented nearly parallel to the outflow, it is uncertain how much development will occur southward into Illinois. However, HCRs are currently visible on visible satellite imagery in northeastern Illinois. Even subtle lift from the outflow boundary may allow parcels to reach their LFC. A WW is possible should trends reveal convection is more likely. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/20/2019

Gusted t0 45 last i heard

That tornado is about 15 miles north of the airshow.

Oshkosh air show could get a little crazy this morning with pilots trying to beat any weather coming in. If you get hot and bored today you can listen and watch some of the arrivals here....... https://www.liveatc.net/hlisten.php?mount=kosh3 https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-webcams/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=73424B0E16414774A6AF336DECC455B9&_z=z

https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-webcams/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=73424B0E16414774A6AF336DECC455B9&_z=z

Be interesting to see how far south this gets. S MI has some steep lapse rates going on. The western flank is stronger and further south than I thought it would be.

A bit of a bookend was trying to form on the NE edge

Tomorrow and Sunday are the big fly in days. I believe you can arrive as early as yesterday (I arrived on Wed. in 94 assisting a flight school vendor). Like any other airport if they would get raked by 70 80 mph winds or even a tornado there could be damage especially with all of the vendor displays setup. But on the other hand they are very very organized (no matter what it seems like on youtube lol) and very prepared. There's a dedicated NWS website for the airport up right now and pilots are pointed to it in the NOTAM. I certainly wouldn't have flown in today with the forecast that was out this morning. These guys are flying mostly light aircraft under VFR conditions so they should be in the habit of checking weather to avoid violating the law. On another note tomorrow and Sunday could be really busy and exciting, nothing funner than flying into the busiest airport in the world on a busy day.

Been partly cloudy all day with spotty fair weather cumulus and a decent 10-15 mph breeze with gusts so it really wasn't that bad around here. I thought yesterday was more oppressive with no wind. Currently 92/75/105

Didn't say it was set it stone, was pointing out the model runs and its obvious local forecast offices aren't totally buying into it. GFS does have some support from the Euro albiet 1 or 2 degrees cooler. 12Z runs are even cooler after this Sunday and don't have me at 80 until next Sunday. 7 straight days of high 60's warming to high 70's, rain or no rain, with lows in the low 50's warming to low 60's is a bit anomalous for my area in late July. Once again didn't say it was going to happen.