Jackstraw

Could it happen here?

My original post was in response to the picture posted. I should've refrained from getting caught up in the ridiculous melee. I'm sure there will be scenes of more extensive damage as the days move forward.

The Key words were "Kind of", referencing the trees stripped, however also noticing structures (almost all in the pic with steel hurricane shutters closed) still standing. My reference to garage doors and codes? Roughly 80% of the structural failures to domestic homes in Andrew were due to garage doors failing and allowing wind entry to the structures. Andrew resulted in much stricter building codes in Fl. which over the last almost 30 years have saved lives and tons of property damage. The rest of your response was correct in terms of better building codes and hitting a more populated area, believe that was my point. Was Andrew "worse"? Let the science determine that in the days weeks months following Michael from a meteorological perspective. Sorry I don't click on anything "Yahoo" related.

Kind of reminiscent of Homestead except for stricter building codes and damn good garage doors.

I can't think of a better tool than this video to show people why they need to evacuate storm surge prone areas. It really shows how quickly and how powerful the wind and water combined come ashore. Too often people see water levels rise over a period of many hours, this was true storm surge. It went from nothing to maybe 4 feet of water w 3 or 4 ft waves on top in 15-20 min. And that was w/ the wind and surge coming from the E/SE somewhat paralleling that coastline. The video quit before the the winds became more perpendicular to the coastline. That location looked like it never saw the eye proper but stayed in the eyewall (maybe even the outer fringes) throughout. The backside surge can be just as bad. I couldn't imagine back in the days of Camille being half toasted at a hurricane party in a house sitting at or just above sea level, and having even worse than this come barreling through. I dont care about the blame game stuff, I don't blame race car drivers, it's their choice and we all still like to watch. Regardless, glad they're ok.

Another big meso in the NE eyewall rotating around

Landfalling in the Phillip... I mean Florida

It made the GFDL look good when it came online lol. It's been very good especially with Gulf systems.

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC) Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 14:02Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number: 14 Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 14 Observation Number: 34 Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 10th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 29.1N 86.0W Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the SSW (195°) from Panama City, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 934mb (27.58 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 145° (from the SE) 115 knots (132 mph) 925mb 90m (295 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.8°C (77°F) 155° (from the SSE) 134 knots (154 mph) 850mb 828m (2,717 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.2°C (72°F) 200° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 13:44Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 29.12N 85.99W - Time: 13:44:58Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 29.25N 85.95W - Time: 13:48:47Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 138 knots (159 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 126 knots (145 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 753mb to 934mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 154 gpm - 4 gpm (505 geo. feet - 13 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 131 knots (151 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 33668 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 934mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 850mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.2°C (72°F) 825mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 21.4°C (71°F) 753mb 18.2°C (64.8°F) 18.2°C (65°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 934mb (Surface) 145° (from the SE) 115 knots (132 mph) 931mb 155° (from the SSE) 119 knots (137 mph) 928mb 160° (from the SSE) 131 knots (151 mph) 920mb 155° (from the SSE) 140 knots (161 mph) 914mb 160° (from the SSE) 156 knots (180 mph) 910mb 160° (from the SSE) 149 knots (171 mph) 905mb 165° (from the SSE) 134 knots (154 mph) 902mb 165° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph) 894mb 175° (from the S) 138 knots (159 mph) 890mb 180° (from the S) 154 knots (177 mph) 886mb 185° (from the S) 155 knots (178 mph) 881mb 190° (from the S) 162 knots (186 mph) 877mb 190° (from the S) 157 knots (181 mph) 865mb 190° (from the S) 154 knots (177 mph) 857mb 195° (from the SSW) 139 knots (160 mph) 850mb 200° (from the SSW) 138 knots (159 mph) 811mb 210° (from the SSW) 118 knots (136 mph) 753mb 230° (from the SW) 124 knots (143 mph)

Thats an 8k ft column of nasty.

Hats off to the NOAA guys. They earned our tax dollars on that flight.

It may actually be more violent in its current state. Some of the 2 or 3 drops right in a convective burst around the eyewall showed some very strong winds just above the surface, high Cat 4 low Cat 5. I would imagine if they had a magic sonde that could follow the burst around a lot of those winds would work there way down, albeit in a small area for only a short time, but a short time would be all it would take at landfall. The persistent meso vortices in these bursts and the jump in lightning when they occur, they almost act like super super cells.

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC) Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 2:26Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number: 14 Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 12 Observation Number: 28 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 2Z on the 10th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 26.9N 86.3W Location: 247 statute miles (397 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -339m (-1,112 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 963mb (28.44 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 26.2°C (79°F) 150° (from the SSE) 90 knots (104 mph) 925mb 351m (1,152 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.7°C (75°F) 175° (from the S) 142 knots (163 mph) 850mb 1,091m (3,579 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.8°C (69°F) 195° (from the SSW) 111 knots (128 mph) 700mb 2,761m (9,058 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) 13.4°C (56°F) 215° (from the SW) 121 knots (139 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 2:13Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 26.91N 86.34W - Time: 2:13:46Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.05N 86.29W - Time: 2:18:25Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 170° (from the S) - Wind Speed: 125 knots (144 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 117 knots (135 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 692mb to 962mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 115 knots (132 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 33668 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 963mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 26.2°C (79°F) 850mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.8°C (69°F) 692mb 13.8°C (56.8°F) 13.1°C (56°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 963mb (Surface) 150° (from the SSE) 90 knots (104 mph) 961mb 150° (from the SSE) 92 knots (106 mph) 960mb 150° (from the SSE) 102 knots (117 mph) 959mb 150° (from the SSE) 109 knots (125 mph) 956mb 155° (from the SSE) 117 knots (135 mph) 941mb 165° (from the SSE) 122 knots (140 mph) 938mb 170° (from the S) 125 knots (144 mph) 933mb 175° (from the S) 137 knots (158 mph) 925mb 175° (from the S) 142 knots (163 mph) 918mb 180° (from the S) 130 knots (150 mph) 908mb 180° (from the S) 123 knots (142 mph) 881mb 190° (from the S) 125 knots (144 mph) 865mb 190° (from the S) 121 knots (139 mph) 859mb 195° (from the SSW) 112 knots (129 mph) 850mb 195° (from the SSW) 111 knots (128 mph) 692mb 220° (from the SW) 120 knots (138 mph)

They're making the most of this pass. Multiple eyewall punches. 163mph at 1100 feet. Another good burst of convection like this things repeatedly been doing, yikes.

Looks like Kermit is going to try one more SW/NE pass. They gotta be running out of puke bags