Jackstraw

Now I'm really going to be p^&s$d off if 20 miles SE of me gets 22 inches and I get nada!! Edit: NAM be smoking some Freeway Rick product lol.

Yeah, it's been hanging out with Randle McMurphy. That would be the coup of the decade if that insanity actually happens..

Yeah nws in Jackson is sheltering in place

KIND's short term disscussion describes it pretty well around here... miserable lol.... .SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/... Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Miserable might be the best term to describe the bulk of the weather expected through the short term period. The approaching upper trough today will amplify Friday with an upper low closing off over the Tennessee Valley. As this feature wobbles into the Ohio Valley through late Saturday. The aforementioned surface wave near Cincinnati Friday morning will spin just east of the forecast area in response to the strengthening upper low before both features kick out to the northeast Saturday night. This will place central Indiana on the northwest side of the system throughout much of the period and all but ensures two sloppy days for much of the area. The northwest shift to the track of the upper low in the guidance would suggest continued unsettled weather Friday into Saturday with an increasing likelihood of a renewed period of widespread and steady rainfall likely focused from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning as a persistent mid level deformation axis parks over the region and interacts with a strong E/NE low level flow pulling around the northern side of the system. Still discrepancies between where specifically the axis of steadiest rainfall will set up...but higher pops are warranted for much of the area late Friday through the first half of Saturday. While precip water values will fall back...the forcing aloft will compensate and likely enable some locations to pick up potentially an additional inch of rain from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Colder air will continue to advect into the region courtesy of the strong northerly flow that will persist throughout much of the short term. This will produce a period of chilly..raw and otherwise miserable weather conditions Friday into at least the first half of Saturday. The other potential impact is that the boundary layer may cool enough late Friday night and Saturday to support some wet snowflakes mixing in with rain... especially where the mid level forcing is strongest. Surface temperatures will remain well above freezing and rates are not expected to cause any issues whatsoever. But...its the potential for snowflakes on April 20 which will just add to the misery of the weather conditions.

HRRR has been on its own bringing some instability into northern IN and SEMI late morning/early afternoon, even down into west central IN early morning tomorrow. Looks like it hangs the warm front just south of Lake Erie but still lets it pivot up the west side with some short term decent daytime heating reflected in surface LI's. It's kinda by itself model wise not much to hang your hat on but a better hat rack than I have lol. I've always wondered if a warm front gets hung up by a cold lake on one end but can continue unimpeded like around the west end of Erie if that couldn't enhance that small area of the warm front giving it additional lift over the cooler lake air. Just my arm chair take.

Any shot we would've had would've been with the cold front and since its coming through in the wee hours of the morning not much of a chance of anything significant. Really need some decent daytime heating/good timing or some anomalistic kinematic forcing with these early Spring systems to throw some atmospheric fat lighter in and get it started. I'd like a shot to break daytime cap over in these parts but with stagnated cirro-stratus moisture over a meager boundary layer until nightfall we're proverbially screwed with the current pattern. Late March/April sun angle is a 2 edged sword The timing of these systems has been crazy clockwork lately to the downside, at least around here.

Bad timing for us here in central IN once again with night time passing of the best dynamics.. Although 12Z HRRR Hodo's showing marginal Tor risk in west central IN early morning.

Yeah, nice today and nice tomorrow then chance of rain and 50's for 6 of the next 7 days

If I end up beating a meteorologist that lets just say mentioned bird farts being added to atmospheric models, do I get to be a Pro-forecaster for a day?

Well the mule analogy definitely applies and respectively. 2020 is just around the proverbial corner

Once again, timing, timing, timing for us in central IN. Par for the course, maybe we can pull a Tiger

When it got warned at 4:52 there looked to be a debris ball on CC but I was using COD's radar at the time which isn't that good. That was the one cell that rode the warm front, took a hard right at one point. I think on the onset LL winds weren't quite backed enough, the surface low came in a little to quickly along with the warm front out running most of the thermodynamics, at least in central OH south. I would venture to say a bullet was dodged because if the timing of all of the ingredients would've been just a slight bit better i.e. a couple of hours slower with the surface low, things could have really got going.

Lets hope that one gets occluded. It's heading straight for CLE

Make that 3..... Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 452 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 OHC077-139-142130- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190414T2130Z/ Huron OH-Richland OH- 452 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HURON AND NORTHERN RICHLAND COUNTIES... At 452 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Shelby, or 12 miles north of Mansfield, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Shelby, New London, Plymouth, Greenwich and Shenandoah. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4085 8266 4099 8272 4108 8266 4107 8243 4099 8244 4099 8242 4089 8241 TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 227DEG 46KT 4093 8258 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...1.25IN $$ Griffin