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Everything posted by Jackstraw

  1. That's the price you pay when an economy of production moves to an economy of service. Once you base your economy on consumption instead of production there's nothing to support it when demand for services hits the basement. A "Service" based economy is just that, it serves. We haven't had a "production" or "goods" based economy in 40 or 50 years. At least if you have a production based economy, when shit hits the fan, you can at least "make things" for yourself. If your economy is based on service, it's artificial. It's Bitcoin. Walmart is the largest employer in this country (which is absolutely embarrassing). What do they produce? Not digging at you, I'm in the same boat. I get it your a supply chain analyst. Most people never heard of the "supply chain" in detail until it was brought up during this and may not understand completely what it is. It's not just ships, ports trucks and/or warehouses. It's way deeper than the obvious on the surface. But the supply chain doesn't "make" anything. The supply chain creates jobs, but what flows through the supply chain has changed drastically over the last 40 years. Just like what I do for a living it doesn't "produce" a product that can be built or sold. I support a product or products that have already been built and sold. This country is at a true crossroads right now, for that matter the world is. The divisions are already deep, and like the stock market, are artificially being exasperated by selfish entities trying to exploit them at our expense for their own profit. We are facing something now that typical American denial isn't going to work. We're going to have to deal with it for a long time. The economic game that's been played by us world wide, the fact that we have dollar stores, the fact that we in this country get the best deals without making shit at the expense of impoverished slaves exploited by the the "walmarts" of the world. None of us can, nor should we, rely on the current leadership or the future leadership, to get us as a country through this. We need to stand up, and do the hard thing, but on our terms, not the fat cats. The economy is important, but this current economy isn't worth sacrificing lives for IMHO This is a crucial time right now in our society. We've been a junkie ignoring reality long enough. I hope our kids and grandkids won't have to forgive us and may thank us instead.
  2. Partly true. There were definitely funding issues for continued research into vaccines for both due to the complexities of developing a vaccine against this kind of virus and of course profitability.. While flu viruses are similar to coronaviruses, the reason there's a flu vaccine every year is we have decades of vaccines to work off of and of course one can make a ton of money. Vaccines for SARS and MERS were being researched, with some success in animal trials, but not without some severe side effects. The research hasn't stopped. Funding may be part of it, but it's also the nature of these viruses that make it so difficult. I guess one could say it would be difficult to do human trials on a virus that's been "contained" because of the danger involved and probably couldn't make a buck on it (until now). MERS was thought to have been contained until 2015 when it reared it's head in South Korea so we've known these are lurking. Just as the argument we're having right now in this country about exposure and death vs the economy, I find it very ironic that a limiting factor in development of some sort of vaccine for Cov2 was due to the fact that SARS and MERS didn't kill a lot of folks therefore wasn't economically profitable. It's a dark comedic tragedy. https://www.bcm.edu/departments/molecular-virology-and-microbiology/emerging-infections-and-biodefense/sars-virus
  3. These coronaviruses aren't smallpox or polio. They are mRNA viruses, you can't just shoot dead or semi dead virus in someone to build immunity. People really need to understand, this is the most contagious coronavirus we've ever seen, and THAT is the problem in the long run.
  4. They don't have one for SARS or MERS yet, at least not a proven one. And thats damn near 20 and 10 years respectively. There are some iffy treatments, but containment was the key to both of them.
  5. Yeah, you won't see me in a restaurant until 2021 and I'm still an active member in the NRA (no not that one). It was interesting that Holcomb said he had a call with the governors of KY and OH earlier in the day but not with IL or MI (although he did say they notified the latter states of IN's intentions early Fri.) So unless I'm missing something, I have not seen a new executive order on the IN corona page. In the past when the existing orders were extended there was a new executive order that superseded the current one. All I'm seeing is references to the backontrack.in.gov webpage. Such a reversal in direction I would assume would require a new executive order. I was hoping to be able to read that to see the finer points of how we move forward instead of a PP presentation. The current executive order expired at midnight Thurs. Some might think I'm nit picking but without a new executive order IN has now entered the foggy world of guidelines. Not like we weren't there already. Technically, the IDOH was entrusted with enforcement of the restrictions from day one, and only with investigative power. None of these restrictions were technically law except for some of the business restrictions (which fell underneath the INDOH. They basically changed the rules that health inspectors use when they inspect your business). People could congregate in groups in someones back yard (and they did) without fear of law enforcement dispersing or throwing them in jail (which really makes me wonder about these extremely small numbers of protestors, against what?). I digress, easy to find rabbit holes in all of this lol. I guess my point is, technically the previous executive order and all that was in it has been allowed to expire. The current stage 2 guidelines don't kick in until Monday. Is there technically a free for all this weekend? I mean "technically" without official public notification every restaurant in the state could open up this weekend. If I'm missing the legal document please point me to it. I thought IN was being a little smart about this but my state just took me for a walk and now all I have is a leash and no hand and I want to chase a rabbit
  6. The site for the new guidelines is now up. https://www.backontrack.in.gov/
  7. I agree. I expected some opening up, this was a little more than I expected. As he said, if things start to go south they may re-instate some of the current restrictions. I'd like to see specific guidelines that could cause that reaction. The one thing I did not see that I think deviates from the federal guidelines is for every stage the federal guidelines said continued 14 day drop in new cases. The Governor stated they expect to see an increase in cases as they move through the opening over the next 4 weeks. I find that a bit discerning. Hopefully the new order will address some of these things specifically. If the responsibility is being pushed more to individual citizens, if there is a sudden spike statewide in cases, IMO it's going to be very hard for the state to reimpose restrictions. The public will react like 10 year old let out of the corner, does the same bad thing, then gets a spanking.
  8. I know it's not exactly the SE but 25 filtered TOR reports late afternoon/evening Wed moving into Thurs. Take the model runs if you want, they didn't pick up on this many tornadic events on the 22nd. Still a pretty volatile environment overnight as the system moves east. There's still some pretty established updrafts in the warm sector across central/southern LA. Plenty of ingredients to work with.
  9. Jasper cell is wide open, moving into areas with VTP numbers around 7-8 per meso. This thing could be a monster.
  10. Both of those storms confirmed TOR warned. TOR Emergency for Jasper TX
  11. Ongoing TDS on the TX cell (might be cows with it's location). This one and the one along the Red River could be long trackers as they both move east
  12. MD on that SE TX supercell getting ready to move into LA... Mesoscale Discussion 445 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 135... Valid 222253Z - 222330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 135 continues. SUMMARY...SUMMARY Based on recent radar and environmental data, a strong to intense tornado with potential peak winds of 130 to 165 mph (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION Recent radar signatures from KGRK as of 2250Z reveal an intense supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree rotational velocity of at least 70 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on recent radar scans. These signatures are occurring in an environment characterized by STP between 5 and 6. Previous signatures within similar environments produced tornado-damage-estimated wind speeds from 130 to 165 mph and confidence is high for a strong to intense tornado. A longer-track tornado is ongoing and may continue based on the rotational velocity duration and the storm moving within a favorable downstream environment. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/22/2020
  13. Stout dew front along the tailend of that line on the OK/TX border, 25-30 degree drop in dews as it passes
  14. Massive hook on radar on that storm
  15. I agree. We've had a couple close calls up here that didn't pan out thankfully. A lot of folks from the Easter system have no place to shelter in now. Although numbers may not show in the grand scheme, seems like common sense if you get whacked by one of these systems people and responders chance of exposure to CV locally is going to go up exponentially. Hoping for a pattern change. We're only a couple weeks away from cane season to start kicking in in earnest and for the last 3 or 4 weeks it seem's like there's been some kind of stalled front/weakness draped across an already steamy Gulf. An early season home brew, be it a cane or a torrential flooder, could just play havoc, putting a larger population and corresponding responders at risk. Closing shelters for tornadoes recently what are we going to do if/when a tropical system comes barreling through? As much of a weather nerd I am, I hope mother nature cuts us some slack for the next couple of months.
  16. It's going to be interesting. I think for our state it's more important than some that it be properly coordinated. I mean we have a couple large population centers but there's even bigger, and more, population centers in other states right on our border. The protests in Indiana are a very small bullshit minority. There's a few inconveniences, but for the most part anybody who thinks their freedom is being trampled on needs to go back in their cave. In the more rural counties like where I live the biggest issue isn't folks laid off, it's REAL small businesses struggling, not stock market listed "small businesses" struggling. I've been very impressed for the most part at the social distancing aspect. Yeah there are a lot of people out on the nice days but the few times I or one of our friends has done the group shopping thing, been very surprised at how folks are respecting the whole social distancing thing this far in. Few bad apples here and there but they are usually put in their place if there's a small respectful group around that see's it. Nice days there's a lot of cars out but the parking lots are not full at all. Think it's just people doing like me, take a ride. It's nice out, it's safe, and it keeps the heebeegeebees at bay. It's going to be hard to make the calls up where you're at, down in the SE corner of the state and down by Clarksville. Those areas are so intertwined with the larger metropolises across state lines, amongst others, it really is going to have to take coordination between the states. And to my point about state borders. When you look at a map.OH,IL, and IN share more "extensive" as in lengths of the borders consistently with more states than any other states in the country. So, IMHO, it is more imperative that they coordinate the re-opening with their border states than maybe others in the country.
  17. I think Holcombe here in Indiana has been doing a pretty good job. Indiana is one of the few states in the country that is bordered by 4 other states , not just a small border like say GA and TN for example, but extensive borders. Indiana shares very large borders with the 4 surrounding states. I would argue the largest borders combined with other states than any other state in the country. "Cross roads of America". What Indiana's neighbors do, and just as important to Indiana's neighbors, what we do, can have a huge impact on each. It could be argued that how Indiana moves forward could have a greater impact to this region as opposed how one of the 4 bordering states move forward, at least when it comes to the number of people affected. I'm glad that this region is working together on moving forward. Holcombe could very well hold this region hostage. If he would pull a Kemp the number of people that could possibly be adversely affected would be much larger than Indiana. I think he really is listening to the Governors that surround Indiana whose states have been hit much harder than Indiana. From hearing him speak at his conference calls I get the feeling of such a thing as "State social distancing". A single state that shares like 100-200 miles of borders with 4 surrounding states, decisions by all of those states need to be very closely coordinated, partisanship aside. I think Holcombe understands that and is letting that, and more importantly, has been letting the science guide his decisions moving forward. He's not perfect, nobody is in this time. But, compared to other Republican Governors in the country I don't think he's towing the "behind the scenes" line being touted by the federal "leadership". We shall see come Monday how this Governor, and the Governors of the 4 surrounding states move forward. I am glad of one thing, better Holcombe than Pence right now.
  18. I read that study also. Even though it's not "conclusive" there's a lot of plain old common sense in it. It's pretty much coming out the length of time to exposure is exponentially related to the chance of someone who would not "normally" have severe complications as apposed if they contracted the virus by simply shaking hands with someone, to becoming severely ill. The replication rate of this virus internally isn't extreme compared to others (Ebola doubles every 20 minutes). But if you are consistently exposed hour by hour, day by day for a couple days the "number" of viruses that infiltrate over time overwhelm even younger and/or healthy peoples immune system and can cause an immune inflammatory response requiring hospitalization. It's being studied this is why folks on these cruise ships had such an adverse reaction to the virus with severe infections up to 5 times a town of similar size. This may be why there was a higher rate of severe infections in densely populated areas initially. That church in Sacramento had a disproportionately large number of severe infections and deaths compared to people who may have been infected yet less exposed consistently. It's probably why we've seen stories of young healthy hospital workers succumbing, the hi rates of police and other first responders succumbing. These people that are higher than most to be in contact initially, they are higher than most to be in contact over and over again. They are running much higher rates of being severely infected regardless of demographic. I really think there is a "dose" factor here simply because of the long incubation time. Which once again brings us back to what? TESTING TESTING.
  19. Well the only way we're going to get testing is the same way states had to get supplies, the feds either dish out what tax dollars already bought, or sieze what states purchased with their own money, then dish the stuff out to private middle men under the auspice that they are the best supply chain we have and those grifters basically ebay it all at a huge profit because it's legal to price gouge our tax dollars via the government but not our wallets in this country. This is the most disgusting raping of this country I've ever seen, and I've seen a lot of rapes of the tax base by these fat cats. I am disgusted period. Anyone who thinks this shit's ok can just go screw themselves.
  20. There are folks around here that are are believing an internet rumor (what? It's not true?) that if you smoke cigarettes you have a better chance of not contracting the virus because the flem from cig smoking in your lungs is so thick the virus can't get through it to get to the cells in your lungs. Seriously. I've heard that story standing in line at a store more than once, and have had people tell me that. Disclaimer: I was a fairly heavy corporate smoker for about 20 years. Currently I am a light tobacco user. Equal to about a couple packs a week but their hand rolled and I occasionally smoke a pipe. I do rationalize. I get the the tobacco from a friends very small organic tobacco farm in NC that's illegal as hell. I won't go into why organic non pesticide, non nicotine ramped up tobacco is illegal. It's a habit (tobacco company jargon for addiction lol) I've tried to stop several times but just can't, so be it, so I do it in the most "healthy" way I can. And yes I partake in the indigenous natural gift of mother nature but mostly in edible form, it's cheaper and much more relaxing. When I smoke it it literally makes me sick to my stomach and just gets me too wasted.
  21. Seen flurries at the 500 way way back in the day when you could camp in the North 40 on Thurs. before the race
  22. Going to be a half way decent day Saturday around the GL region. The heebeegeebees are rearing their heads. With the encouragement of DC let the great experiment begin. Hope it goes well, really do. Hope the wack jobs don't follow the leader.
  23. I'm not a social media person. I don't tweet, twitch, tchwat, face or anything. This board is about as social media as I'll ever get. Hoosier can delete this post if he needs to, I understand. One of my best friends I've ever had lost his life to this around noon today. He was perfectly healthy, no underlying conditions. He was 10 years my junior at 48, had worked his way up from being a dishwasher at my restaurant back in the 90's to becoming a partner in that business with my brother and I to getting a PHD in 2017 in social psychology. He was my roommate for 5 years, my friend, my adventure buddy from kayaking to rock climbing to just about anything that made you feel alive to anything stupid enough to get you killed. He kept my "Old Man" arrogance in check while pushing me to not be "The Old Man". Most of all we listened to each other, really listened, something that's hard to come by nowadays. He married a wonderful woman he met who was waitressing at our restaurant and they have 4 awesome kids. She went from a waitress to being a pediatric RN. He started feeling bad the last week of March. He and I were talking on the phone and I asked him if he was ok because I could just tell something wasn't right.. He told me he was fine just felt like a little cold. With what was going on and being someone like me who very seldom gets sick with colds flu or anything I asked him if he was concerned. That's when he told me he had already self contained himself in their garage by then so I knew he knew something was up. 3 days later his wife called us and was really getting concerned. She said he had a 102 temp that wasn't moving. He's a stubborn prick like I am so she asked me to talk to him. I talked to him on the phone over the next couple days and it was very noticeable he was getting worse. By the 3rd of April he conceded something was really wrong, really wrong. She got him to the hospital the following day, they tested him but since they had a good quarantine set up at home, plus they live on 5 acres in the country, and he wasn't in the high risk category sent him home. When he conceded he was sick it just got worse. I talked to him 2 maybe 3 times a day, either skype or just the phone. Thats when he started getting scared. I mean you could hear the subtle fear in his voice, the struggle to breathe, you could see it in his face. He was trying to stay cool for his wife and kids but she knew. I was scared for him. We would talk and do the he's young and healthy enough drill that he'd make it through. They got the result of the test back the 6th and it was positive. She tried to get him admitted to the hospital last Tuesday but even though he was positive he didn't adhere to the criteria needed in FL to be admitted. He finally got so bad last Thursday night she had to call an ambulance and they admitted him. He was in ICU on Friday, that's the last time I talked to him. They intubated him Friday evening and he succombed Monday. The only reason I'm posting this is because this ain't the damn flu. This was a perfectly healthy active 48 year old man It took it 3 weeks to take him but it took him. Not a weak man, not someone who gives up, not someone who cowers in front of adversity. A true survivor that overcame hurtles in his life that most of us would or will never have to face. I'm still numb to this. I won't be able to pay my respects at a funeral. I couldn't and can't jump on a plane and embrace his wife, his 3 kids in college, his one still at home. He and I were both cynical about this back in January, lets just get it and we'll be immune come fall when it comes back like the flu. This ain't the damn flu and it will kill anyone who doesn't take it seriously and doesn't treat it with respect and with the responsibility we all have to our family friends and neighbors. This story is one of millions worldwide. Please be safe everyone and truly think about others before you think about your wallet.
  24. So what is going to happen. First thing I have a question about is the hospitality industry. This industry is absolutely taking the biggest hit with these social distancing orders. Mom and pop restaurants are already getting crushed by the corporate drive through joints, heck even places like corporate Olive Garden type restaurants are getting killed by the Hardees of the country. How are these businesses going to open back up, exercise facilities, theaters, bars, anyplace that people congregate. Another thing is, what about folks who work at businesses that won't be allowed to open back up. There is a clause in the unemployment benefits that the feds said they would help with the extra 600 dollars a week (which doesnt kick in until next week in IN) will go through 7/31. They can revoke that if they decide to. The freeze on utility bills and rent payment repercussions, are those going to be lifted as soon as the economy gets reopened? Are utilities going to suddenly go around and disconnect folks who are either getting back to work or are still waiting for the extra UE benefits or stimulus money trying to get caught back up? Landlords evicting, banks foreclosing without a reasonable chance for some to get caught back up? Whats the reasonable time frame for that chance? Are people going to have to prove that they deserve continued help to get back to work in order to keep getting assistance in the short term? Small businesses that took the paycheck loans, they have to pay those back while at the same time trying to recover their business if they are lucky enough to open back up. What about the employees in the service industry that are already risking their lives for not that great of a paycheck, are they going to be exposed even more? There's a myriad of other issues. I agree we need to open the economy up like nobody's business. But the states better have their shit together doing it. There's going to be a lot of inequality when a restaurant or daycare center or theater can open in WY but none can in CO. It sucks, but IMHO we just can reopen statewide and/or nationwide until we have sufficient testing. It's not a matter of oppressive government, it's a matter of social responsibility. Lord knows I want to get back to work, and I'm sure there are many others who want to. We HAVE to get a sufficient testing system in place before we pull the 69 VW we're in back onto the interstate. If not I'm afraid there's gonna be a pile up that will shut that interstate down for a very long time.
  25. C'mon, I'll take it. I got nothing else to do, might as well stat pad a dismal winter with a miserable spring lol.