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Everything posted by Jackstraw
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I'm ready for Blizzard Warnings already lol
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Not too bad here today but yesterday was like wow. When the wind picked up in the afternoon mixing down the smoke it literally smelled like campfires smoldering. Strong too. I went out back once to make sure my scrap wood pile wasn't burning lol
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It was chilly here. Was 56 at 7am. Supposed to be a little cooler overnight maybe as low as 52-53. Loving the low dews more than anything. It can be 95 with a dew of 55, wouldn't bother me. Maybe we can keep those 70's dews away for awhile
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Picked up another 2.5 as of 8am. Some spots just North picked up over 3. Widespread 1-2 around N Central IN. I was actually chilly this morning for the first time since early May and it was 69 lol.
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Lake Louise! Max Webster's song, April in Toledo... "Say's she's takin' a break... from my face" lmao
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2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
Jackstraw replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The next couple of days the ridge riders may stretch their legs a bit to the ESE. These next round of SW's look to be stronger and have a better thermo environment than the last couple of days. I could see some fast moving bookends today and tomorrow maybe into IL/MI before this ridge completely collapses mid-week. -
We got a tenth early yesterday morning to keep this streak alive but I saw y'all got dumped on. We are drying out as much as possible with the humidity today so far. Maybe this evil leak in the atmosphere above us has finally been repaired lol. Crazy stretch of rain locally to be sure.
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Are you pushing the "anvil rain" record yet? lol
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Its getting Stephen Kingish around here. There's another little train that started about 2 hours ago. Its snaking 5 miles north and south and just dumping. I've gotten another .25 inches out of it and its still going. You can see it on radar. There's a boundary there but its been there like forever lol.
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Yip, between early this morning (literally one cell out of nowhere just like yesterday morning) and this afternoon we picked up another half inch or so. I was in New Castle and Chesterfield yesterday afternoon, cumulus back building from OH but no rain and when I got home around 8pm there were puddles everywhere. Between the one yesterday morning and early evening nearly a half inch. It's been like this everyday. I've lived around sea breezes and such, all that crap. When I look at Sat pics of central Indiana theres more often than not a thin stripe of clouds building in this area lately. Like I said, almost as if a latent outflow boundary has nestled in here. There were some studies back in the 90's concerning this type of phenomena and hurricane tracks but that was more centered on where the seasonal steering ridges were setting up as they can fluctuate a great deal. They were looking at correlations of early season moisture transport from Gulf and Atlantic, where heavier rains were occurring, that could show subtle areas of where say the Bermuda high was setting up that could give them clues as to where landfalling storms may be more prevalent for the coming Summer/Fall. I remember Bob Sheets discussing "follow the moisture" when referring to this. Had it bookmarked eons ago cant find it. Probably barking up the wrong tree. I mean we have had a meandering boundary through here for about a month with nothing major shoving it about. Was just wondering if such a thing may or not exist even theoretically. Like a little atmospheric wrinkle thats just floating around awaiting a 50 degree dew dry line to sweep in (or is that me lol) Plus I'm bored, freakin' sauna outside now
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I know glaciers have nothing to do with my rain lol. thats a whole different subject. I'm not that crazy... yet lol. My question was more towards a subtle weakness that lingers in the atmosphere where rain can develop more often than not. Kind of like an outflow boundary thing that can hang out for a month lol. Not a permanent thing. I know it sounds a little crazy Edit: We've definitely felt the heat Island effects from the expansion of Indy to the N. Will get some training storms up out of Indy
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So anyone with more weather knowledge than myself (which is most of you lol) answer a question for me. Is there such a thing as a medium range "weakness" trend that can get established over a somewhat small swath of geographic area. For instance I know that generally I70 and US40 run right along the usual storm tracks for low pressure moving from the SW/W US to the E/NE US. Storm tracks from the NW drape their cold fronts in an orientation that parallels those roads. Those roads also roughly run right along the the southern boundary of glaciers during the last glaciation period. Probably why it was a natural trail established by migratory animals and/or our ancestors (or some of our ancestors) I don't know. I'm getting into uneducated guesses lol. Anyway, my point is, can an area of weakness become temporarily established, however subtle over certain areas along this general storm track and "hang around" for awhile so that when we get into a pattern such as now with lots of pop ups around that area receives enhanced rainfall? I know these things happen on much larger scales i.e. the Bermuda Ridge etc. but can they form for a few months over certain areas for whatever reason? Just asking because I have been trying to get some stuff done outside every day since the 4th and 90% of the time it has rained and stopped me. And it's not widespread. I can watch the radar and a damn shower/storm will popup out of nowhere within 10 miles of here and roll right over us then dissipate, the radar blank for 50 to 100 miles around. If I was in a cult I'd blame the windmills like every other idiot around here Maybe being inside because of the rain has me paying to much attention to it or maybe I'm just nuts lol
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Ha!, evapotranspiration came up on here like 10 years ago when it was used in an AFD. Iowa corn gets blamed for everything lol
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Forecast for Columbia SC for the next week. The freaking air sweats there in August. Just a "hey it could be worse" post lol.... Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 74. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 3pm and 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 103. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Light southwest wind. Saturday Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 79. Sunday Sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Chance of precipitation is 30%
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All this rain we've had over the last 6 weeks or so and the UFO landing pa... I mean Pixie rings are every where, and I mean everywhere. More than one would usually see around here. If I start hearing crickets chirping Irish jigs I'm gonna start drinking again lol
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Seems like there's a pop up around here every day. Another one this morning, just popped up and dropped another quarter of an inch. I'm at 27 inches or so since 3/1 in my gauge. With models toying around with anywhere from 2-5in's in the next 10 days or so I could be over 30 inches of non tropical storm rain by the end of July. That's getting close to a years worth of liquid. Crops are definitely having their usual effect on low level humidity levels keeping dews in the 70-80% range. These night time dews in the 80% range can be suffocating even with overnight lows in the upper 60's to 70. Your body has nowhere to transfer the heat except a sweat rag lol. It's also hard on these crops. Mold issues are exploding. Field sprayers have been out in force trying to rescue a severely shunted soybean crop around here this year. Could get our first real shot at some swamp weather coming North next week. Models are really trying to roll in some South Calalacky crap next week with 90's, rain. and dews approaching 90% at night. Yeah, that's why they OD on Ice Tea down there, and beer lol. This has been one of the most humid, damp, muggy summers I've experienced since I moved back so far.
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Dammit, was going to go RC flying today but we're suddenly getting some wind. It's only 15KTs but thats too windy for me to risk my old 48in balsa wood Pitts I built with my son back in the early 90's. I would cry if I pile drove that thing into the ground lol. It's full aerobatic and a bitch to get up in the air (and back down!) but once up this thing can scream over 100mph in a dive. Rated at 20G's (pretty high for doped wood) and I've accidentally pulled 30g's with it while missing the bottom of a loop and saving it with less than a foot to spare. I haven't flown it yet this summer which is rare, I've usually had it out by now. I need nice calm wind to fly it in and haven't had it yet (at least not when I had time to fly). If it was more modern foam or composite like some of my others no big deal. But if you've ever built a balsa flyer re-building one sucks! My son won with it in a couple of straight aerobatic contests (not that vertical dancing BS) down in FL. It's still a little bad ass flying weedeater. I'm going to try again tomorrow, I'll post some pics, I just took it apart and travel packed it. I might go to RC Park nearby tomorrow if the winds good.
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2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
Jackstraw replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Confirmed very small and brief "tornado" in southern IN this morning. I'm a dunce. I had never heard of an EFU rating lol. https://www.weather.gov/ind/July16thTOR -
FrankenKorn doing it's thing. It blows me away how fast this high fructose fat machine of a plant grows today. I swear, on a quiet evening on the porch I can hear it growing lol.
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Ditto. I try to explain to people around here what it's like down there, especially inland. They just don't understand that you can actually adapt to it. I had people from here come down to vacation for a week and leave after 3 days lmao. I couldn't figure out why every one moved so slow down there when I first moved there from FL (beach FL mind you with life saving sea breezes). I mean it is very noticeable they move at a different pace in the low country. Then the full force of summer hit, for like 5 months, and I got it lol. I started calling it slow country instead of low country.
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It will be really nice to get a perfectly timed pop up storm in this pattern to give a quick cool down and have one enjoyable (moderately anyway) evening. This 80 degrees at midnight crap is still giving me flashbacks. Anything after 6. Anything earlier would suck. They need to come out for localized advisory's for early-mid afternoon showers in this setup. Something like an Emergency Sauna Advisory lol.
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Well the tree and power line trucks are gone. I swear you'd have thought we got hit by a hurricane by as many of them that were all over this area until yesterday. Took a drive over the weekend and it was pretty bad for the trees, big trees, I mean 2-3 footers, 6in-1ft limbs down everywhere. From my previous hurricane life conditions were similar to a slow approaching hurricane as the specific area around me was hammered with up to a half foot of rain so we were already flooding when that line hit. That meant the trees and the ground were pre-soaked and primed to fall if there were strong enough winds and there were. Easily close to 1 min sustained strong TS force with Cat 1, maybe Cat 2 gusts through that area. Eerily similar to how widespread tree damage is caused along the coast in strong TS's/weak Hurricanes only without a storm surge. Been awhile since I've seen that much widespread tree damage around here, especially central Madison over into Delaware and Blackford counties. Along with the gusting "almost a D word" line there was also a significant downburst, IMO, through that area as a pre-frontal cell that blew up ahead of that line was consumed within it. You can see it in these 2 radar images from KIND's event page. The first Image, its in front of the main line as it was blowing up just SW of Marion and the second, you can almost see the exact shape of it embedded within the line just ENE of its previous position almost directly S of Marion. What was even more interesting, to me anyway, was a very small ragged "donut hole" type feature immediately behind it. That "donut hole" artifact or whatever it was passed right over my position where I nearly hit a tree as it came down. I don't think its radar shadowing or anything like you would see during a hurricane. I really think, IMO, its a radar image of a downburst or microburst (are there Sting Jets in severe lines?lol) from or enhanced by that rapidly forming small SUP out ahead, possibly from it collapsing within the line accelerating the forward "gust front" even more. I mean that thing shot up to 55kft in like 20min on Radarscope before the "Meg" line ate it lol. That's why I was chasing it. It had a rapidly lowering wall cloud, a good hail core (2-2.5 inchers reported directly under its position in the Alexandria, Summitville areas) and was just forming a nice tail/hook on radar (you can see that a bit in the first image). Back flow was ramping up into that little SUPs gut as the updraft accelerated. Went from maybe 15 to 20KTs, more parallel flow from the SSW, then suddenly veered to easily 30-35KTs from the SSE as I got about 2 miles S of it. I'm more than likely over analyzing it lol. It more likely the ton of very localized rain that resulted in so many large trees and limbs concentrated in that area as opposed to more spread out in other areas. I counted at least 65 entire trees larger than 2 feet either uprooted or snapped just on my 2 hour drive. North and south, where they didn't get massively presoaked there was not nearly as much concentrated tree damage though. But those radar images kind of puzzled me when KIND put them out Sunday triggering the ADHD non scientist in me One of the stranger storm chases I've done. Wasn't prepared, very chaotic spur of the moment chase looking out the windows, at the radar on the phone at 45 to 50mph on country roads (around Moonville IN, the worst place to chase lol), in and out of densely wooded areas along White River and suddenly dodging falling trees and sideways rain all at the same time lol. Whatever, sorry for the long post, I'm just out of heat therapy but it was nutz lol. (Don't get on me about safety, y'all have done it before lmao) https://www.weather.gov/ind/june182025severe
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95/75 nearly every day for 5 months is SE US living at it's finest lol. Then break out the giant tiger mosquitos that can drain a pint per bite. The old saying in South Calalacky if you ain't on the coast your toast lol. Usually the first time it gets like that around here I go into a few days of therapy from having flashbacks causing heat trauma related PTSD
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Here's a pic of it showing a nicely tilted mini updraft mini SUP that shot up to about 50kft with some low hanging fruit lol. It actually spit out some pea size hail, you can see a bit of a "mini hail core" in that pic lol. Had some weak rotation on it. Enough fruit to get some local kids excited out there chasing scud. Some wimpy plains chasing right there lol. Yeah glad it missed us. Hope the ring of fire stays away too next week. My goodness is it gonna get humid around here. Got a feeling the mosquito hatchery is about ready to burst. Still ROFL, Bob Uecker, Ha!!
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Good thing I just bought new tires yesterday. I was trying to get in front of a small cell in front of the main line of storms that was rotating and had a nice wall cloud on it when the gust front from the line caught me from behind. I mean wind went from 0 to 70 or 80 in a flash. This damn tree came down about 50 yards in front of me as I was going about 45mph. I think my old 10 year old tires would've probably killed me lol. Lots of really big trees, limbs, fences, sheds some roofs and barns blown down between Lapel and Muncie. Really strong microburst downdraft through that area as the trees weren't "blowing" sideways it was the wind blowing the trees actually down towards the ground. You could feel the wind coming down like a hammer. Temp went from 85 to 66 in about 90 seconds. One of the weirdest things I've ever been caught in. I drove home and put my underwear in the washer Got up this morning and we got another 3 in and its still raining. This area is flooded pretty bad.
