Jackstraw

Just got back in from my first chance to play in some snow all season (main reason for my anxiety with this system lol). Best guess 3-4 with some 18 inch drifts. Snow stopped around 10 but was still blowing pretty good. I expected about twice that out of part 1 which would've been roughly half of a basic model consensus at 10-1 ratios yesterday. Never do, never will buy into gfs/Nam krazy kuchera 20 inches like they were spitting out but the euro was consistently showing 10 maybe 12 10-1 with part 1 for here. Like has been mentioned, that damn front basically stopped for about 6 hours 25 miles to my NW. It was no speed demon but I thought it would be snowing by 1 or 2pm. A little concerned about suppression with part 2. Lets see how this next wave bounces around the TN valley. If I can squeeze another 10 I'll be very happy lol.

Just got back from a ride. its knarley already out here in the sticks. Roads are drifting amazingly well. All the snow thats fallen is fluff. still nice nickle dendrites with a sustained 20-25 mph N wind. I'm estimating close to 3 inches so far. It really hasnt let up. I'm really surprised at seeing over 1 foot drifts already. If it keeps up we're gonna be snowed in by morning. Snow plow pic from about 15 min ago on HWY 28. I love the snow in the headlights when driving, reminds me of blank tv channels on the TV's when I was kid. Yes you turn the brightness down and it looked the bridge viewer on Star Trek lmao. You know the tv's, you had to get off yer ass to change the channel lol.

Here, take a look at the 21Z RAP

Think we finally flipped to SN for the foreseeable future hopefully. Waiting on that transition hurt as bad as stubbing your toe after getting up for a 3am pisser.

18Z GFS hittin' the glass pipe again? Still has 15 here when all is said and done and I can still see grass right now. Ill take it lol

The northern part of the front is painstakingly creeping E/SE. Ive flipped back and forth from rain, pingers and snow 3 times in the last hour.

Better than 4 days to get 2 like it did here in that paltry clipper fest last weekend lol

Traffic in Indy could be a nightmare in a couple hours. Transition zone is supposed to cross into Indy in about an hour right before rush hour per KIND update. They drive like idiots down there (as they do in any larger metros) lol. Also first semi crash on 65 south of LAF. imagine that https://511in.org/@-88.6322,40.09838,7?show=incidents,normalCameras,weatherWarningsAreaEvents,plowCameras,flooding

Nice, thanks for sharing that. You could really see that turbine speed up as it transitioned to snow that was cool. Still hoping for big numbers. Models are trying to kiss us. I just drove up to Nevada to see some flakes, it started kicking really good there. Yes Im impatient as hell with this one, its the first single snow over an inch for the season here lol.

Pingertown beginning. Drove about 10 miles to the NW and the snow was kicking in. It was sticking quick should have no problem quickly accumulating once it gets here.

KOKK Kokomo airport been reporting -SN for a couple hours now. Temps here have been a steady 35 for the last 6 hours after dropping from 48 around 2am. Kinda stalled at the moment. Per meso that weak shortwave traversing far southern IN/OH river seems to have pumped a bit of a pesky warm nose up through SE/EC IN. Hopefully as it passes NE the next hour or 2 we can start to transition. Think I'm going to need at least 3 or 4 inches from this first part to get above 12. Anything less than 12 is a bit of a disappointment.

For you younger members, that's a yardstick lol.

This is just down right scary

Overnight AFDs gonna be interesting

00Z Euro keeps getting drier. Its not a lack of overlapping. Im wondering where these 2-3 in Pwats that forecasters were worried about a couple days ago are. There was strong wording about potential flooding to our south. I know its a bit early but meso is barely showing 1 in coming in from the gulf. The upslope moisture occurring seems to be from tapping into the Pac jet, 700mb quite saturated. I get a weaker surface reflection in part 2 but complete fizzle? Im probably wrong but something fishy seems to be going on lol.

maybe due to open lake water? points E and SE are turning faster than the timeline LOT posted.

00Z Canuk didnt really benefit anyone to the N but it chopped the legs out from underneath us in the south

Ohhhh, no you didunt! lol

850 freezing line is outrunning the surface freezing level fairly quickly, been posted and some AFD's commenting on that. Surface VTM for what its worth is setting up pretty much where most models have been forecasting highest totals for the last 36 hours. Think part 1 could overperform if it can hold on to the 700mb moisture for any length of time. Part 2 is beginning to somewhat amp up with >1 PWATS finally moving N of TN valley. Just my armchair take. I used to get chastised for posting HRRR and RAP snow maps but they seem to be all the rage now lol.

03Z RAP cracking me up lol

18Z RAP soundings now have me under 6 hours of pingers and FZ. Better not have to give up a foot of snow for that just so the folks on Northern edge can get 3 or 4 more inches. Thats meltdown criteria lol.

Never seen a mesoscale surface pressure map like this. Its almost symmetrical lol. Can definitely see the area where the clash will begin.

KIND has slowed the onset of liquid here by 6 hours

Looks like the GFS has a stronger upper trough over Hudson bay reinforcing the southerly cold air push suppressing the surface wave. GDPS has that trough weaker and flatter allowing the surface wave to hook a little longer before shunting east. Maybe

I sure hope the ice totals on the far south edge are way overdone. I wouldn't wish 2 inches of FZ on anyone. Those totals could be pretty devastating across 8 states.