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Everything posted by Jackstraw
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Great time to clean the freezer and not be in a hurry lol.
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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Jackstraw replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Man, that cutoff to the south is just brutal. I don't know if I can handle a 10" snow with 25" just 50 miles to my NW. We always get robbed -
I can attest. Had to go to Marion and it was some heavy heavy stuff. Texas flakes. WAA finally moved in but that 2 hour burst protected our snow pack. I still have 4 inches of concrete on the ground. Was very concerned we'd lose it before this cold spell and have a barren tundra freeze out. Me being a clipper fan, if we've got a nice layer of glacier on the ground and get into a clipper or quasi clipper pattern for 7-10 days that results in a decent winter for us. We get a few weeks of not having to worry about precip types. If they're hybrid clippers just means they're juicier and instead of 1-2 we might get 2-4. 3 of those in a week on top of a 4 or 5 inch glacier, with clippers being normally windy, usually leads to some really nice drifting. I've seen a clipper drop 4 inches on top of a 2 or 3 inch glacier with 40 mph gusts and temps in the teens create 3 foot drifts in spots. Horizontal avalanches is what I call them lol. I love clippers in our climo
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Forecast low of 24 here. Current temp of 13. Was forecasted to be a high of 36 earlier Wed. never got above 25. Talk about underestimating a mini glacier snowpack.
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I like cold but please no 2014 repeat....
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That stick is slanted about 3 degrees to the right, about 87 degrees instead of 90. Penalty! lol. Congrats
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^ I'll run out of bandwidth before it hits
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As you know I am the King of the Redneck Slant Stick. Reviewing reports, will be issuing penalties soon
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Well you could've cut the corner for the mail person for gods sake lol
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Same here, hard to measure. We're some reports of 7-8 over in Grant county and I think MIE only reported 2.5. Huge cutoff there in a span of 20 miles. I too was getting excited for a potential double digit. Don't know about up that way but when we did a switch over to some pingers then rain for about 30 min the faucet shut off. Got dry slotted hard here, for almost 4 hours of nothing. Wasn't expecting that. Yeah it was a blast driving around. Some on the board may not get it but when you live in rural areas you dont have to worry much about the other guy. I will say when it switched to rain the traction level went to -100 and I limped home. Was lol at the TV news in Indy. I mean ok, it was a record snowfall for the date, but lord talk about hype over 3 or 4 inches on a weekend. Wet stuff didnt really hit here until the latter half of accumulations. Such is life here in the hinterlands lol. 5-6 is still respectable for our area. Waiting on the March 2018 repeat lol
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Besides the fact me and the dogs are now in trouble think that little break cost me an inch or 2. Heading back wsw now, 1/4 mile vis again. Seriously half dollars
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Back to full +SN now. Much bigger flakes now.
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Got about 3 here so far. Beatin down by the WAA that I should never question. Literally less than 5 miles here between an inch and 3 or so. 2 miles to my N still SN. Walkin the tightrop
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Its freakin pinger city here after I saw that flash. Im 20 miles east, heading north to get back into that wall. Damn thunder pingers
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I now 2nd that
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Not seeing the typical plaster snow that was expected. Seeing a dry slot in S IN working its way behind this incoming heavy WAA band. Hopefully the main system moves east some, fills it in, before it gets here. An inch so far, and its not wet. Sure it will be later as that LLJ cranks in a few hours. No rain which is good. Warm LL temps weren't forecast to really make a march N here until 06-09Z Shall see, just SN atm. Hoosier and ChicagoWX know where I'm at so of course it had to start with pingers. Always a damn pinger mixed in there somewhere around here lol.
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Wife has to work till 10. Told me sternly no snow chasing this evening I could here my old truck hollering so Im heading out to witness the "wall" and will take my lumps lol. Its been over a year since Berthas been in 4wd. Gotta exercise them old bones. Had a few pingers. Still some dry air issues but dont think temps are gonna be an issue for most if not all of this.
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There's some really intense shear and vorticity near the center of this low visible on Sat.
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That big guy behind him cracks me the hell up every time I see this lol. Sorry for OT
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Nice tip from Ryan at KIND in the near term... .NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/... Issued at 332 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Well...it is about go time with our impending winter storm as an area of precipitation largely in the form of rain approaches steadily from the southwest this afternoon. 20Z temperatures are largely in the mid and upper 30s over the forecast area currently. Moving into the nowcast phase at this point with the onset of heavy snow now just a few hours out and expected to impact the northeast half of the area from late afternoon/early evening into the overnight. For those that might be alarmed at the fact that the bulk of the precipitation approaching is in the form of light rain...do not be. This was and has been expected. Some patience is going to be required to let the atmosphere do what it needs to in order for snow to commence by early evening at most. First off...a cold dry airmass remains over the region and some time will be needed to fully saturate the column. That will take place over the next few hours courtesy of increasing moisture advection into the region as a low level jet strengthens. This feature will work in tandem with increasing isentropic lift as well. The kicker though to help introduce the snow will be the evaporative cooling processes which will serve to cool the lower levels as moistening takes place. With wet bulb temps remaining in the lower 30s...should see surface temps fall back close to freezing and allow a quick changeover to snow by 22-23Z for much of the northeast half of the forecast area.
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KIND pulled the trigger on warnings for it's northern tier.
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Just give me a week of clippers like the old days
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Think there's going to be some discussions between KIND and KIWX on whether to upgrade to warnings or or issue advisories with the northern tier and southern tier respectively during the overnight AFD's. I can see points either way. I know the overlords to the NW never pay attention to us lol but I'm serious, this area from about 20 miles N of I70 to about 70 miles N of I70 in eastern IL, Central IN and West Central Ohio has got to be a nightmare for forecasters. It can more often than not be like nowcast central. It's not like I80. You bust the forecast here its the difference of 6 or 8 inches or 0 with ice or nothing. There's no cushion up or down for the most part, no well they said 8 I only got 2. I'm going for 8 with a better than 2-1 chance of busting low with a high of 10. IWX's call I think's good, Kokomowx's call is probably sweating less than I am. Placing all my bets on dynamic cooling and the fact forecast temps have been 2-4 degrees higher than observed for over the last month. Cards all in on this one with no arctic air, I must be nuts lol.
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It's taking the surface low on the perfect track for an I70 special, just south of the Oh river. With no impinging cold from the north don't know how much I buy it.
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I've been saying that about Santa Clause for 50 years lol