Jackstraw

Gotta extra big stocking hanging that'll take a 30lb bag of Kingsford cause I'm sure by just saying "Lock It In" Santa is gonna fill it up for me believing in fantasy

We'll see how this pans out but certainly looking like a decent Omega block out west. That should keep any moisture running up the eastern seaboard for the next 10 days at least keeping us zzz to a flurry or drizzle. That's fine with me. I'm ready to set the rest of Dec. up for the last week. I think 2020 owes the entire sub a 3-6 blanket the last week of the year.

If that run pans out grab some popcorn and watch the NE/NYC forums eat their own lmao.

Hard to measure here, had some melting here and there plus graupel, really fine flakes and the pleasant sound of pingers at 5am today lol. 1.5 or so mixed bag of frozen, 90% from that lake streamer. Missed double that by 25 miles. Got .5 ice cold rain Sun>Mon morning.

HiRes models not looking good for NW OH NE IN. They were showing an enhanced defo band lasting through the night but a weaker surface low seems to be escaping faster. At least y'all got "measurable" snow. My LES tickler has about petered out. Got an inch once temps dropped this evening. Combination of grapul and micro flakes due to warm 850's from the NW?? lol

What I've really noticed missing in winters of late are clippers. 6-7 years ago could at least guarantee a couple 3 or 4 day clipper trains. Here in the hinterlands those were money for us. I don't think I've seen a real clipper in 3 years.

For what it's worth the 00Z HRRR came in stronger and a bit more west longer with the surface low than most other guidance. Gave OH, Eastern IN, KY and TN a lot more love at 10:1 than previous runs. It still looks skittish due to warm boundary temps but it was a pretty decent tick up. Keeps the surface low under 990 and parks it in western PA and NY through the end of the run. Could be even better news for the N OH folks in the snow belt. Btw, it also hammers parts of the NC/TN mountains with spots up to 20 inches.

Pretty bad when our only hope is LES 100 miles from the lake lol

When Cyclone and Hawkeye are zzzzz it usually means those of us that live in the east ghetto around I70 have something to look forward to lol.

Kinda crazy how the Canuk is just locked on to the streamer off of Lake Michigan. None of the other models are nearly as robust. Will be interesting to see how that pans out. Also, has the northern stream energy even been sampled yet?

Boundary temp hell we all will be in (insert Yoda emoji)

Saw that. Euro is a wash, rinse, repeat at the surface from the impending mess. Could hardly buy any App runners the last couple years. Be a shame to waste 'em all this early lol.

Save some gas. Just head up to the west slope mountains NC/TN even WV. Less chance of slop with altitude and much much better scenery lol.

I'm taking my streamer and running with it

Think you're correct. As of now looks like the Euro/Canuk camp vs the GFS/NAM camp with the rebellious UKIE not buying any of it lol.

Now that's a streamer off the lake lol...

The Canuk has been much more consistent with it's own H5 forecast for midnight Monday than than the GFS and even the Euro. Very little deviation since Wed. Not saying it's right just seems more consistent against itself.

00z GFS is pretty wonky. Bounces that surface low around like its in a pachinko machine.

Euro also trying to give the western part of the sub some sloppy love right behind this one lol.

Euro slop fest for sure. More typical app runner kitchen sink storm like we're used to lol.

Can maybe see it on Kutchera ratio. Nice stripe of low ratio cement off the lake on this mornings GFS.

Definitely a tick up for you!

Euro looks a bit slower and weaker than it was 00Z last night. It's cutting off from the northern jet much later this run. A lot of those crazy totals on the previous runs were a perfect long lasting northerly fetch along almost the entire length of a warm Lake Michigan for upwards of 36 hours. LES on steroids. This run, still anaomolis for this time of year, makes a little more sense, to me anyways. GFS is moving closer to this also. I think in the end could see a foot in some places maybe a more wide spread 6-10. Kuchera ratios are lower so a percentage could be sloppy.