Jackstraw

Nice, thanx. Around 20 seconds in looks like a scene from Ice Road Truckers lol

Can't burst my bubble, I live in north central IN climo hell lol. HRRR gives me a little love too with wave 3. It'll all turn to mud anyway, I'll take the eye candy if I can get it

Got a surprise 1.5 SN with wave 1, just enough early morning ice out of wave 2 to turn my dogs onto Nazi Punks F&$k Off, I'll gladly take this out of wave 3 and cash out until the 15th

HRRR been trimming the southern extent of ice in Indiana but cranking it in northern IN and far southern MI and NW OH over the last 6 hours.... .

Weird, I'm melting off the roof here. Windshield is water drops. Had some ice on the porch a few hours ago but it's melted. I'm up to 32.5 now. Gone up a degree an hour since 4am.

As I typed that the surface freeze line moved N of Indy. I'll be above 0C by 9am. Looks like if anyone is going to get ice it'll be NW IL/ SE IA. Most of MO at or above 0C now except for far NW. I really am surprised a 1006 low is lifting this much warmth this aggressively. I was thinking noon to 2pm to hit 0C from an overnight low of -5C. Not complaining, only thing I hate more than ice is mud. My temps up to 31F now. Guess I'll get the greater of 2 evils lol.

Was watching this earlier. Surface freezing is just south of I70 right now. According to meso analysis 925 freeze line is up to Ft. Wayne and 850's are already half way through MI. Had some light ZR a little while ago, maybe some ZR drizzle now with a surface temp of 30 and climbing already. WAA is going to blow through most of IN if this keeps up. Don't think we have much to worry about except lots of cold ass rain. I would venture to say even points to the far NW may come out better. Looks like as always the WAA overperforms the models. Kinda surprised. I would think as this thing shears out the pump would weaken. Mediocre Pacific heat pumped by that extra tropical storm NE of HI last week along with untouched GOM torch water and damn near 0 arctic air mass leads to the GFS solution Saturday for us. A freakin mess lol.

How the hell can a warm blooded hairy ass animal go outside for 30 min and come back in looking like a frozen freak show? I have a new ZR gauge.

Just let the dogs in. No precip 30 min ago when I let them out. They look like Billy Idol twins now, freakin frozen Godzilla spikes on their backs lol.

This is a bit surprising, or not lol. Freezing level is really really shallow already, maybe 2k feet. Depth of the warmth is under 700 mb right now. Models had it deeper yesterday.....

06Z HRRR sounding in my area around 10am Fri. Some deep saturation and pretty strong forcing. That's a deep ass warm tongue if I've ever seen one. Similar soundings a couple hours either side. Will be interesting if it pans out....

Ripped a Gomer surprise 1.5" earlier. Slick as a Witches T$%t out.

That would make sense. Not sure how cold for how long they were up there but hard surface temps would lag behind air temp increases also, especially if air temps were jumping up quickly. We had some decent ice here about 3 years ago with the air temp around 27 over the dark hours rising to 35 by early morning when the precip hit. Had a nice glaze over everything by noon with a temp, and the sun, of around 35-36 before it crashed. It was weird because the glaze all thawed at once on a sunny afternoon and just started falling off the trees all at once.

Be interesting to see where the confluence zone sets up between the 2 waves. Couple models were pinstriping some decent snow just north of it yesterday morning. My temps have been actually dropping as opposed to rising as forecasted. Been at 32 most of the day now down to 29 and 0 precip thus far. Precip shield is well N/NW still. Hey man, I can dream

I was surprised how well it did (at least against itself) with the tropics this year. It was pretty tight on the H5 anomalies over the summer which could've made it look good tropic wise especially with GOM tracks. To be honest, this past summer the H5 setup resembled what's going on now.

Cudos to those that got the hammer. Those that got the sink, models seem to be giving you a second chance SE bump with wave 2. Looks like there will even be a moisture starved wave 3 that could toss those of us in the orphanage an inch here and there maybe Sunday. NYD is forecast to be the warmest at KIND since 2000, ROCK! There's plenty of consistency over the next 10 days from the models... for absolutely nothing. WTF do they know! lol

Nice and most deserving of late. Looks like you're gonna get to keep it for at least a week too.

As the mania of the front end thump wanes to the reality of the 850 devil, it can be very depressing so feel free to message me, it's the story of my winters lately here in the hinterlands and I have a way to deal with it

The models recently are like watching NeckCar at Talladega. Whomever is leading, the next lap they're liable to be 20th the following lap. But there's gonna be 2 or 3 big ones they catch, just a matter of where east of the Mississippi it happens

Good job, now put it back when it's over and you can act like the nasties never happened!

Saw that on Scope also (seeing as how it's the only decent radar left!). Meso was showing some decent 6-6.5 lapse rates moving up ahead of the mixing line. Don't think I've ever seen gravity wave depictions on radar in a winter storm.

I'm down near the end of that proboscis band and my sounding is almost as good... except it'll last 5 minutes lol....

Pretty rippin' sounding in Chicago Tues. evening...

The 00Z GFS is just a big fat icey, sleety, rainy kiss my ass kitchen sink mess. Just what I'm used to the past few years