Jackstraw

Nice LR discussion from Ryan at KIND..... .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 241 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020 The second part of the storm system set to impact the region the second half of the week remains the primary focus for the extended and unfortunately at this stage of the game...is offering more questions than answers on specific impacts for central Indiana on New Years Eve and New Years Day. A strong ridge across the eastern half of the country will be slowly but steadily flattened by a strong upper low that will pinwheel out of northern Mexico and across Texas Wednesday night and Thursday before lifting north into the Great Lakes by late Friday. There has been a noted westward shift in the model suite over the last 24 to 36 hours with respect to the upper low track due to more energy aloft carving out the massive trough over the central portion of the country and a strengthening of the upper ridge off the Florida coast. The upper low takes on a negative tilt which pulls it further west as well. That being said...the model suite is all over the place with its handling of the secondary surface wave set to develop along the frontal boundary and lift northeast towards the Ohio Valley by late Thursday. While there has been a westward shift at the surface as well...the main operational models with the exception of the GGEM are further west than the ensemble means. It should be noted that a surface wave track due north or slightly east of north off the Louisiana coast is a bit of a climatologically unfavorable track for a surface wave. Just another point to toss into the jumble of thoughts this afternoon. A general blend at this point is preferred until better model agreement can develop. So...what can we take away at this point 4-5 days out? Confidence is high in a higher impact storm moving through the Ohio Valley and central Indiana for New Years Eve and New Years Day. But that is about all that can be said right now. The lack of model agreement and fluidity of the entire suite lends no confidence into the details of the forecast and impacts...namely precip type duration and intensity. The storm will have access to a rich plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will ensure modest precip amounts from Wednesday night into Friday. Expect rain to continue as the precip type to start Wednesday night with the potential for some wintry mischief on the northern flank of the precip shield late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as low level thermals become marginal. There is likely to be a lull in precip coverage on Thursday before moisture returns with the approach of the second surface low late Thursday into Friday. Storm track will become critical at this point in determining precip type but the potential for at least some snow and/or ice accums is a possibility that needs to be considered. A track that ends up east would bring a greater risk for either snow or ice but even should the track of the low remain further west...an easterly flow in the low levels Thursday night into Friday morning as the low approaches could present some problems over the forecast area with an increased potential for an icy mess in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet. Expect at least another 36-48 hours before we can gain more clarity on the details with this storm system and the likely impacts locally here in central Indiana. The primary area of upper energy will come onshore over California on Monday with better sampling of the feature coming thereafter. At this point...prepare for a higher impact winter storm over the Ohio Valley from the second half of Wednesday into New Years Day with locally heavy rainfall...a wintry mix or perhaps some accumulations of snow and/or ice all within the range of possibilities. Dry and chilly weather will follow the departure of this system for next weekend.

Final call, frozen mud stalagmites and some dandruff falling . I wasn't touching this one with a 10 ft North Pole lol.

Woke up to a nice fluffy 4. Finally looks like winter out

Who am I foolin lol. Might not see snow till next month. Hazard of my climo. That FG band was pretty broken up when it was S/SW of Indy. Filled in nicely as it moved NNE. If we can keep some decent UL forcing going for the next 6 hours or so could end up being the first healthy grass topper around here. Definitely some good snow globe stuff out right now. IWX might wake up to a surprise

Nightly gathering of dogs and prostate relief lol. Nice big flakes at a good clip. .5" in like 15 min. Too tired or I'd stay up and enjoy it

Think I'm gonna go a last minute 2. Returns were weakening but are showing some decent FG recovery, although light. Shall see, sometimes these late night systems can surprise. Still be waiting on my Xmas miracle lol.

Gotta extra big stocking hanging that'll take a 30lb bag of Kingsford cause I'm sure by just saying "Lock It In" Santa is gonna fill it up for me believing in fantasy

We'll see how this pans out but certainly looking like a decent Omega block out west. That should keep any moisture running up the eastern seaboard for the next 10 days at least keeping us zzz to a flurry or drizzle. That's fine with me. I'm ready to set the rest of Dec. up for the last week. I think 2020 owes the entire sub a 3-6 blanket the last week of the year.

If that run pans out grab some popcorn and watch the NE/NYC forums eat their own lmao.

Hard to measure here, had some melting here and there plus graupel, really fine flakes and the pleasant sound of pingers at 5am today lol. 1.5 or so mixed bag of frozen, 90% from that lake streamer. Missed double that by 25 miles. Got .5 ice cold rain Sun>Mon morning.

HiRes models not looking good for NW OH NE IN. They were showing an enhanced defo band lasting through the night but a weaker surface low seems to be escaping faster. At least y'all got "measurable" snow. My LES tickler has about petered out. Got an inch once temps dropped this evening. Combination of grapul and micro flakes due to warm 850's from the NW?? lol

What I've really noticed missing in winters of late are clippers. 6-7 years ago could at least guarantee a couple 3 or 4 day clipper trains. Here in the hinterlands those were money for us. I don't think I've seen a real clipper in 3 years.

For what it's worth the 00Z HRRR came in stronger and a bit more west longer with the surface low than most other guidance. Gave OH, Eastern IN, KY and TN a lot more love at 10:1 than previous runs. It still looks skittish due to warm boundary temps but it was a pretty decent tick up. Keeps the surface low under 990 and parks it in western PA and NY through the end of the run. Could be even better news for the N OH folks in the snow belt. Btw, it also hammers parts of the NC/TN mountains with spots up to 20 inches.

Pretty bad when our only hope is LES 100 miles from the lake lol

When Cyclone and Hawkeye are zzzzz it usually means those of us that live in the east ghetto around I70 have something to look forward to lol.

Kinda crazy how the Canuk is just locked on to the streamer off of Lake Michigan. None of the other models are nearly as robust. Will be interesting to see how that pans out. Also, has the northern stream energy even been sampled yet?

Boundary temp hell we all will be in (insert Yoda emoji)

Saw that. Euro is a wash, rinse, repeat at the surface from the impending mess. Could hardly buy any App runners the last couple years. Be a shame to waste 'em all this early lol.

Save some gas. Just head up to the west slope mountains NC/TN even WV. Less chance of slop with altitude and much much better scenery lol.

I'm taking my streamer and running with it

Think you're correct. As of now looks like the Euro/Canuk camp vs the GFS/NAM camp with the rebellious UKIE not buying any of it lol.

Now that's a streamer off the lake lol...

The Canuk has been much more consistent with it's own H5 forecast for midnight Monday than than the GFS and even the Euro. Very little deviation since Wed. Not saying it's right just seems more consistent against itself.