Jackstraw

Should be a million infected "officially" worldwide by Tuesday or Wednesday. Will probably see a 1 day of 1k deaths in the US by next week, far from over. CDC reports 23k deaths from flu this flu season which runs from October to May the peak being February then dropping off drastically moving into March. Confirmed Covid19 infection rates will climb as testing gets better so not a good analogue. Deaths confirmed from the Covid19 infection are a better analogue sadly. With roughly 2200 deaths from this virus so far we've hit 10% of the flu deaths over this 8 month flu season in roughly 3 weeks with the curve continuing to rise. Even comparing to the 2017-2018 analogous flu season where death rates were 2- 3 times the average, this virus is winning at the moment.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1116 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 INC075-290330- /O.CON.KIWX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200329T0330Z/ Jay IN- 1116 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN JAY COUNTY... At 1115 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Portland, moving east northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Jay County, including the following locations... College Corner, Boundary City, Liber, Blaine, Collett, Bluff Point, New Mount Pleasant, Salamonia, Brice and Como. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 4032 8522 4037 8522 4051 8480 4033 8481 TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 252DEG 53KT 4037 8499 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN

Lucky you lol. That OFB from this morning settled just N of IND. Every round of storms ended up riding it veering just to my south. It feels and sounds like garden variety Aug thunderstorms out there for the last 2 hours. Heck of a light show. Saw some models late last night ramp some storms up after midnight with the cold front. Not looking too sporty now.

Lots of flooding reports coming out in central IN, stranded vehicles, water rescues.

SPC meso has the shear relaxing 15-20 KT's over the next couple hours. I'm with you, may not be a major outbreak but it won't take much to light the candle. The possibility of a long tracker in the PDS area is still there. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a watch issued farther east later this evening along the warm front. KIND has a growing concern for that possibility.

Took me a year to figure out what CAD was when I moved there lol

Friend N of Noblesville recorded 2.00 inches of rain in 45 minutes along with 1.5 inch hail before one of those stones broke his rain gauge

You're about a month away from 95/75 every day with 90% humidity lol

Golf balls 15 miles to my south, they can have them.

Froggy cell in IA Tor warned now

Cell split in SE IA, looking froggy

Tor watch incoming for MO and southern IL

Agree. Also storms are firing along a prominent OFB from this mornings convection.along I-70 in IN. I'm still concerned about some unusually large hail for central IN. I hate hail lol. Edit: That WF is also meandering. Temps dropped 12 degrees in the last 90 min with no precip.

SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 67 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of much of Indiana much of Ohio western Pennsylvania the northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible

70/65 here 48/48 25 miles north.

I was not aware. The 2 costliest hail storms in US history, 4/10/2001 and 4/28/2012 happened right around where this is currently going on, at least according to "wiki facts". Thought it was a Northern Plains Texas thing. I've been caught in some 2 incher's and scared the crap out of me. Think I'd take my chances with an EF0 hitting my property than baseballs flying around at 60mph lol.

Huh...You said peas...huhhuh

The biggest silver lining in that article is thank your choice/no choice of deity that none of those had the asymptomatic characteristics of this one. That is what really differentiates this one from the others. Neither SARS nor MERS had substantial asymptomatic characteristics. That is people were sick before they could pass along the virus (That's why the majority of initial SARS cases were in clinical settings like hospitals etc.) therefore once identified a containment strategy could be implemented, ending with only about 8000 cases and about 800 deaths in SARS case, less with MERS. Ebola is a different kind of virus spread by direct exchange of bodily fluids, has very short incubation time and quite obvious symptoms so it is much harder to spread and "easier" to contain when an outbreak occurs. But it is also 1000% more deadly and scary. That's why it gets the widespread attention when an outbreak occurs. What we are slowly discovering is that this virus has much higher asymptomatic characteristics than SARS or MERS. It's starting to look like a person can show no symptoms and spread the virus and/or very mild cold like symptoms and spread the virus. I really think this is the case and this is the MAIN reason this sneaky little booger got on the fast train to where it's at. Viruses by their very nature exploit weaknesses in their hosts in order to replicate (technically they're not living things like we think of, they're copy machines in a sense). This one "found" a weakness not just in our bodies but in our overlying social structure. Double whammy. Force Concentration if you want to think of it as warfare lol. I think in the coming months and years we may discover that this virus possibly originated in extreme rural China months or even years earlier where populations are much more sparse, medical care much more inadequate or non existent, hiding itself as a cold or the flu or pneumonia, originating from mutated bat virus, infecting an intermediate host that has close contact with humans like chickens or pigs for example. (i.e. SARS host was the Masked Palm Civet which is wild caught and served in restaurants in China). That intermediate host is key to interspecies transmission of viruses. A virus just doesn't "appear" out of nowhere at a seafood market in a city of 11 million, it hitched a ride. Wuhan is the major trade and transportation point for central China, makes sense it would end up there, and by so, be discovered there because it wasn't knocking off a couple old farmers a couple times a month, it became focused and noticed when it started knocking off a bunch of old citizens all at once. I've always been fascinated by viruses. For something so simple in structure they are so difficult to predict, and for that matter, prevent. They are probably the oldest most important genetic material on the planet and also the most deadly. Fascinating that single nanoscopic strings of RNA/DNA that aren't really "alive" yet can evolve/replicate on their own and affect, shape and impact all of the complex living biology on this planet. Truly the missing link between rock and life. The TRUE silver lining will be that we get rid of our arrogance that we have teched ourselves into some insane darwinian future, that we be humbled by this little string of RNA, and properly educate and prepare because this viruses really nasty uncle is lurking somewhere. Mother Nature has warned us. Yeah I'm bored lol.

Think I'm gonna cover the car windows tonight. Been a little concerned since this morning about some hailers coming through in the wee hours early tomorrow as that warm front approaches.

Random sampling always a good thing.

Hate to admit a poor choice from my youth, a weekend in the county jail back in the early 80's , but that's how you kept a cigarette lit back when you could smoke but they wouldn't let you have a source of ignition, toss it from cell block to cell block to cell block 24/7. Newbies pulled the longest shifts. God forbid if it went out on your watch lol.

Starting a BratGrillThrowback afternoon a little early before a once again rainy late week/weekend settles in. At least it won't be a miserable 40/35 everyday

Read in a few places 10-20% of the data usually available to the models has been missing the last couple of weeks due to the reduction of commercial flights.

US hit 100 deaths in 24 hours for the first time.

Buckle up folks. I think the next 7-10 days are going to be the true test of peoples nerves. I hope people will keep their heads but from my experience in hurricane disasters its the period between 2 and 3 weeks where people start getting edgy. I honestly don't know how sustainable our current actions are either economically or socially.