Jackstraw

Nice. Rain wipes out .8 inches of snow. The NE forums got nothing on us lol

Well im not gonna bitch to much when I can do this in January lol...

I remember reading an IWX AFD earlier in the week that having such a stacked cutoff low like this in January is fairly rare, thereby cutting off any cold air intrusion from the polar jet. I'm pretty sure no matter what time of year, models tend to struggle at times with cutoff's. Maybe that's why there's been inconsistency right up to and during this event aside from slim +/- freezing level surface temps being so tight. My weenie ass is used to warm 850's nosing in but this whole system seems upside down with plenty of sub freezing air aloft but surface levels being stubborn. Seems to me this an early fall early spring type of scenario as opposed to middle of winter. Still hoping for a reach around lol

So is the Hi-Res GFS and the GEFS not the upgraded version?

IWX earlier today says it all... For Sunday through Thursday little if any precipitation is expected with seasonably mild temperatures for this time of year. Highs should be from around 35 to 40 each day with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s each night. Most noticeable will be the absence of arctic air with the continued pattern of above normal temperatures (Fort Wayne has only had 3 days the temperature has been below normal during the past nearly 5 weeks).

Long shots hit eventually no matter how many horses die

Maybe for you guys but it's done pretty well this season down here along the normal battleground RASN line.

Agreed. This pattern has resulted in personal model bias division just as much as the country lol.

Hitchcock weather around here. Visibility less than a mile, dreary drizzle. Perfect setting for a murder. Still holding out hope for a reach around couple inches tomorrow/tomorrow evening. The Canuk has been bery bery good to me this season, gonna ride that horse till she breaks. Gotta love closed stacked meandering lows in January........ .

Geting a little Full Metal Jacket hope, models actually trending to give us on the hot side a reach around Saturday. GFS is Gomer Pyle

Well at least we don't have to worry about this lmao...

I beginning to feel like the kid that never gets picked on either team in a scrimmage game

Got tickled by the southern edge of that plume off lake Michigan and got .75 of snow, more than Fridays storm lol.

As shitty as the models have been I'm riding the Canuk the rest of the winter......

With nothing but a possible dab the next 10 days around here on the models (except for the Canuk ), this January has the potential to be pretty much snowless here except for a couple dustings. If that pans out then I'll be looking for a Feb. early March big dog to bookend us the other 2/3rds to our average. Still learning the teleconection stuff but there were several really strong TC's in the WPAC late this year and am just curious if they just pumped extra heat into the northern latitudes and into the Pacific jet and how that influences the PV behavior. At least it doesn't look like the deep freeze is setting in over the next couple weeks. I might start to lose it if we start getting 1050-60 Canadian ridges suppressing the storm track south or east. Current pattern sucks but has a better chance for something as opposed to a deep cold snowless depre ..er..suppression.

Well we ended up with almost nada for winter precip, wasn't expecting much but more than we got. The freezing rain potential was destroyed by the high rain rates early this morning, (not complaining about that lol), we got roughly 1.25 liquid in this area. Now back to your regularly scheduled frozen mud stalagmites

Very Heavy rain at 34 right now. That Muncie sensor runs to high all the time but I noticed stations west to the border along 28 are also running 3-4 degrees higher than points N and S so that is a bit strange.

That big slug of moisture coming through central IL is riding that 32-33/35-40 gradient. HRRR, RAP and NAM are still showing .5 inch or more of ZR to the north of that temp gradient in areas, even as far south as here, over the next 6-8 hours. Hope that doesn't happen. Big trees falling on snoozers is never a good thing.

65 shutdown NW of Indy. Let the games begin

Haven't gotten anything the last few hours and I'm not complaining lol. Maybe this dry air pocket can hang on through the cold rain that's forecast. Wishful thinking

Been really dry here the last 90 minutes or so. Spitting occasional freezing drizzle/nano pingers if I could even call it that. Temps have held steady around 29 air, 27 ground. Quite surprised how long this low level dry air has held on but with no decent precip guess it's hard to saturate. Seems every return that passes over me starts producing farther to the north. I'll take it over slipping sliding mess.

Surface low seems weaker than modeled. Could perhaps delay WAA?

HRRR and RAP still bullish on fairly significant ice from N Central IL into N Western and N IN. Meso observations showing those areas have a while to go to recover above freezing. Perhaps they're onto something. Air temp here has actually dropped 3 degrees in the last 2 hours to 29 with light easterly yet dry wind. That won't bode well as this next band of heavier precip moves NE through Indy. My ground temps are still 27/28 degrees. Potential for sub freezing ground temps longer than forecast.

Just went from liquid/nano pingers to a nice burst of moderate snow. Oh the horror

It's the middle of January and we're talking 1 inch ground blizzards and nano pingers, what a pattern lol