Jackstraw

I don't think I've ever seen this much consistent inconsistency in the models in winter over the conus in my short years following. 1 or 2 hundred miles on tracks this far out, sure. But we've been seeing 3 to 5 hundred mile to shredded nothingness this winter. I know in the tropics models always struggle with weak systems and with weak steering. There really hasn't been strong ridges and strong lows this season and hardly any deep arctic air dropping down, for a lot of reasons that have been posted, and the baroclinic zone has been very low this winter IMO . I wonder if this is causing the problem with the models across the conus. With such a consistent weak split flow across the conus, as fine a resolution as some have (and that is totally subjective) it's just not fine enough to whittle out the details and/or how much climo is influencing some of them (I'm not sure how much climo data they put weight on). Regardless, if this keeps up, I think this may be one of the worse model verification winters in a long time because damn near none of them have verified, especially in our area, for snowfall, or QPF for that matter, outside 24 hours. They're not even verifying that well in the mountains out to the W/NW where it should be close to cut and dry. The mountains in BC should have about 800 inches of snow by now lol. Just my armchair 2 cents but something is really strange this winter model wise. Maybe it will snap back late and cover some of the models butts, however, as has been posted, the long range models don't look that good. But then again 2 months ago the long range looked better than it is right now. If this pans out this may be a winter to study the complete failure IMO of the "new and improved" models across the board. I'll wait for someone smarter than me (which are many) and read the book.

I was gonna say, it was fairly consistent having me in the game the last few runs. If the Canuk jumps ship for me I'm toast lol.

Seriously?

Hoping to get down there again this fall. Been down there 3 times in the last 25 years. My paternal grandfather was born and raised in the Aguas Buenas area before going to IU to become a dentist and serving in WWII as a medical officer in the European theater. He retired back to PR the mid 70's offering free dental to the people where he grew up. I was fortunate enough to go there 25 years ago prior to his passing and meet an extended family and what an absolutely beautiful part of the Island Aguas Buenas is. True to it's name it's one of the best places I've ever traveled to. My brother and I are trying to plan a trip again this coming fall to see some of our half brothers and sisters and their family's again as we are the eldest grandchildren and life is flying by. I remember my grandfather telling me one of the biggest things he missed about the US besides his US family was snow. He said he was 18 when he experienced his first snow in Bloomington and his classmates thought he was crazy because he sat outside all night as it fell having never seen it before lol. I wish more Americans would travel there, it truly is a beautiful island and the people, the food and culture there are amazing. Sorry for off topic.

Just hit 60 here also. Grill's gonna be a challenge lol

We might get something since we're within range of the NAM and it's showing a complete whiff. May need to rename this thread Feb 4th-28th storm threat for accuracy.

The Hoosier model, best performing one this winter

Had about 1.5 hours of sun before noon today for the first time since like Xmas. Thank goodness. Went outside in my shorts to replenish my vitamin D deficiency.

As long as Chattanooga doesn't get more snow than us I'm game. I'm cautiously optimistic but that sure looks like the SE could get a paralyzing 6 incher.

I'm going to code my own model running an algorithm that inputs data from keywords from our sub forum. I bet it's clown maps would be as accurate run to run as these sooper compooters

Well said, some of us are staying in touch with our environment. But for the masses I guess Kylie Jenner is more important than whether ones garage kept Land Rover hits a tree when they are grabbing the visor to see which button to push to engage 4WD. Sorry my attitude lately surfaced lol.

Whatever that crap that was falling it along with dropping 3 degrees to below freezing very quickly it really made the roads a mess for a few hours around here. Black ice with this crap on top, and it happened fast. That stuff falling was like you described except it was all falling together this evening. Honestly one of the weirdest precips I've ever seen. Visibility got down to less than a mile for about an hour (throw in freezing fog around here).

IDOT better get the sand/salt trucks out up around here. It just got slick as shit out up and down St. RD. 28, 37, and 13. I counted 12 cars in ditches.

Every morning looks like a painting by the dark side of Bob Ross when he forgot to take his meds for a couple days. Ain't no happy little trees or bushes. Just dreary depression day after day after day.

PT Barnum model

IWX hoisted a small area WWA for black ice. I can attest it's slick as heck out there

No science here obviously lol. But I really feel like this is going to be a bookend winter with a bunch of piss in the middle. My area is below normal precip wise, liquid/frozen -30%, and above normal temp wise +10%. Vegas odds are the rubber band snaps towards the middle to latter half of Feb to early March. The overall storm track tendency hasn't really changed since Aug/Sept and is very favorable for a big dog around here if one of these can just tap some cold air. Halloween cold air tap was a surprise. The split flow ninoesque pattern that followed was a surprise. But the potential deep winter cold air tap that is lurking to the north, and you can see it there, combined with this consistent storm track could very well lay down a late winter big dog. Models are trending colder in fantasy land for once this season, not just cold but some real arctic air intrusion but without deep suppressive ridging. I just feel like something has to give this winter to make the stars align, we are way overdue. All my years living next to the ocean and dealing with the tropics in the SE taught me one thing, it only takes one big one to even the score during years of drought. Or maybe it's just me having visions of Hank Stram when I was 8 years old thinking anything is possible lol.

When GRR is optimistic times are tough

Good call. I wasn't touching this one with 10ft pole, not like I'm good at calls anyway. honestly wasn't expecting to see any fluff 5 days ago. There's been a consistent 1-2 degree temp differential between the thermometer on the roof line and the one on the ground the last 48 hours with the ground actually the warmer, complete flip flop from the last system. Thought I had it to close to the dryer vent at first lol. It's still -SN here too, about the same accumulation wise. We couldn't get a band to setup like this one for this long when it's 25 degrees out to save our butts. You know it's bad when the backside comes through and it's 50 in Nebraska lol.

We might see the moon one night lol.. Tonight Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Cloudy, with a high near 35. West southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Sunday Night Cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Monday Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 36. Tuesday Night Cloudy, with a low around 28. Wednesday A slight chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Friday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

27 pages for this and a "Hot" tag for Alek trolling. We're all sick in the head lol.

Agree! Let's put a fork in this one and move on. The Proctor Proone model vs The Lester Flem model. With all due respect to our friends across the border you know which horse I'm riding

Been snowing at a good clip for 4-5 hours or so. Would probably have 2-3 inches if it wasn't falling into a frying pan lol. Maybe a half on the ground.

Reach around beginning at 31 degrees. We'll see if it can stay all snow. Whether it sticks who knows. Hey, it's sumpin lol.

Just took the dogs for a late/early walk. I lost them within 50 feet. It's definitely froggy out there. At least thats something outta this mess.