Jackstraw

Me lol!

Seldom does KIND go bullish. Upped their call for here early this morning to 3-5 to be more inline with IWX 4-7 (their graphic is still messed up). Also mentioned potential overperformer in their AFD while IWX had a few caveats for under performer in theirs. I've said it before but I swear these two offices have running bets on their borders lol. Dealing with some dry air here no precip yet but we're running 3-4 degrees below forecast. Snow reported to my north. I'm sticking with my dog call

Parents lived on Sullivans Island since 84, I lived in Mt. Pleasant for 12 years, left in 2012. Like anywhere else it's changed a lot but it's still a great area to live. Got 5 inches of snow down there in like '08, biggest snow in a century or something. Brought the entire area to a standstill literally for 2 days lol. I go down there at least once a year,. Get used to this winter we've been having because this is low country winter minus the snow lol.

00Z crazy Ukie, lock it in..

The models be sayin"...

I wouldn't bet on it. I wouldn't bet on my call of 6-7. I do think there's a 50/50 chance that northern Marion county could over perform the forecast. I'm just not that sold on the warm nose with this system.

I think you're going to be as good if not better than me. The modeled warm nose is right on our doorstep but its been consistently on our doorstep the last 24 hours instead of pushing all the way to the MI border as they've modeled the past couple systems. Hey it's not a big dog but I'll take a jacked up dog this season lol. I also think we could be in for an inch of icing on the cake if we can get a french tickler off the lake late Thursday. Hell if the weather channel can do it I'll go out on a limb a name this storm storm Jackstraw lol.

One can dream lol

I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry. I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior. Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol. 2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms. Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's. I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north. I'm going all in with the short stack this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol! Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not

Flipped to rain, sometimes heavy rain about an hour ago with temp back up to 34. When it was snowing it was the biggest flakes of the season, half dollars. +SN on the onset then flipped to sleet/rain, melted then went back to +SN again for about an hour. Got about an inch twice lol. Just a freakin mess out there now.

Quite the WAA battle going on here. Got a quick inch flipped to light freezing drizzle/sleet now back to parachutes.

I'm on the north side of the mediocre winter climo for this sub so it's really got to be bad for me to complain. I need to pick up 20 inches to reach average this year. Wouldn't be so bad if I had a year in the last 8 that was 20 inches over but only had 2 that were at or slightly above average since I moved back. The only good thing about this trend is slowly lowering the average thereby lowering expectations. Geez, next year if I get 6 in 24 hours with a 25mph wind I'll be comparing it to 77

Euro and Canuk showing some legit arctic air setting in for a couple days late next week/weekend. If it happens and we can get a system come through to tap into it Biloxi will probably get a foot

ZZZZZ

I could piss out my back door into a 20mph 25 degree wind and it would be a top 10 event this winter lol

Yep we're running about 60% below normal with nothing looking good on the horizon. Ended up with a half inch of frozen crap and another half inch of frosting on top for this "storm" lol. Running just about 10 inches on the season and we average about 29. Need a late season big dog to snap the rubber band.

Almost .5 of midwest beach sand here. Nary a flake.

That would've been better than the eternal pingerfest I got going on lol

Mesoscale Discussion 0082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020 Areas affected...Northern Indiana into southern Michigan and far northwest Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 052307Z - 060130Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected through the evening. DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent has led to a broad area of light to moderate snow across much of the southern Great Lakes. While snowfall rates should remain in the half inch per hour range across most of the region, deep frontogenesis in the 850 to 500 mb layer will lead to some banding and localized heavier snowfall rates approaching 1 inch per hour. Composite reflectivity indicates the heaviest band may be starting to develop from Rensselaer, IN northeastward through Goshen and toward Jackson, Michigan. The heavier snow rates will be limited due to the short duration of snow, but these rates could persist for 1 to 2 hours across the aforementioned region.

Just went from garden variety pingers to full on salt shaker skin stingers, my goodness

Garden variety pinger crap here

Think IWX should be good. I'm gonna be walking the 850 like a Walenda. Like literally a few miles north or south of me could mean the difference between 1-2 of crap or 3-6. I'm used to that just not in February. I'll do a D1 call, as thats all you can do in my climo this year, 2" of every frozen type precip except ZR and pray I bust low lol. Edit: Forgot I made an earlier call of 5. What was I drinking?

After throwing by beer against the wall after the STOU, I'm calling 5 for here. If it sticks around for 72 hours I'll leave the poker table

Like IWX said we're dying down here in Mudpocolypse. Sorry for youz guys but if the Euro and Canuk can verify you can have the rest of this crap winter lol. This is the heart of clipper season and not one yet this year with this non-stop split flow crap. That's usually where I stat pad, a couple weeks of 2 inch clippers. Has that ever happened, no clippers in the Midwest? I mean we're even looking at less than 12 total hours below zero here.

We overperformed here with a non official 61 by 5 degrees (with a feels like temp of 80, I was sweating lol). We're supposed to "plummet" to 34 tonight, currently 43 then "soar" to 58 tomorrow. If we can stay sunny tomorrow I'm calling 63. Regardless took the day off to get some stuff done outside I missed because of "Winterfall".