Jackstraw

Yes going to be very concerning for GA/SC/NC due to the timing. There also wasn't a lot of focus on them the past couple days with everything being focused on LA/MS/AL. Some pretty startling soundings on the HRRR along the SE coast especially. They just don't see tornado potential like this right along the coast. 22Z HRRR soundings are similar from Savannah up through Charleston.....

Thats an amazing yet sad story, probably one of many. The biggest take away is just how contagious this virus is. It's amazing science how quickly the genome of this virus was sequenced. It's amazing science that we learned how closely it's related to past viruses. What's not understood yet about this virus is why is it so contagious. What part of it's genome makes it so sneaky that it only makes some people sick and others not. Those not to the point they aren't even sick yet they are contagious. To me this is the scary part of this thing. I'm quite surprised about an antibody test when at the same time it's not known if someone can be reinfected. Has that been proven yet? Can we become immune? What good is an antibody test if in fact you can be reinfected? Odds are once infected and recovered there's immunity built up. If this is an antibody test then it must be known within the medical circles that people become immune. Why hasn't that been expressed? I'm a bit puzzled. Edit:@Hoosiers post about the woman who never left for 3 weeks

The rural south has a large black population. Are the numbers there similar to the urban areas in the big cities? There are some counties in southern IN that took off like a rocket, but they were also some of the poorest counties in the state, Franklin, Decatur for example. They also don't have a very large black or even hispanic population. I understand deep crowded urban cities. My fear is making this virus racial instead of socio economic. We've already seen backlash towards Asian Americans over this, hell even in my small town the one chinese restaurant closed because of threats when all they've ever done is carry out, which is permitted. We need to be very careful throwing the race card around and focus on, what I believe, the real issue, it's money and healthcare access. Edit: Folks, millionaires are getting tested whenever they want. There are Dr.'s out there that will test you for 600-1000 bucks. If there's not something wrong with that, well make your own decision. The fact that the capitalistic mindset is still ruling the day in a time when the society that gives it it's privilege is being deprived is just criminal IMHO.

Instead of race I wish they would post income levels.

Madison county coroner posted 2 large refrigerated walk in coolers they acquired to handle storage of the deceased last week. May sound drastic but it is a mostly rural county except for Anderson. They normally can only handle 6-10 at a time.

First call of 2.5 feet. You are an American God lol.

Yes as with anything when it comes to healthcare in this country, 2 years down the road from now when the true numbers come out the demographic most prone to this virus are going to be poor with little or no access to quality healthcare. Trying to stay non political but we really are the only "wealthy" country left in the world where access to healthcare depends on your wallet. The pundits can say what they want, this is exposing the nightmare and inequality of healthcare in this country, from the top down. Not to mention the gutting of federal funds to the states for healthcare infrastructure over the last 40 years. To be the leader of democracy in the world, think our pants just got pulled down.

Yeah it's looking pretty gnarly right now on the models. Make sure you leave yourself an out to the E if you're going to AL. It's easy to get cornered as you move NE with storms. The E/NE part of AL can be like getting trapped in a canyon if your not careful and the roads start to suck. Been there. Decent soundings back into SC as the evening progresses too so you could be chasing, or be chased lol, all the way home. Good luck

Euro not quite that deep but does a funky stall for 6-8 hours just long enough to kick the SE US's butt with some wicked severe weather then shoots into MI. Will be an interesting dynamic system. Hope the models are over doing the severe threat down south. Don't need anything close to '11 down there right now.

Been watching Justin's channel for many years. Pretty amazing how they're trying to help get PPE's to health care workers in N AL...

Same here, I had to back away from the news cycle for a few days. As much as we deal with models on this board I tried to take the IHME with a grain of salt but I didn't think it's output would have been as bad as the AVN. Now it is bouncing lower, much lower, but I sure hope it's not doing the 'ol weather model windshield wiper on snowstorm tracks. Wagon's down I'm all for it.

Hope it stays wrong

Still don't understand why AL isn't being focused on. According to the "official IHME" model they are going to get hammered. I know I keep harping on it but next to NY that state is is deep crap. The model is inputting their massive lack of hospitals to deal with it but it's getting worse. They will be running a per capita death rate 3 times NY. I have a good friend from Chicago that relocated to Mobile for work 6 years ago. He's taking his family back to Chicago this weekend because of this. He works in epidemiology from a project management aspect and he's told me the medical officials down there are bracing for armageddon. They are scared to death down there. I fear you're going to hear AL as one of the largest tragedies that could've been prevented out of all of this. It's very sad whats going on there and hopefully the medical professionals and the models are wrong.

What amazes me about Italy is northern Italy supposedly has one of the highest rated if not the best medical systems in Europe. They have a median age of I think 49. Southern Italy has not been hit nearly as hard, is much poorer a median age of like 55 and the medical infrastructure is nothing compared to northern Italy. It's kind of the wild west of Italy. Yet they've been running 50 to 60 % behind northern Italy in death rates so far. The demographics of where this hit first and hard are going to be very interesting once it settles down in about a year.

I agree and it will/should probably go through May like you said. I think it's going to be status quo until at least the the end of this month. I do have a fear that as some states start to flatten the curve while others are entering the worst of their curves, what's going to happen? I know we can't keep the economy semi shut down like it is forever, and trust me it's semi shutdown not completely. How are we going to deal with reopening the economy coming out of this? States that can relax their restrictions first will have an economic advantage over those that can't. For that matter there's going to be a similar reaction worldwide. Relaxing the social distancing rules in certain places could very well put us back into the same situation we're in. There is a myriad of issues coming up in the next 90 days. Sorry but this everyone for themselves approach this country has taken is going to do way more harm in the long run than any economic recession or depression in our history when we just say screw it we gotta keep the economy going let who dies die.

That's so sad. What sucks is compared to other disasters this one makes it difficult for neighbors to be neighbors because nobody wants to possibly expose themselves. Week 3 I'm telling ya. When you ask people to stay locked down it's week 3 when the edge really starts setting in. With this it's even worse because the news is just going to get worse as soon as folks start getting edgie. I can't say enough about just jumping in the car and taking off for a couple hours. Don't have to get out just drive. If you find a place I'm telling ya, get out set on the hood and chill. Especially at night, go somewhere dark and stare at the sky when it's clear. It's going to be crucial for a lot of people to just get away, there's plenty of room out there just gotta take a ride ad find it.

I posted before about some of things I'm doing. I admit, I am in a very rural area compared to most on this board. But if you're getting the heebeegeebees of staying at home you can get in your car and take a ride, just ride around. You don't have to get out. If you can get away from a city center and get on a country road somewhere do it. Pull over get out and set on your hood. You're not going to get sick, or more importantly make someone else sick out in the middle of nowhere. This forum is in the middle of farm country. Trust me we've been doing it. Had some friends from Indy come up today, we met them them half way in our cars, found a country road and had a picnic, some beers, a nice little social meeting with social distance on a gravel road with friends. I understand something like that might be more difficult in big cities like Chicago. I've worked in Chicago and you can take a drive and get to someplace like that in an hour. Youre in your car, youre not exposing or being exposed. I'm serious cause over the next couple weeks, especially if you live in cities, you can get out of your house go find someplace where nobody's at get out of your car and enjoy some freedom.

Link to the video I posted yesterday that does a pretty good job of explaining why this isn't like the flu. He originally posted his first one on the 19th of March. Someone cut out a piece of it and it started spreading around social media like wildfire giving the look that he was totally inaccurate which was typical social media BS and unfortunate. I think he does a good job of graphically comparing this virus with past data from the big ones in the 20th century. I've also roughly fact checked a lot of the numbers he uses and they seem to be pretty accurate. And a disclaimer I am nowhere near a professional. Just like many on here I'm stuck at home and spend a lot of time trying to filter through the BS and find the science. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz1bGzYdRdk Link to his comparisons back on the 19th... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4no04822NQ&t=6s

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Next week is going to tell the tale to see if all these graphs and curves and dizzying estimates start to pan out accurately, better or worse. Hoping for the first two. The IHME model, which seems like the one that officials are mainly using, is supposedly getting updated with more data points overnight so will be interesting to see where it goes. Alabama and Florida are really looking scary with roughly 6k, 7k deaths respectively per that current model. Fl. is projected to have the resources but Alabama, man, if the models right it's going to get nut's down there. Out of 25k hospital beds Alabama may need, they only have 5k. 4k ICU beds they may need , they have 500. And they have one of the steepest curves I've seen meaning if it pans out it's going to hit hard and fast. It's a very small state population wise having half the population of Michigan. TN is going to run out of resources and projected to have twice the deaths as IN with roughly the same population. Just to point out most of these states were very late in the game with any type of social distancing measure. Alabama is a secondary spring break location to FL and they embraced the spring breakers this year, with people complaining about them all the way up to last week. Will be interesting to see how these numbers get updated later Saturday. I think it's safe to say social distancing measures tend to work if even partially followed. If your states red you might be dead.

I can vouch for that around here. People everywhere today. Stores that were open were packed. I turned around outta town. My county went from 2 to 7 deaths in a week.

Another graphical representation of the effects of social distancing. Kinda long but I found it interesting. Really good links in the description ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs&t=76s And your own Pandemic model where you can destroy the human race if you want http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Cary Huang updated his Covid19>Other Pandemics graph from the one he did on the 19th of March. This one comparing it to the Swine Flu Pandemic, which had the highest daily death rate in the 20th century. Informative and a little scary.

Alabama is screwed. If the IHME model is even close to being correct, they're going to to be short 25k hospital beds and 4k ICU beds at the peak. Those are really scary numbers.

I have a good friend who works in the lumber yard of the local Topp's hardware store. He's 60 and has some compromising conditions, hypertension, diabetes a little overweight. He's getting really concerned. He told me they have been busier than he's seen the place in the 5 years he's worked there. Understandably everyone who is "staying at home" is taking advantage of the time to work on their property etc. Mowing and garden season is starting. What better time to do some projects than now. He' put a sign up asking people to stay in their car or truck so he can load it but management told him to take it down. He said people get out walk up to him like nothing pointing to what particular boards or whatever they want. He has brought his concerns of having to be in such close proximity to people to management who have pretty much ignored him. He's scared to death, can't lose his job but also doesn't want to get sick and maybe die because he's high risk either. I'd imagine there's stories like this by the millions across the country. We hear a lot about people helping people but not hearing a lot about situations like this (except front line medical/police/fire workers) where someone could be risking their lives because someone wants a 2x4 and won't stay away from you and the bosses basically tell you shut up do your job or your fired. I dunno, sounds like a business taking advantage of profits over worker safety to me. Wish OSHA still existed