Jackstraw

Ha! So did I, gone for an hour with the dogs went back on the main thread, 200+ new posts??? Can't see the forest for the trees shit there lol.

Well, we're a far cry from the double whammy simultaneous scenario forecasted early Friday morning. Granted, a fatally injured Marco is dragging himself to his original forecasted LF point like a tearjerker ending in a Hollywood survival movie. Another reason to be patient with these things 5 days out and we're still not done. Think there's still time for 1 or 2 more surprises from Laura. As I thought these storms have not disappointed from a tracking standpoint. Go Marco go, you can do it!

Think there's still an elongated LLC moving up towards LA, can kinda see it on shortwave IR, but it sure looks like the mid level vort got scooped and is taking off NNE. Could let that ridge to the east build in faster. There seems to be some pretty deep easterly flow south of Marco back down around the Yucatan. Weak strugglers gotta love 'em, or hate 'em if you're at the NHC. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_band.php?stormid=AL142020&band=07&length=12

Yeah, looks like maybe the speedmax on the east side of that trough is a little farther east and taking a little longer to lift NE cutting Marco at his 500mb knees. We could be looking at a chugga chugga choo choo 50KT swirl moving NW by morning. Or not, stranger things have happened lol.

SAL/dry air has shut down anything currently coming across/off Africa but there's 3 fairly stout waves following this last episode of very dry air. It's a wait and see if any can make a run into the Atlantic towards the end of the week. Also, link to a sat view of a pretty strong dust storm over the west central Sahara I thought was cool http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/msg_rgbdust/movies/msg_rgbdust.html

I don;t know if it's the prolonged lack/reduction of aircraft data across the CONUS or for that matter across the Atlantic, but the models have been off the past 4 or 5 months more than usual, especially forecasting upper level features, which usually the globals have a general agreement inside 120 hours. I know up where I'm at they've been s#%t outside 48 hours. I think someone whose across the pond posted in one of the threads they've been crap over there also. I posted Thursday that the next 7 days were going to be a challenge simply because what the models were spitting out I've never seen. Also none of them were consistent with upper CONUS features earlier in the week, not even focusing on the potential storms themselves at the time. Just habit from when I lived in the Clearwater area for 11 years and whenever I saw models pushing something into the GOM the first thing I looked at was what the forecast was over the CONUS. I do like tracking weaker storms because I think there's a lot to be learned there. I've seen storms do crazy things in 30 years so no matter how good the models have gotten anything they spit out comes with some suspicion, but this year has been kinda nuts. Maybe its like Vortex95 said, too much of a good thing lol. I know one thing, when the CMC is running a tight race over time on verification scores with the big boy's somethings up. Edit: Sorry thought I was in the 2020 Hurricane season thread

Gotcha, thanks for that. With all of the focus on the shear it's easy to lose focus on some of the other factors.

I'd like to see them do a drop from 10k on the NW side of the storm before they leave, get a bit of a snapshot of mid to upper level shear velocities/direction.

Dew's rising significantly at flt level in that drop. SHIPS thinks a decent chance at another 25KT over the next 24-36 hours..... SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 6.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Like forecasting in the 60's when real men drew the charts lol. I'm already half way through my case of popcorn. Lights are flashing, take your seats for Act II

Never underestimate the energy available in 89F degree water

It is a model in the future and yes it's a bit strange. The Euro shows something similar but not as vigorous. My take would be it's a signal of rising air riding the western side of maybe a mid level ridge. Pretty stale winds off to the east so could induce some vorticity along that line. 200mb winds are from the SW almost on top of that and maybe stretching the latent vorticity NE? Might be a feature in the models that prevents some big dog strengthening. I'm sitting in a recliner with my dog watching Shipping Wars, what the hell do I know lol.

I think it's in the final stages of mixing out dry air that's been prevalent to it's N and NW the last couple of days.. I would venture to guess that we see some fairly significant sustained convection during DMAX overnight. If it misses the peninsula altogether there's not a lot in it's way until it hits potential forecasted shear in a few days. Not saying RI or anything but I do think it will be Marco by 5am at the latest. It sure is in a historical area to blow up

Yes it is going to be interesting to say the least. Been waiting all week to see where the initial placement of the pieces will be. I've been watching everything but the 2 potential storms looking for some consistency in model trends for placement of the bumpers in the giant pinball game and I don't see 1 or 2 dominant features that could make the forecast of these 2 potential storms any easier. There are several features from the west coast all the way into the mid Atlantic and as far north as Canada that are currently evolving. Subtle changes in any of these from current modeling will be problematic in any track/intensity forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see extra ROAB launches from TX to the Carolinas at some point. I would say the level of uncertainty as it stands now is at a higher than usual level. The next 120 hours are definitely going to keep the NHC on their toes. Popcorn is out, let the show begin

Yup. Been waiting to see what happens as it distances itself from S. America (or vise versa as the coastline begins to recede lol)' If it can get it's act together and minimal if no interaction with the peninsula it's got plenty of fuel ahead of it and there will be no doubt of a landfall. The SE Gulf/NW Caribbean has a bit of a history of storms ramping up quickly. This one I'm a little more concerned with some collapse of steering IF it develops and gets into the SE GOM.

The proverbial figure skater pulling her arms in lol

If anything develops I think a lot is going to depend on the evolution of that monster SW conus ridge. GEFS and EPS along with the OP's show it breaking down to varying degrees around day 7 in general. There are trends toward zonal flow across the northern conus after that for a few days farther out into fantasy land across the board. A setup like that, IF it were to happen can sometimes lead to headaches forecasting a track for anything in the SE Bahamas, S GOM or the W Caribbean. Weaker steering and/or something getting trapped under a conus ridge-WAR battle. Stalls, left turns and loops oh my.

Nice depiction of inner core formation on MIMIC. This should be a fun one to watch over the next day.

This. My biggest concern is exactly that. There's been consistent modeling of relaxed shear in the Caribbean for some time now, especially the eastern Caribbean. While normally the eastern Caribbean shear tends to relax during the peak it doesn't usually do it for very long, there always seems to be a retrograding TUTT that throws a fly in the ointment for any long track storm that gets in there and tries to traverse south of Cuba. Most years that shear tends to keep anything traversing the eastern Caribbean at least in check if not ripping it apart. Of course some have made it through if the timing's right but the eastern Caribbean is usually a tough place for any storm. The consistent modeling of a relaxing of that shear for an extended period of time increases the chances for a southern long tracker to sustain intensity right into the GOM. May not happen at all but I think there's increasing chances of that possibility.

It's not real

An average season of 10-12 has 2-3 named storms by now with 75% occurring over the next 6-8 weeks. This anomalous beginning is accounting for almost half of the very active season being forecasted. Since we already have 9, even and average Aug - Oct would put us upwards of 20. So it doesn't necessarily mean the tropics have to "blow up" soon in order to meet the current forecast. A moderate above average Aug - Oct, say 10-12, as opposed to the Aug - Oct 8-10 average could hit the threshold of some of the forecasts. I think that's an important perspective. We've almost got a 3rd of a high end 25 storm forecast in the bank by the first week of August. Even an average or slightly below average Aug- Oct portion will still put the entire season as well above average. So the question is, has the anomalous above average season being forecasted already occured? Edit: Just trying to point out that moving forward could be an average season in the timeframe left. Some people may be disappointed if storm after storm doesn't start cranking soon and think the forecasts are off. I'm putting odds on a normal, maybe slightly above normal Aug - Oct storm count.

Most rain missed to my south today. Been trying to get active, taking short walks. Made it the 1/4 mile down the driveway out to the county road this evening (I'm telling you this shit sucks!) and saw some of the strangest clouds I've seen in IN. They looked like overlapping pillows lined up like a shelf cloud, really low, maybe 750-1k foot bases, from SW to NE with what looked like a wall cloud on the SW end well below the already low base, almost ground scraping, beaver tail and all but no rotation. Up top looked like a really low topped buildup, maybe 2-3k at the highest, and it wasn't building. Could see the sunlight underneath the base, no precip, no lightning. Dog walked me back to the house lol. We sat on the porch for a few, wind was calm, then all of a sudden as whatever those clouds were moved over, got a wind gust of 30mph out of nowhere. Then, no sprinkles, an absolute deluge, like turning on your shower. One of the hardest rains I've seen up here. I mean deafening loud, huge drops, ice cold rain. Dogs went into storm mode with no thunder. That's how loud and fast it unleashed. My gauge recorded 4.5 inches in an hour! That's the most ever. Temp went from 76 to 54 in about 10 min (did go back up) It did this for almost an hour, no easing up then increasing, steady crazy rain for almost an hour. Then it stopped as fast as it started. Could see stars 15 min after it stopped. Nothing but water running across the driveway like a river lol. That's more wind and rain than my ex-wife got in CHS today lol. Might just be me but that was some weird shit lol.

And OMG people may be socking it away because they don't know what's around the corner. Paying off debt to reduce or eliminate bills in case it gets worse. God forbid Americans cut their credit cards, increase their savings and stop borrowing money for things like snowmobiles. When this first hit banks were getting jumpy because people were suddenly paying down credit card debt, were trying to increase their savings. When I was a kid that was taught to me as being financially responsible. This economy is a slave to debt. I choose not to participate in that type of economy thank you very much.

Well it got me and it's definitely not done with me. I'll be brief but just wanted to share a frontline experience. I began not feeling well the around the first-second week of May. Mainly persistent headaches and joint pain. I believe I posted before I've had chronic Lyme disease for over 12 years and have had a few flare ups in that time. I figured that's what it was. I didn't have a fever, no trouble breathing, none of the common symptoms of Covid. After 2 more days it got worse, especially the headaches. I called my physician, who is an LLMD, and he ordered both a Lyme test and a Covid test. He didnt think it was Covid either because I wasn't showing typical Covid symptoms. Scheduled the tests the next day, had them, got a quick Covid diagnostic while at the lab, no fever, oxygen levels fine, lungs clear, then went back home. 48 hours later I was in an ambulance because the ol'lady couldn't wake me up. All I remember is laying down on the couch with an ice pack on my head and 2 dogs on top of me and then waking up in ICU feeling like a marionette with all the tubes and wires hooked to me. I was told I was out for about 36 hours. I got the quick test at the hospital and was positive. I guess my other test came back positive 3 days later, Lyme test negative.. Once again to keep it brief, I thought if I got this thing it would hit me in the chest because I've been an on and off smoker for 40 some years. The virus didn't hit me there. It hit me in my blood and in my brain. The encephalitis in my brain got bad enough I was put into an induced coma and intubated for 17 days to try and reduce the severe swelling. I had to have 3 blood transfusions during that time because the virus was really screwing with my red blood cells causing them to basically work opposite of the way they are supposed to work. I consciously never knew it but I guess I was on the edge. Subconsciously, and I'm serious, I lived an entire lifetime in another dimension with vivid memories of my life, decades of my life,completely different from my life, that, well, weren't real? The hardest part was the loneliness after I woke up. Those stories about you're in there all by yourself, they're not kidding. It was almost 2 weeks after I woke up before I got moved out of ICU and the Covid ward before I could see anyone besides nurses and Dr's dressed up in biohazard space suits. Anyway, I was in the hospital for almost 2 months, I got out on the 10th. I'm just now starting to get semi right, so I'm told lol. There's no medical evidence of brain damage, I still have what little scruples I had before this. I told her nothing can keep me away from hurricane season, guess I arrived just in time I may be an extreme case but at least I'm alive. 145k and counting aren't. Better perspective, 140k since April 1st. Please don't take this lightly. Please think about your loved ones, your friends, your neighbor, your fellow citizens. Please think about Gertrude who already has one foot in the grave, let her put the other foot in, it's her right. Nobody deserves to get sick, go through what I have or to die like my friend did back when this started over stupid selfish pride. Where a damn mask, it's the least you can do. (maybe I'm not right that took me 3 hours lol)

That's the price you pay when an economy of production moves to an economy of service. Once you base your economy on consumption instead of production there's nothing to support it when demand for services hits the basement. A "Service" based economy is just that, it serves. We haven't had a "production" or "goods" based economy in 40 or 50 years. At least if you have a production based economy, when shit hits the fan, you can at least "make things" for yourself. If your economy is based on service, it's artificial. It's Bitcoin. Walmart is the largest employer in this country (which is absolutely embarrassing). What do they produce? Not digging at you, I'm in the same boat. I get it your a supply chain analyst. Most people never heard of the "supply chain" in detail until it was brought up during this and may not understand completely what it is. It's not just ships, ports trucks and/or warehouses. It's way deeper than the obvious on the surface. But the supply chain doesn't "make" anything. The supply chain creates jobs, but what flows through the supply chain has changed drastically over the last 40 years. Just like what I do for a living it doesn't "produce" a product that can be built or sold. I support a product or products that have already been built and sold. This country is at a true crossroads right now, for that matter the world is. The divisions are already deep, and like the stock market, are artificially being exasperated by selfish entities trying to exploit them at our expense for their own profit. We are facing something now that typical American denial isn't going to work. We're going to have to deal with it for a long time. The economic game that's been played by us world wide, the fact that we have dollar stores, the fact that we in this country get the best deals without making shit at the expense of impoverished slaves exploited by the the "walmarts" of the world. None of us can, nor should we, rely on the current leadership or the future leadership, to get us as a country through this. We need to stand up, and do the hard thing, but on our terms, not the fat cats. The economy is important, but this current economy isn't worth sacrificing lives for IMHO This is a crucial time right now in our society. We've been a junkie ignoring reality long enough. I hope our kids and grandkids won't have to forgive us and may thank us instead.