Jackstraw

Whatever that crap that was falling it along with dropping 3 degrees to below freezing very quickly it really made the roads a mess for a few hours around here. Black ice with this crap on top, and it happened fast. That stuff falling was like you described except it was all falling together this evening. Honestly one of the weirdest precips I've ever seen. Visibility got down to less than a mile for about an hour (throw in freezing fog around here).

IDOT better get the sand/salt trucks out up around here. It just got slick as shit out up and down St. RD. 28, 37, and 13. I counted 12 cars in ditches.

Every morning looks like a painting by the dark side of Bob Ross when he forgot to take his meds for a couple days. Ain't no happy little trees or bushes. Just dreary depression day after day after day.

PT Barnum model

No science here obviously lol. But I really feel like this is going to be a bookend winter with a bunch of piss in the middle. My area is below normal precip wise, liquid/frozen -30%, and above normal temp wise +10%. Vegas odds are the rubber band snaps towards the middle to latter half of Feb to early March. The overall storm track tendency hasn't really changed since Aug/Sept and is very favorable for a big dog around here if one of these can just tap some cold air. Halloween cold air tap was a surprise. The split flow ninoesque pattern that followed was a surprise. But the potential deep winter cold air tap that is lurking to the north, and you can see it there, combined with this consistent storm track could very well lay down a late winter big dog. Models are trending colder in fantasy land for once this season, not just cold but some real arctic air intrusion but without deep suppressive ridging. I just feel like something has to give this winter to make the stars align, we are way overdue. All my years living next to the ocean and dealing with the tropics in the SE taught me one thing, it only takes one big one to even the score during years of drought. Or maybe it's just me having visions of Hank Stram when I was 8 years old thinking anything is possible lol.

When GRR is optimistic times are tough

We might see the moon one night lol.. Tonight Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Cloudy, with a high near 35. West southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Sunday Night Cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Monday Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 36. Tuesday Night Cloudy, with a low around 28. Wednesday A slight chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Friday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

IWX earlier today says it all... For Sunday through Thursday little if any precipitation is expected with seasonably mild temperatures for this time of year. Highs should be from around 35 to 40 each day with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s each night. Most noticeable will be the absence of arctic air with the continued pattern of above normal temperatures (Fort Wayne has only had 3 days the temperature has been below normal during the past nearly 5 weeks).

Well at least we don't have to worry about this lmao...

Got tickled by the southern edge of that plume off lake Michigan and got .75 of snow, more than Fridays storm lol.

With nothing but a possible dab the next 10 days around here on the models (except for the Canuk ), this January has the potential to be pretty much snowless here except for a couple dustings. If that pans out then I'll be looking for a Feb. early March big dog to bookend us the other 2/3rds to our average. Still learning the teleconection stuff but there were several really strong TC's in the WPAC late this year and am just curious if they just pumped extra heat into the northern latitudes and into the Pacific jet and how that influences the PV behavior. At least it doesn't look like the deep freeze is setting in over the next couple weeks. I might start to lose it if we start getting 1050-60 Canadian ridges suppressing the storm track south or east. Current pattern sucks but has a better chance for something as opposed to a deep cold snowless depre ..er..suppression.

We have 4 big dogs and a mop by the back door. I think my feelings on mud have been expressed over the years. Seems to be a running theme the past few winters. Mushy mud during the day then frozen boot piercing stalagmites at night.

Guess theres enough of us weather nerds to support a movie being made. Wasn't to bad actually... https://smile.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B0812BZF9D/ref=atv_hm_hom_1_c_ZWyNDQ_0YgTDE_1_1

It's still snowing here

Could pinger town finally have it's it's vengeance?

Albeit that's usually me after midnight, but that damn near made me spit out my coffee lol.

Thar's one thing about living here in the hinterland of winter anxiety, getting hopes up is mea culpa. But on the flip side if it does happen it's like a one night stand with the Lawrence Welk girls in a tub of olive oil

Last 5 runs of the Euro have been pretty consistent on 4-6 inches from about 30 miles east of me all the way up through Toledo inside 72 hours, then another 3-4 with the second system. I'd lock it in except it's all alone with that forecast. Timing is going to be the secret (as it usually is around here until January). Get something coming through during the overnight our chances for snow increase 2 fold.

Euro, GFS and Canuk all have something coming through the Ohio valley around the 23rd-24th with the Euro down by the river, the Canuk just north of Chitown and the GFS running along I-70.

Thanks for the jinx. I'll buy some coconut oil and keep a couple pairs of shorts out for a Xmas cookout now lol.

My big sugar maples just dropped 5 inches of leaves the last 2 days if I slant stick it. If the NAM verifies in the short term and then a refresh midweek it'll look like a foot lol. Btw, is depth to measured off the dirt or whatever is above the dirt. If it's above I'll stop mowing the end of August so I can feel good about a 2 inch misery snow

Yeah I was surprised to see this much discussion on a GFS run this far out. Think the Halloween event triggered some irrational thinking like if you had a first date with the head cheerleader in high school and she teased you into thinking the second date was going to be THE date lol. Regardless I bought a bottle of my winter single barrel a little early this year just in case.

You mean like 5 years ago the GFS would spit out a 10 day clown map of 2 feet from St. Louis to Detroit or the last couple years a 3 day clown map of 36 inches from Dallas to Toledo. I swear the last couple years all of the models have been terrible. The local forecast offices need to get off the model teet and get back to some good old fashioned forecasting. Don't bash me I'm just sayin'. Reliance on technology can be a crutch when there's a bug in the system. Youtube, Tesla, sleeping drivers. Just sayin'

I've never been able to tweet embed. True story

Spent about 15 years in Fl. Experienced some good ones. Some I chased some didn't have to. Elena (72 hours of hell), Andrew (West coast still a monster), Katrina (scariest cat 1/2 ever), Ivan (was prepared and actually enjoyed it) to name a few. I'm of the opinion know where you live. Canes come with the territory down there so deal with it and prepare yourself. For most of Fl. it's not that hard to evacuate 20 or 30 miles inland (if you have to go that far) if you live within 5 miles of the coast and then hunker down. If you live in Fl. and your evac plan is Georgia move back up north lol. Pinellas county (St. Pete, Clearwater, Largo area where I lived) is just a disaster waiting to happen however because there's just nowhere to go. Water on 3 sides, an average above sea level of about 15-20 feet, 4 bridges and a highway paralleling the coast north the only way out for about 1 million people to evacuate. It's been like 100 years since that area was slammed with a big dog and it will happen again. IMO that area is a powder keg during cane season.