Jackstraw

Yep. I'm a if its gonna get cold it better snow kinda guy lol. It's been ripping good for the last hour or so. Roads are going to shit rapidly. Some nice bands overhead and to the west yet to come. Gonna hit 3 going for 5 c'mon dammit!

Started slow and late here with a switch over from white rain to about 30 minutes of graupel before changing over to a fine light snow about an hour ago. Had a pesky low level warm tongue that some of the models showed. Under a decent band now vis down to 1/4 mile, still not impressive flake size but it's ripping pretty good. Getting close to an inch of kitchen sink type stuff but this current band has started to cover the secondary roads. Hoping the returns to the west keep filling in. Be nice to hit 3 on the ground a coup if we can hit 5 lol.

Decent soundings over the Shire here from about 2 to 6 off the 16Z HRRR.....

Flash freezing mentioned in KIND's AFD right around rush hour, glad I stayed and worked from home today. Starting to get a mix here at 34 degrees.

I have to say some of these snow maps are pretty wild looking due to it being early with fairly warm lake temps. The LES streaks are everywhere...

12Z NAM talk about an I-70 special lol

KIND threw out WWA's for most counties bordering KIWX's zone. Farther south could be a crazy evening commute out of Indy (crazier than normal folks there drive like idiots, worse than ATL) with definite light rain preceding a changeover to snow by the time the rats get let out at 5.

Going to be interesting how this pans out down here. We do get some lake enhancement all the way down here at times but the setup has to be just right and sometimes can add another 2-3 inches in a perfect scenario. The 12Z 3k NAM shows this. I'd feel a lot more confident on anything over 3" down here if this were a night time system but as the timing looks right now I'll go with 3" of sticky here. If the moderate temps during the onset are a bit overdone and we could get some +SN rates of over an 1" an hour as the NAM soundings show and the eastward shifting band off of the lake stays robust I could see us getting upwards of 6. Lot's of and, if's and butt's but thats how we roll down here lol. Still cool to see this this early.

Thanks for the jinx. I'll buy some coconut oil and keep a couple pairs of shorts out for a Xmas cookout now lol.

I swear some cosmic engineer laid I-70 out right along the midwest storm track because 40 was to far south lol. The American models have trended to some screw holes along the I-70 corridor but the others are colder. Experience says screw holes but with this anomalous pattern I'd lean across the pond.

My big sugar maples just dropped 5 inches of leaves the last 2 days if I slant stick it. If the NAM verifies in the short term and then a refresh midweek it'll look like a foot lol. Btw, is depth to measured off the dirt or whatever is above the dirt. If it's above I'll stop mowing the end of August so I can feel good about a 2 inch misery snow

Yeah and that sucks. Granted early cold but with no snow I hate cold dry crap even if it was in September lol. Like Stebo said, we need this trough a little more west to get some moisture pumped into this anomalous pattern. I just hate cold and dry Tibet'n steppe crap anytime of year.

Yeah I was surprised to see this much discussion on a GFS run this far out. Think the Halloween event triggered some irrational thinking like if you had a first date with the head cheerleader in high school and she teased you into thinking the second date was going to be THE date lol. Regardless I bought a bottle of my winter single barrel a little early this year just in case.

Working in West Laf. Rain snow mix now with 36 degrees. Didn't think it was supposed to start until after 3.

The RAP dropping almost a foot???? Boy wouldnt that be a coup.

Now thats getting just close enough to start p#%@ng me off, better start bitching thread lol.

You mean like 5 years ago the GFS would spit out a 10 day clown map of 2 feet from St. Louis to Detroit or the last couple years a 3 day clown map of 36 inches from Dallas to Toledo. I swear the last couple years all of the models have been terrible. The local forecast offices need to get off the model teet and get back to some good old fashioned forecasting. Don't bash me I'm just sayin'. Reliance on technology can be a crutch when there's a bug in the system. Youtube, Tesla, sleeping drivers. Just sayin'

Screw the 80 degrees. I'm just flipping out we're actually having a fall season this year, lovin every minute of it. lol.

I've got a huge sugar maple in my yard and that thing is just fabulous every fall with flaming red and bright fire orange (I also tap it for syrup). This is the first year in the 7 years I've been here that its not stood out. Still nice but definitely not up to it's normal grandeur. I've noticed also that the oaks and sycamores around here aren't performing at all. Even the redbuds and tulips are going straight to brown. There are patches of maples, especially up around the Wabash river valley that are putting on a show. But for the most part this fall isnt up to Bob Ross's standards

Yeah that 00Z HRRR run was kinda nuts with a squeaker band that far south late tomorrow night early Wed. Got a little support from the other convective models. I get nervous seeing a couple inches of flakes fly even to my NW, this early. This pattern has been locked in for awhile. Like Stebo said hope it holds for another 6 weeks anyway, could get an early Dec. ball buster.

3k NAM looks to be taking the warm lake water into consideration

Was so busy didnt see this coming, or just wasn't paying attention. Power just coming on this morning after going out late last night. After the day long down pour the wind really kicked in and there were several transformers popping around here. Green skies at night.

Talk about wam bam thank ya mam