Jackstraw

Was watching this earlier. Surface freezing is just south of I70 right now. According to meso analysis 925 freeze line is up to Ft. Wayne and 850's are already half way through MI. Had some light ZR a little while ago, maybe some ZR drizzle now with a surface temp of 30 and climbing already. WAA is going to blow through most of IN if this keeps up. Don't think we have much to worry about except lots of cold ass rain. I would venture to say even points to the far NW may come out better. Looks like as always the WAA overperforms the models. Kinda surprised. I would think as this thing shears out the pump would weaken. Mediocre Pacific heat pumped by that extra tropical storm NE of HI last week along with untouched GOM torch water and damn near 0 arctic air mass leads to the GFS solution Saturday for us. A freakin mess lol.

How the hell can a warm blooded hairy ass animal go outside for 30 min and come back in looking like a frozen freak show? I have a new ZR gauge.

Just let the dogs in. No precip 30 min ago when I let them out. They look like Billy Idol twins now, freakin frozen Godzilla spikes on their backs lol.

This is a bit surprising, or not lol. Freezing level is really really shallow already, maybe 2k feet. Depth of the warmth is under 700 mb right now. Models had it deeper yesterday.....

06Z HRRR sounding in my area around 10am Fri. Some deep saturation and pretty strong forcing. That's a deep ass warm tongue if I've ever seen one. Similar soundings a couple hours either side. Will be interesting if it pans out....

Ripped a Gomer surprise 1.5" earlier. Slick as a Witches T$%t out.

That would make sense. Not sure how cold for how long they were up there but hard surface temps would lag behind air temp increases also, especially if air temps were jumping up quickly. We had some decent ice here about 3 years ago with the air temp around 27 over the dark hours rising to 35 by early morning when the precip hit. Had a nice glaze over everything by noon with a temp, and the sun, of around 35-36 before it crashed. It was weird because the glaze all thawed at once on a sunny afternoon and just started falling off the trees all at once.

Be interesting to see where the confluence zone sets up between the 2 waves. Couple models were pinstriping some decent snow just north of it yesterday morning. My temps have been actually dropping as opposed to rising as forecasted. Been at 32 most of the day now down to 29 and 0 precip thus far. Precip shield is well N/NW still. Hey man, I can dream

I was surprised how well it did (at least against itself) with the tropics this year. It was pretty tight on the H5 anomalies over the summer which could've made it look good tropic wise especially with GOM tracks. To be honest, this past summer the H5 setup resembled what's going on now.

Cudos to those that got the hammer. Those that got the sink, models seem to be giving you a second chance SE bump with wave 2. Looks like there will even be a moisture starved wave 3 that could toss those of us in the orphanage an inch here and there maybe Sunday. NYD is forecast to be the warmest at KIND since 2000, ROCK! There's plenty of consistency over the next 10 days from the models... for absolutely nothing. WTF do they know! lol

Nice and most deserving of late. Looks like you're gonna get to keep it for at least a week too.

As the mania of the front end thump wanes to the reality of the 850 devil, it can be very depressing so feel free to message me, it's the story of my winters lately here in the hinterlands and I have a way to deal with it

The models recently are like watching NeckCar at Talladega. Whomever is leading, the next lap they're liable to be 20th the following lap. But there's gonna be 2 or 3 big ones they catch, just a matter of where east of the Mississippi it happens

Good job, now put it back when it's over and you can act like the nasties never happened!

Saw that on Scope also (seeing as how it's the only decent radar left!). Meso was showing some decent 6-6.5 lapse rates moving up ahead of the mixing line. Don't think I've ever seen gravity wave depictions on radar in a winter storm.

I'm down near the end of that proboscis band and my sounding is almost as good... except it'll last 5 minutes lol....

Pretty rippin' sounding in Chicago Tues. evening...

The 00Z GFS is just a big fat icey, sleety, rainy kiss my ass kitchen sink mess. Just what I'm used to the past few years

Nice LR discussion from Ryan at KIND..... .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 241 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020 The second part of the storm system set to impact the region the second half of the week remains the primary focus for the extended and unfortunately at this stage of the game...is offering more questions than answers on specific impacts for central Indiana on New Years Eve and New Years Day. A strong ridge across the eastern half of the country will be slowly but steadily flattened by a strong upper low that will pinwheel out of northern Mexico and across Texas Wednesday night and Thursday before lifting north into the Great Lakes by late Friday. There has been a noted westward shift in the model suite over the last 24 to 36 hours with respect to the upper low track due to more energy aloft carving out the massive trough over the central portion of the country and a strengthening of the upper ridge off the Florida coast. The upper low takes on a negative tilt which pulls it further west as well. That being said...the model suite is all over the place with its handling of the secondary surface wave set to develop along the frontal boundary and lift northeast towards the Ohio Valley by late Thursday. While there has been a westward shift at the surface as well...the main operational models with the exception of the GGEM are further west than the ensemble means. It should be noted that a surface wave track due north or slightly east of north off the Louisiana coast is a bit of a climatologically unfavorable track for a surface wave. Just another point to toss into the jumble of thoughts this afternoon. A general blend at this point is preferred until better model agreement can develop. So...what can we take away at this point 4-5 days out? Confidence is high in a higher impact storm moving through the Ohio Valley and central Indiana for New Years Eve and New Years Day. But that is about all that can be said right now. The lack of model agreement and fluidity of the entire suite lends no confidence into the details of the forecast and impacts...namely precip type duration and intensity. The storm will have access to a rich plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will ensure modest precip amounts from Wednesday night into Friday. Expect rain to continue as the precip type to start Wednesday night with the potential for some wintry mischief on the northern flank of the precip shield late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as low level thermals become marginal. There is likely to be a lull in precip coverage on Thursday before moisture returns with the approach of the second surface low late Thursday into Friday. Storm track will become critical at this point in determining precip type but the potential for at least some snow and/or ice accums is a possibility that needs to be considered. A track that ends up east would bring a greater risk for either snow or ice but even should the track of the low remain further west...an easterly flow in the low levels Thursday night into Friday morning as the low approaches could present some problems over the forecast area with an increased potential for an icy mess in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet. Expect at least another 36-48 hours before we can gain more clarity on the details with this storm system and the likely impacts locally here in central Indiana. The primary area of upper energy will come onshore over California on Monday with better sampling of the feature coming thereafter. At this point...prepare for a higher impact winter storm over the Ohio Valley from the second half of Wednesday into New Years Day with locally heavy rainfall...a wintry mix or perhaps some accumulations of snow and/or ice all within the range of possibilities. Dry and chilly weather will follow the departure of this system for next weekend.

Final call, frozen mud stalagmites and some dandruff falling . I wasn't touching this one with a 10 ft North Pole lol.

Woke up to a nice fluffy 4. Finally looks like winter out

Who am I foolin lol. Might not see snow till next month. Hazard of my climo. That FG band was pretty broken up when it was S/SW of Indy. Filled in nicely as it moved NNE. If we can keep some decent UL forcing going for the next 6 hours or so could end up being the first healthy grass topper around here. Definitely some good snow globe stuff out right now. IWX might wake up to a surprise

Nightly gathering of dogs and prostate relief lol. Nice big flakes at a good clip. .5" in like 15 min. Too tired or I'd stay up and enjoy it

Think I'm gonna go a last minute 2. Returns were weakening but are showing some decent FG recovery, although light. Shall see, sometimes these late night systems can surprise. Still be waiting on my Xmas miracle lol.