Jackstraw

This is just down right scary

Overnight AFDs gonna be interesting

00Z Euro keeps getting drier. Its not a lack of overlapping. Im wondering where these 2-3 in Pwats that forecasters were worried about a couple days ago are. There was strong wording about potential flooding to our south. I know its a bit early but meso is barely showing 1 in coming in from the gulf. The upslope moisture occurring seems to be from tapping into the Pac jet, 700mb quite saturated. I get a weaker surface reflection in part 2 but complete fizzle? Im probably wrong but something fishy seems to be going on lol.

maybe due to open lake water? points E and SE are turning faster than the timeline LOT posted.

00Z Canuk didnt really benefit anyone to the N but it chopped the legs out from underneath us in the south

Ohhhh, no you didunt! lol

850 freezing line is outrunning the surface freezing level fairly quickly, been posted and some AFD's commenting on that. Surface VTM for what its worth is setting up pretty much where most models have been forecasting highest totals for the last 36 hours. Think part 1 could overperform if it can hold on to the 700mb moisture for any length of time. Part 2 is beginning to somewhat amp up with >1 PWATS finally moving N of TN valley. Just my armchair take. I used to get chastised for posting HRRR and RAP snow maps but they seem to be all the rage now lol.

03Z RAP cracking me up lol

18Z RAP soundings now have me under 6 hours of pingers and FZ. Better not have to give up a foot of snow for that just so the folks on Northern edge can get 3 or 4 more inches. Thats meltdown criteria lol.

Never seen a mesoscale surface pressure map like this. Its almost symmetrical lol. Can definitely see the area where the clash will begin.

KIND has slowed the onset of liquid here by 6 hours

Looks like the GFS has a stronger upper trough over Hudson bay reinforcing the southerly cold air push suppressing the surface wave. GDPS has that trough weaker and flatter allowing the surface wave to hook a little longer before shunting east. Maybe

I sure hope the ice totals on the far south edge are way overdone. I wouldn't wish 2 inches of FZ on anyone. Those totals could be pretty devastating across 8 states.

KIND mets tired? lol .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 259 AM EST Tue Feb 1 2022 Dry but cold weather will follow Friday into early next week. Temperatures should stay below normal with little if any snow.

so who u buck tucking the most? Sugar Icon? (bringin back the dancin 'mater lol)

True but youd think alot of it would be shunted south and east. Theres been an overall drying trend. Total QPF has come down fairly significantly across the globals in the last 24hrs

Models are slowly waking up from their crack party when it comes to totals.

Think this 00Z GFS initiation at the surface has a lot to say generally

Just received

We are now into the 3 dimensional Pachinko phase of the game lol.

Subtle differences in the way the models are handling that cutoff off the mid-atalantic. seems the ones with a more N bias have it stronger pumping the mid level ridge some

Thats actually a bit of hope where we're at here. At least with a fully phased system its like a hooker, you pretty much know what your gonna get. These quasi phased half slop messes more often than not with the second part we get bent over like the last goat in a herd in the desert whithout a courtesy reach around.

You must be riding the RAP lol

KIWX going with 6-10 inches Wed and Wed night 2 miles to my north. KIND not biting on snowfall amounts 2 miles to my south. Thats life on the edge lol. KIWX Wednesday Rain before 9am, then snow. High near 35. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. KIND Wednesday Snow, possibly mixed with rain, becoming all snow after 2pm. High near 36. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Wednesday Night Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain, becoming all snow after 8pm. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. KIND for Kokomowx 15 miles to the NW Wednesday Freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all snow after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. North northeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Agreed. Not buying those 25-30 in totals either. Think this 12Z Euro run makes more sense, with the usual 10-15% or so reduction, from a storm(s) total standpoint. And of course because it keeps the FZ- pinger party away from me