Jackstraw

Same here, hard to measure. We're some reports of 7-8 over in Grant county and I think MIE only reported 2.5. Huge cutoff there in a span of 20 miles. I too was getting excited for a potential double digit. Don't know about up that way but when we did a switch over to some pingers then rain for about 30 min the faucet shut off. Got dry slotted hard here, for almost 4 hours of nothing. Wasn't expecting that. Yeah it was a blast driving around. Some on the board may not get it but when you live in rural areas you dont have to worry much about the other guy. I will say when it switched to rain the traction level went to -100 and I limped home. Was lol at the TV news in Indy. I mean ok, it was a record snowfall for the date, but lord talk about hype over 3 or 4 inches on a weekend. Wet stuff didnt really hit here until the latter half of accumulations. Such is life here in the hinterlands lol. 5-6 is still respectable for our area. Waiting on the March 2018 repeat lol

Besides the fact me and the dogs are now in trouble think that little break cost me an inch or 2. Heading back wsw now, 1/4 mile vis again. Seriously half dollars

Back to full +SN now. Much bigger flakes now.

Got about 3 here so far. Beatin down by the WAA that I should never question. Literally less than 5 miles here between an inch and 3 or so. 2 miles to my N still SN. Walkin the tightrop

Its freakin pinger city here after I saw that flash. Im 20 miles east, heading north to get back into that wall. Damn thunder pingers

I now 2nd that

Not seeing the typical plaster snow that was expected. Seeing a dry slot in S IN working its way behind this incoming heavy WAA band. Hopefully the main system moves east some, fills it in, before it gets here. An inch so far, and its not wet. Sure it will be later as that LLJ cranks in a few hours. No rain which is good. Warm LL temps weren't forecast to really make a march N here until 06-09Z Shall see, just SN atm. Hoosier and ChicagoWX know where I'm at so of course it had to start with pingers. Always a damn pinger mixed in there somewhere around here lol.

Wife has to work till 10. Told me sternly no snow chasing this evening I could here my old truck hollering so Im heading out to witness the "wall" and will take my lumps lol. Its been over a year since Berthas been in 4wd. Gotta exercise them old bones. Had a few pingers. Still some dry air issues but dont think temps are gonna be an issue for most if not all of this.

There's some really intense shear and vorticity near the center of this low visible on Sat.

That big guy behind him cracks me the hell up every time I see this lol. Sorry for OT

Nice tip from Ryan at KIND in the near term... .NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/... Issued at 332 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Well...it is about go time with our impending winter storm as an area of precipitation largely in the form of rain approaches steadily from the southwest this afternoon. 20Z temperatures are largely in the mid and upper 30s over the forecast area currently. Moving into the nowcast phase at this point with the onset of heavy snow now just a few hours out and expected to impact the northeast half of the area from late afternoon/early evening into the overnight. For those that might be alarmed at the fact that the bulk of the precipitation approaching is in the form of light rain...do not be. This was and has been expected. Some patience is going to be required to let the atmosphere do what it needs to in order for snow to commence by early evening at most. First off...a cold dry airmass remains over the region and some time will be needed to fully saturate the column. That will take place over the next few hours courtesy of increasing moisture advection into the region as a low level jet strengthens. This feature will work in tandem with increasing isentropic lift as well. The kicker though to help introduce the snow will be the evaporative cooling processes which will serve to cool the lower levels as moistening takes place. With wet bulb temps remaining in the lower 30s...should see surface temps fall back close to freezing and allow a quick changeover to snow by 22-23Z for much of the northeast half of the forecast area.

KIND pulled the trigger on warnings for it's northern tier.

Just give me a week of clippers like the old days

Think there's going to be some discussions between KIND and KIWX on whether to upgrade to warnings or or issue advisories with the northern tier and southern tier respectively during the overnight AFD's. I can see points either way. I know the overlords to the NW never pay attention to us lol but I'm serious, this area from about 20 miles N of I70 to about 70 miles N of I70 in eastern IL, Central IN and West Central Ohio has got to be a nightmare for forecasters. It can more often than not be like nowcast central. It's not like I80. You bust the forecast here its the difference of 6 or 8 inches or 0 with ice or nothing. There's no cushion up or down for the most part, no well they said 8 I only got 2. I'm going for 8 with a better than 2-1 chance of busting low with a high of 10. IWX's call I think's good, Kokomowx's call is probably sweating less than I am. Placing all my bets on dynamic cooling and the fact forecast temps have been 2-4 degrees higher than observed for over the last month. Cards all in on this one with no arctic air, I must be nuts lol.

It's taking the surface low on the perfect track for an I70 special, just south of the Oh river. With no impinging cold from the north don't know how much I buy it.

I've been saying that about Santa Clause for 50 years lol

By about 50-75 miles. gets the 850 nose all the way up to just south of FWA when it was just north of of I-70 at 18Z. It's trying to p*%s on my parade big time lol.

Just change your screen name to "I Like Where I'm Sitting" lol

Just about as bullish an AFD from KIND on not just this system but the next 10 days as I've ever seen. Especially considering the potential for a backend kitchen sink this weekend. If the models are still this consistent thru Friday I'll expect to enjoy the initial thump before mother nature fixes the water heater. Buckle up? .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 The primary focus for the extended will be on the potential for a high impact winter storm over parts of central Indiana this weekend. In addition as has been expected since the Fall...this appears to be the opening salvo to the transition to a much more active weather pattern that may set the stage for the second half of the winter. An additional higher impact storm already appears on the horizon near the end of the forecast period later next week. A strong upper level low off the Pacific coast today will be the primary catalyst for our weekend system as its energy kicks onshore tonight then shifts east into the first part of the weekend. This system will strengthen as energy aloft phases over the Missouri Valley Saturday then tracks through the region Sunday. At the surface...low pressure will eject out of the central Rockies Saturday morning and move first into the mid Mississippi Valley by Saturday night and across the Ohio Valley Sunday. The combination of the upper low and surface wave will result in a complex but potent winter storm that is set to bring for some the best shot at accumulating snow so far this winter and really in the last couple of winters. Initially...Saturday will start out dry with increasing clouds as the region remains under the influence of the retreating high pressure. The location of the high to our east will serve as a critical component for the first phase of the storm set to begin impacting the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night. A residual cold...dry airmass will still be present even as the high pressure departs. The surge of isentropic lift that arrives in tandem with the initial precip should have no trouble overcoming the dry air and evaporative cooling processes will pull temps back and make snow the likely predominant precip type at onset. The lift will be aided by a strong 50+kt low level jet and an axis of mid level deformation as well. This supports the potential for a potent front end snow thump that could bring a few inches of accumulation right out of the gate Saturday evening. Warm advection will be delayed but closely following the initial surge of moisture with precip transitioning to a rain/snow mix or even fully to rain Saturday evening and night from the southwest. Still high uncertainty on exactly where the transition zone sets up but likely to be aligned somewhere across the northern forecast area by daybreak Sunday. As the low shifts across the forecast area Sunday...much of the forecast area is likely to see a cold rain before the rain/snow line shifts back late day Sunday through early Monday where additional snow accumulations are likely to be in play. A couple of takeaway points with the weekend storm system: - prepare for a high impact winter storm with travel difficulties especially late Saturday through early Monday at times - the eventual location of the transition line will dictate snowfall accumulations and duration of varying precip types - ice is not expected to be a concern...precip should largely be in the form of snow and rain - this has the potential to be the highest impact winter storm to effect central Indiana in terms of potential snowfall accumulations in 3 years - winter weather headlines will likely be needed within the next 24- 36 hours as more model consensus narrows down the details For the remainder of the extended through the first half of next week...expect largely quiet weather in the wake of the weekend storm. Strong high pressure will enable a cold airmass to establish with potential for any snow cover to impact how cold temperatures get. This could have an influence on the next storm system in the pipeline set to impact the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. Trends with that storm support more of a lake cutter with warmer air advecting into central Indiana...but the presence of the residual cold air from earlier in the week could create some icing concerns from that system initially with rain and convection later on. Still several days away from hammering down specifics but something to watch going into next week. Buckle up.

Winter thread of the season right here lol.

Hopefully it does. FWIW there does seem to be consensus, if there can be at this range, of finally a real winter airmass settling in for a bit after this coming weekend. That GFS is 2015 brutal in its extended playland. That cold air is something we've been lacking the last couple winters and this year. We get some of our best snows on either side of a deep arctic airmass down here in central IN. Also opens the door for the unheard of lately clippers. Gotta pay to play

Models have sucked outside 24 maybe 36 hours out, not just this winter but all year. Don't think there's anything wrong with them. I think it's due to a lack of data. Not sure how much weight aircraft data plays into it but we're still at 50%-60% worldwide from this time last year, less on ocean crossing data. I can't help but think it's still having an impact. I could be wrong. I don't trust any model outside 24 maybe 36 hours out especially involving upper air features that ROAB sites sample 24-36 hours before they make it half way across the conus. 12Z Saturday I'll start making a short play on this storm. Edit: This isnt a wishcast just an observation.

Been trying to stay out of this discussion as I'm biased. I've been dealing with this virus, it's repercussions or whatever for 8 months. It's real for me. I lost one of my best friends last spring to it, lost my stepfather after a 5 week battle last week to it. I can't go more than 2 or 3 weeks without something being wrong and trust me, I'm no whiner. It's been 15 years since I even had the flu. You're not making a statement by not wearing a mask other than you're a selfish POS. Seriously, I'm sick of the excuses. Is it so much to ask if you go into a store to simply lift a bandana over your face at the very least? Those that refuse are as guilty as drunk drivers as far as I'm concerned. Some may get this, some won't. Those that do are already masking up, those that don't get this WEAR A FREAKIN MASK!!

I've been studying Wooly Bear Caterpillars for 45 years

Yeah, yeah. I'll be gloating during my Ides of March 12in blizzard. You know sun angle and crystal balls and such