Jackstraw

By about 50-75 miles. gets the 850 nose all the way up to just south of FWA when it was just north of of I-70 at 18Z. It's trying to p*%s on my parade big time lol.

Just change your screen name to "I Like Where I'm Sitting" lol

Just about as bullish an AFD from KIND on not just this system but the next 10 days as I've ever seen. Especially considering the potential for a backend kitchen sink this weekend. If the models are still this consistent thru Friday I'll expect to enjoy the initial thump before mother nature fixes the water heater. Buckle up? .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 The primary focus for the extended will be on the potential for a high impact winter storm over parts of central Indiana this weekend. In addition as has been expected since the Fall...this appears to be the opening salvo to the transition to a much more active weather pattern that may set the stage for the second half of the winter. An additional higher impact storm already appears on the horizon near the end of the forecast period later next week. A strong upper level low off the Pacific coast today will be the primary catalyst for our weekend system as its energy kicks onshore tonight then shifts east into the first part of the weekend. This system will strengthen as energy aloft phases over the Missouri Valley Saturday then tracks through the region Sunday. At the surface...low pressure will eject out of the central Rockies Saturday morning and move first into the mid Mississippi Valley by Saturday night and across the Ohio Valley Sunday. The combination of the upper low and surface wave will result in a complex but potent winter storm that is set to bring for some the best shot at accumulating snow so far this winter and really in the last couple of winters. Initially...Saturday will start out dry with increasing clouds as the region remains under the influence of the retreating high pressure. The location of the high to our east will serve as a critical component for the first phase of the storm set to begin impacting the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night. A residual cold...dry airmass will still be present even as the high pressure departs. The surge of isentropic lift that arrives in tandem with the initial precip should have no trouble overcoming the dry air and evaporative cooling processes will pull temps back and make snow the likely predominant precip type at onset. The lift will be aided by a strong 50+kt low level jet and an axis of mid level deformation as well. This supports the potential for a potent front end snow thump that could bring a few inches of accumulation right out of the gate Saturday evening. Warm advection will be delayed but closely following the initial surge of moisture with precip transitioning to a rain/snow mix or even fully to rain Saturday evening and night from the southwest. Still high uncertainty on exactly where the transition zone sets up but likely to be aligned somewhere across the northern forecast area by daybreak Sunday. As the low shifts across the forecast area Sunday...much of the forecast area is likely to see a cold rain before the rain/snow line shifts back late day Sunday through early Monday where additional snow accumulations are likely to be in play. A couple of takeaway points with the weekend storm system: - prepare for a high impact winter storm with travel difficulties especially late Saturday through early Monday at times - the eventual location of the transition line will dictate snowfall accumulations and duration of varying precip types - ice is not expected to be a concern...precip should largely be in the form of snow and rain - this has the potential to be the highest impact winter storm to effect central Indiana in terms of potential snowfall accumulations in 3 years - winter weather headlines will likely be needed within the next 24- 36 hours as more model consensus narrows down the details For the remainder of the extended through the first half of next week...expect largely quiet weather in the wake of the weekend storm. Strong high pressure will enable a cold airmass to establish with potential for any snow cover to impact how cold temperatures get. This could have an influence on the next storm system in the pipeline set to impact the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. Trends with that storm support more of a lake cutter with warmer air advecting into central Indiana...but the presence of the residual cold air from earlier in the week could create some icing concerns from that system initially with rain and convection later on. Still several days away from hammering down specifics but something to watch going into next week. Buckle up.

Winter thread of the season right here lol.

Hopefully it does. FWIW there does seem to be consensus, if there can be at this range, of finally a real winter airmass settling in for a bit after this coming weekend. That GFS is 2015 brutal in its extended playland. That cold air is something we've been lacking the last couple winters and this year. We get some of our best snows on either side of a deep arctic airmass down here in central IN. Also opens the door for the unheard of lately clippers. Gotta pay to play

Models have sucked outside 24 maybe 36 hours out, not just this winter but all year. Don't think there's anything wrong with them. I think it's due to a lack of data. Not sure how much weight aircraft data plays into it but we're still at 50%-60% worldwide from this time last year, less on ocean crossing data. I can't help but think it's still having an impact. I could be wrong. I don't trust any model outside 24 maybe 36 hours out especially involving upper air features that ROAB sites sample 24-36 hours before they make it half way across the conus. 12Z Saturday I'll start making a short play on this storm. Edit: This isnt a wishcast just an observation.

Been trying to stay out of this discussion as I'm biased. I've been dealing with this virus, it's repercussions or whatever for 8 months. It's real for me. I lost one of my best friends last spring to it, lost my stepfather after a 5 week battle last week to it. I can't go more than 2 or 3 weeks without something being wrong and trust me, I'm no whiner. It's been 15 years since I even had the flu. You're not making a statement by not wearing a mask other than you're a selfish POS. Seriously, I'm sick of the excuses. Is it so much to ask if you go into a store to simply lift a bandana over your face at the very least? Those that refuse are as guilty as drunk drivers as far as I'm concerned. Some may get this, some won't. Those that do are already masking up, those that don't get this WEAR A FREAKIN MASK!!

I've been studying Wooly Bear Caterpillars for 45 years

Yeah, yeah. I'll be gloating during my Ides of March 12in blizzard. You know sun angle and crystal balls and such

Nah, we're good

I'd say zzzzz too except I don't trust any of these models more than a day maybe 2 out the way they've been performing. It could snow pigeon eggs Wed. night for all they know

Congrats, I know you guys whiteknuckle winter just about as much as we do over hear lol.

Welcome to the I70 psyche ward. I say it every year. Tracking winter systems through here will make ya nuts lol. KIND is not exactly a snow magnet, averaging around 25 inches a year (That's 2in less than the national average). You spread that out over 16-20 weeks and doesn't take to many of these pecker gnat systems to fill that up. Heck I'm supposed to average about 30" 50 miles to the north, I've already got 8 and 5 of that was back in Nov. And if it does lay down a blanket don't count on it sticking around long until we get into late January and February' Both of those months are also notorious for subzero temps, howling winds and bare cornfields around here . We've also been severely lacking in clippers lately. I moved here 10 years ago and half my snow totals were a couple strong clipper trains. Climo around here is a fickle lady in the winter. There has been a bit of a snow drought of late I will admit. I don't think I've reached average snowfall in 5 years. We just happen to be in a bittersweet spot for winter storm tracks where a 20 mile shift in the track can mean the difference in cold rain or 8" of snow. The rubberband is gonna snap at some point and will get 12 incher fly through here, we're definitely due. Our best chances for snow are latter half of January into March anyway so our climo is just revving up. I think we;ve got a better chance coming up than we have the past few winters anyway. (insert glass half full) KIND NWS Climo

Central Indiana, the aliens have arrived....

Started rip city here about 15 min ago... for 5 min. Have half dollar raindrops mixing in now. Also looks like I'm gonna get dry slotted by an 8th grade punk system. Gonna lay my watermelon in some Easter hay and watch the rest of the new Zappa doc. (Highly recommended btw) Let the Shakespearean Tragedy continue .

What's a clipper

Report from Monticello IL of 8in, 6 from Argenta and Mt. Zion all within the last hour. Friend 20 miles N of me said it started ripping about 15 min ago.. As a bitching note, all these websites moving to graphical phone friendly designs for their sites suck.

Baby Kanuk nailed the snow around Champaign at 00Z if it comes to fruition. Have some low/mid level dry air issues in IN but as the UL moves ENE should ring those out in the next hour.. Possible defo zone setting up from around Danville Il. up through Marion IN. -SN here, probably reach my 2in forecast for temporary relief from mudpocalypse. Points just to my N, especially IWX, are still in the game for an over performer.

IWX 7pm update .Update... Issued at 717 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Trends in near term guidance along with upstream sat/radar depiction of vigorous sw disturbance and attendant baroclinic leaf lifting out of nrn AR and expansion of radar returns through cntrl TN/wrn KY along leading edge of return moisture plume. This portents a brief period of mod-hvy snow likely to develop after midnight. Some nw displacement of H7 dilatation axis also noted in model guidance and suspect a robust deformation response aloft will occur overhead for a time late tonight. Thus have backed prior gridded stripe of higher qpf a bit nwwd esp under the guise of related H7 pivot point shaping up further nw from prior. Otherwise with a period of low static stability aloft timed with wwd arching but brief trowal, some banded enhancement likely which may yield some over performance in snow amounts northeast. Regardless rapid newd progression of upper sys lends a risk of going any higher with top end snow probs even though they may verify correct in some locations far northeast. Otherwise primarily a snow event with drizzle persisting this evening before ice nucleation takes over with arrival of upstream mid level moisture slug.

Nice, thanx. Around 20 seconds in looks like a scene from Ice Road Truckers lol

Can't burst my bubble, I live in north central IN climo hell lol. HRRR gives me a little love too with wave 3. It'll all turn to mud anyway, I'll take the eye candy if I can get it

Got a surprise 1.5 SN with wave 1, just enough early morning ice out of wave 2 to turn my dogs onto Nazi Punks F&$k Off, I'll gladly take this out of wave 3 and cash out until the 15th

HRRR been trimming the southern extent of ice in Indiana but cranking it in northern IN and far southern MI and NW OH over the last 6 hours.... .

Weird, I'm melting off the roof here. Windshield is water drops. Had some ice on the porch a few hours ago but it's melted. I'm up to 32.5 now. Gone up a degree an hour since 4am.

As I typed that the surface freeze line moved N of Indy. I'll be above 0C by 9am. Looks like if anyone is going to get ice it'll be NW IL/ SE IA. Most of MO at or above 0C now except for far NW. I really am surprised a 1006 low is lifting this much warmth this aggressively. I was thinking noon to 2pm to hit 0C from an overnight low of -5C. Not complaining, only thing I hate more than ice is mud. My temps up to 31F now. Guess I'll get the greater of 2 evils lol.