Jackstraw

I'm calling 4 as this back end defo sets up this evening. I'm gonna be on the tail end of it. Models support that call somewhat, its a bit high, by I don't care lol. I NEED snow cover to end this near record setting cold for the last half of FEB coming in for here. Cold is not justified without snow!

The rest of us in Back Side Betty Weenieville are looking good late Sat into Sun on these 0Z runs. Yeah I know, I'm on a slippery rug until tomorrow lol.

Ours is coming very late Saturday night into Sunday. If we get any it's on the backside and all of the models are consistently showing a backside hit after the liquid, which is good. The ground around here is far from warm so sticking won't be an issue IMO. Keep the faith! lol

Well if that's 3-6 here I'll take it lol

Hey man, a lot of us down here in kitchen sink land have a shot at 3-6 the night of the `16th into the 17th lol. I vote to add those 2 days because this system has 2 personalities lol.

If MBY is gonna get a wrap around butt kick (for me it's 4in lol) this is the kind of storm to do it

And for properly waiting until the day of because of these fallible models lol

I'm hanging popsicle sticks on the clothesline tomorrow to give me something to suck on while I'm curled up in the fetal position until march lol

That full run of the 12Z Euro to finish the month is ridiculously cruel. I'm not even going to post an image of such cruelty

I'll take that 00Z Canuck on a date lol

Ha!! Great pics! Saw a few yesterday also. I saw more flying south back in early - mid November than I've seen in 5 years. I thought "Oh boy, it's either gonna be a snowy or cold or both December or January." Got more snow in January than the totals each of the last 2 years and yes, it got cold as crap. We average 24 - 30 a year here. Hasn't happened since I think 2020 and that was nickel dime hell if I remember right. This damn rubber bands gotta snap at some point. Yep, that's a good sign for us that it's probably over. Maybe a wishful thinking March dog lol.

Talk about an I70 screw hole on these models, with both systems yanking NW no less. Then theres a strong signal for suppression following this week. Like the Chiefs last night I punt this shit lol

Depends on where your at lol. MBY is once again (as usual) in that razor thin cutoff zone. Its there, trust me lol.

18Z GFS blows chunks for me. Went from 4-6 to 0 lol

Started pouring at my house then switched straight over to quarter size flakes for about 15 min now stopped. Freakin' weird.

Thats the problem with this pattern we're now in (as opposed to the pre- January arctic blast). I mean it's a decent setup for the entire sub with storm tracks but if one winds up it's gonna pump "hot 850's" right over the top of us and we get the gambit of everything but most of our moisture will drop as liquid (more frozen mud ) while those to the north cash in with a 12+ incher or if it's a fizzled piece-o-crap it slides south and spits some in KY that'll melt the next day or 2. I know the Chicago weenies are frothing at the mouth (when aren't they lol) and want 2 feet 25 miles north or south of Chitown lol but I'll take a a couple decent 6 or 7 back to back that spreads the wealth any day. I'm not totally buying into this track yet and think there's a decent chance, at least snow totals, could swing back south some 50 to 75 miles. But such is the Climo for our locations

Yes and I hope I'm in it. As I posted before those of us that are north of I70 this setup is going to be feast or famine. Of course the last couple of runs have been wagons north so this thread will have 100 pages by tomorrow lol

Yeah we got about the same but the "Thunder Ice" was nuts. Had those storms training right over me for 3-4 hours with a lightning show better than I had all summer! Thunder was much louder than summer probably due to the colder denser air. My dogs were freaking out until about 3am. Pretty crazy stuff! Sad about the house burning.

Well those of us in I70 Kitchen Sink Land will be nervously hopeful over the next 10 days. With this forecast setup of a sharp baroclinic zone from the SW to the NE US with the battle ground here centered somewhere between the Ohio River and I70 is like playing a casino snow slot machine for us. Hopefully after tonight we can stay in the cold conveyor. I'm already sick of the mud

Well January for me was happy for the snow that fell. We got that initial 10 ten on the ground in a week with a couple nickel and dimers after which beat the entire winter totals of each of the last 2 years, before that arctic boot stepped in and suppressed everything to the south. January 2025 will be remembered by me as the glacier that wouldn't die. That brief bit of rain we received between the 2 arctic blasts just turned everything into 3-4 inches of solid ice. The shit was so hard out in my yard I tossed a 60's vintage lawn Jart out there and when it hit it "doinked" about as loud as that Commanders luckiest suckiest ever field goal in playoff history. The ice ruts in my 1/4 mile long dirt/gravel (its time) driveway finally melted away yesterday. I kinda liked them, I had a self driving driveway for most of January lol. Now its a gravel mud shake but I'm staying in the grooves for a re-freeze hardware upgrade to my "self driving" truck lol. Hope February can fill those ruts up with more snow!

See my Sig line quote from Stebo many moons ago lmao

Yeah its going to start going quick here tomorrow then its the start of Mud Mania 2025! lol

That's why I I'm gonna appreciate this little half inch clean up snow we just got to ice our 3-4 inch glacier (one of the hardest deepest glacier packs in recent memory here). The pattern he speaks of usually brings us in kitchen sink row row just that, a crappy rain, sleet, snow menagerie lol. Definitely looks like better probs for the I-80 crowd to get some welcome relief. Meanwhile this stuff here is fixing to go away next week and we'll be in the dreaded mud/frozen mud 24 hour cycle for a bit. I hope we can swing through another decent snow before the February cold box settles in. I don't care what anyone says 10F feels like 30F when there's snow on the ground

I have no memory left but... I do remember sometime back maybe 2015? not sure when a similar pattern as this set in sparked off by a very strong very late season (like December) west Pacific tropical system that was absorbed and enhanced an already strong low in the northern jet stream. When it hit the US it allowed a crazy near record (maybe record?) setting polar high in 1050's to come crashing into the plains behind it and that ridge set there for over a month suppressing the storm track well below the MD line. I think it was a record setting winter for much of the deep south. It was just bitter cold arctic tundra up here that winter and it sucked. Except for last week I feel like that's where we're headed for the next few weeks with polar ridges in the mid to high 1040's being advertised. Note: Once again, my memory is severely flawed these days

Nice! I'm at 3.5 on a clean board, still falling. The Dendrite machine had to work it's ass off to get this. I barely saw a flake larger than a dime but the salt shaker in the sky was shakin' hard. The WWA around here was definitely warranted as roads went to (and still are) complete s@$t between 3 and 6. This is the kind of nickle dime pile ups I'm used to around here lol. 10 inches in a week? Where the hell am I