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  1. Quite the downgrade from 18z. Seems like a nowcast event.
  2. Fair point. Let's see if NAM 3km and RGEM are in the same ballpark as HRRR.
  3. HRRR has been solid this year. Back to back winters with a footer? I say we do it. If we see 12", it'll be the snowiest winter since 08-09 at YYZ haha.
  4. I like how you didn't use YYZ. It was a 5" storm at YYZ lol. Seems like a WNY special. I don't think there's any radar reanalysis maps that go back that far.
  5. Yeah were in line to get 8-12" tomorrow too.
  6. Nice to see a WNY and ON special for once.
  7. EC issues a snowfall warning for Toronto. 6-10” by Thursday morning.
  8. Latest HRRR has ~8” in Toronto by 6z Thurs and still snowing. Heaviest amounts centred from Hamilton to Oshawa including Toronto. Feeling more confident with 6-10”.
  9. Sounds like a Dec ‘16 repeat band. RGEM is a bit more east with the heavier amounts. Closer to 8”.
  10. That Jan 10-12 storm was a quality rainer. 3” in mid Jan. Can’t get much better than that.
  11. 6z models trended weaker and bit further SE compared to 00Z. 4-6" seems like a good call for now barring any major changes at 12z.
  12. 00Z RGEM even further SE. Has the sweet band just south of Toronto now.
  13. We had a rare band off Georgian Bay rip through the city a few years ago. Dropped 3" in an hour. The city was at a standstill haha. Our geographic location has its benefits but a lot of drawbacks too lol. Either way, it's nice to have welcoming neighbours across the border.
  14. The NAM 3km literally parks the Low right over us. I'd be worried about being dry slotted near the end but nothing like the GHD event. I agree. A slight shift NW is still doable but by a fraction at best. NAM 3km has the freezing line right along the Lake. UKIE has handled this event the best.