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Snowstorms

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    CYYZ
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    Toronto

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  1. For us, the two most recent late winter storms would have to be (not including today): Apr 3/4, 2016 - 5.5" Mat 23, 2011 - 5.0" Our climo supports more smaller events (<3") than bigger storms after mid March.
  2. I just measured 6.2" in my backyard. Great storm. This storm will push YYZ ahead of 06-07 and 15-16, which would put it at 6th lowest ever. If we used a combination of Toronto and North York (1840-present) then 2023-24 would be 4th lowest lol. Doesn't matter how we spin it, this winter was a monstrosity for all of us.
  3. @mississaugasnowYYZ has somehow surpassed 09-10 and 52-53 and is now sitting at 4th least snowiest on record. Friday's storm could make the difference if we surpass 06-07 or not. Won't change anything. This was winter was total horseshit. But glad we avoided a futility winter.
  4. 2008-09 and 2011-12 were second year La Nina's preceded by much stronger La Nina's the year before. So I don't know if that matters from an analog perspective. 2016-17 hardly lasted for more than 5 months and only bottomed out at -0.7. 2016-17 could be an analog depending on the strength but that's far out anyways.
  5. Great post. There's been a lot of comments about the warmth in the last couple of winters being driven by the -PDO but I don't think so. Just a quick glance at the SST maps can tell you how atypical the current -PDO looks despite a deeply negative anomaly. I believe the period between 1998-2014 was the last time we had a true -PDO phase and it was quite reflective in the Pacific ssts. And we experienced several cold winters in that period especially from 2007-2015. Maybe a strong La Nina may shift those anomalies and also drive down Pacific SST's especially off the coast of Japan and in the WPAC. The warm Atlantic and +AMO don't help us either. A poleward Aleutian ridge if linked with Atlantic blocking can be beneficial for the east too. It may not be a super cold pattern as the EPO would be neutral, but it would be below normal overall. If I'm not mistaken, we saw that in December 2010.
  6. Probably won't last for more than a few days to a week. Models have been advertising a "pattern change" or "cold air" in the medium-long range all winter going back to December and it never came to fruition except for a brief 7-10 day period in mid January. Outside of that, it's been historically warm. I'm not sold on any real pattern change for us right now. Even 2015-16 had more cold periods in JFM than this winter despite an historically warm December. However, early April 2016 was quite cold.
  7. Pretty telling and concerning 7 of the top 10 warmest winters are in the last 27 years and 5 in the last 13 alone. Although a few others did not make the top 10 for Detroit, there's several other warm winters or winters with an abnormally warm month in that 27 year span including 1998-99, 1999-00, 2005-06, 2012-13, 2019-20, and 2020-21. Warmth is one statistic and snow is another. I'm more concerned about the warmth and its severity and longevity during the winter season than whether we end up with above average snow. Because if we continue on this trend, we won't see many snow cover days or may struggle with precip issues with every storm. The period between 2007-2015 was the only real cold period filled with snow/cold that we honestly had since the 90's. And many of the 90's winters were shit too.
  8. At this point, anything will be better than this winter's monstrosity. I'd take a repeat of 98-99. Biggest problem for me is that it was a warm winter too and I'm sick of these constant warm winters. But we had that blizzard in January 1999 that dumped 16-20" in Toronto and cued one of the snowiest 2 week periods ever in Toronto for a total of 46" in just 14 days. Kind of similar to Feb 2015 for you guys.
  9. YYZ only goes back to 1938. Here's the top 10 for Toronto going back to 1840. I used Toronto till the mid 1950s and YYZ thereafter because of the continued industrial revolution skewing anomalies. As of now 1931-32 holds the title for us. I guess you could make an argument that those pre 1955 winters if they happened today with all the UHI, they would be a lot warmer. Therefore, for that time, which is considered to be a much cooler time globally, those winters were incredibly warm vs normal. We lucked out in 1965-66 with 27" in January but snowfall outside of January was abysmal. And 1957-58 was shit here too, snow wise. Temperature wise both winters finished slightly above average but not by much. We finished near average for 1972-73 too, primarily thanks to a snowy November and December where 60% of our winter snow fell in those 2 months. I made a post in the other thread about strong Nino's. Every strong/super Nino since 1982-83 has been an absolute blowtorch across North America. Quite the opposite with other notable strong Nino's like 1972-73, 1965-66, and 1957-58. It seems like 1982-83 was the tipping point. Though aside from the temperature anomalies, one thing remains constant. They were all largely snowless for the entire region. We seem to fair much better and snowier with strong La Nina's. Of the majority of YYZ's top 10 snowiest winters, most are strong Nina's. I'd assume it's the same for Detroit.
  10. Where does 2022-23 and 2016-17 stand on the rankings? Locally, 2023-24 was the warmest on record here in Toronto at YYZ. Though records at YYZ only go back to 1938, I'm positive 2023-24 is in the top 5 or top 3 if I looked at all the records that went back to 1840. Of the top 8 warmest on record at YYZ, 5 are since 2015-16 which include 2015-16, 2016-17, 2019-20, 2022-23, and 2023-24. Fucked up lol. I know you make a lot of reference to 2015-16 so I wonder if this is just a hangover from that super Nino on the globe and global oceans or has the warming simply accelerated. The amount of warmth and warm winters we've seen in the last 8 years is absurd. We saw a similar thing with the 1997-98 super Nino. From 1997-2007, we only saw 2 cold winters across the continent (2000-01 and 2002-03) and one near average (2003-04). Although we experienced the multi-year Nina (1998-2001), it may have not been enough to counter the warmth that built up from the 3 strong Nino's vs one strong Nina from 1986-1998. Until the 2007-08 strong La Nina did we enter a period of colder winters from 2007-2015 and only really experienced one warm winter (2011-12). I'm talking about all of North America not locally. I don't think the -PDO is responsible for any of the warmth. The PDO was predominately negative between 2007 and 2015 and we experienced 90% cold winters. You made a post about strong Nino's stepping up global temperatures and I think it maybe partially to blame for the recent increase in warm winters. The 2015-16 super Nino may have greatly impacted ocean temperatures enhancing the +AMO and ultimately the SER which has been on steroids since. It may have also altered the usual -PDO, as even though numbers may say otherwise, only 2020-21, and 2021-22 looked like a full fledged -PDO across the Pacific (like 2007-2015 did). One simple look at the current SST map can tell you that despite the deeply negative anomaly. One can say the same thing about the MEI values hardly cracking moderate status despite a super Nino ONI value last tri-month. Basically we need a 2007-08 or 2010-11 type of La Nina to cool the oceans down. I think.
  11. This winter (DJF) is officially the warmest on record at YYZ with a mean temperature of 32.5 (0.3C) and 0.5 ahead of the previous record holder (2001-02). Other top 6 winters are 2011-12, 2015-16, 2022-23, 1997-98, 2016-17, and 2019-20. 5 of the top 8 have been since 2015-16 which is fucked. @mississaugasnow Either the warming has exponentially accelerated or this is just a result of the 2015-16 super nino hangover on the globe. Hard to say right now but facts are facts. Winters are getting warmer. Only 2013-14 and 2014-15 are the two recent winters to be in the top 12 coldest at YYZ. Everything else is pre 1982. Snow is nothing more than just a byproduct of the existing pattern. It takes just one or two storms or a "snowy" week to change the outcome between a snowless and snowier winter. We saw that perfectly this winter. The warmer oceans maybe playing a role in enhancing storms. But if we continue on this warming trend, at some point, snow will play catch up and we'll have to constantly deal with marginal temperatures and mixing. 1972-73, a key analog some have used for this winter, was considerably colder across the entire continent. And some other notable strong Nino's (1965-66 or 1957-58) were also considerably colder. The 1982-83 super nino changed the game and every strong/super Nino since then has been incredibly warm.
  12. GFS continues to look snowless. Would be remarkable if we go the entire rest of March and April without any winter storm. i don't think there is any winter that went snowless after mid Jan and that too coming off a snowless December. Outside of a weak clipper in mid Feb, it's been incredibly warm and snowless. @mississaugasnow Pretty much unheard of at our latitude.
  13. I do agree we had a nice stretch of cold/snowy winters for a period of time between 2008-2015 and a few others since the start of the century (2000-01, 2002-03, and 2004-05). But the severity of those cold winters don't compare to the severity of warm winters we've experienced since the late 90's and I'm not just talking locally but nationally. 2023-24 is about to be the warmest winter on record across the nation and is on the heels of other recent warm winters like 2022-23, 2019-20, 2016-17, 2015-16, 2011-12, 2005-06, etc. All of these winters are different ENSO types too. Maybe certain locales may not be breaking warm records but in broader context, it is historic given the shear number, longevity, and severity of warm winters. It isn't always about the records but rather the continuing (+) anomalies. If trends continue, at some point, snow will catch up. Can't constantly have marginal snow events as our climo should be and has supported colder snow.
  14. December till mid Jan was cloudy and warm. That changed since late January when the omega block set up and skies cleared up. A nice change from where we started and what we've experienced over the last few years. Warm and cloudy is just ugly.
  15. @mississaugasnow As of yesterday YYZ is at 0.1C for DJF making it the warmest winter on record (since 1938). The final 9 days will likely seal the deal with the impending warm up. Of the top 5 warmest winters on record at YYZ, all 5 have occurred since 2001-02 with 4/5 since 2011-12. And 9 out of the top 10 warmest have occurred since 1998. That's fucked up. You can only ascertain a portion of the warming due to UHI, but the rest of it is climate change. Kind of scary how fast winters are warming. If we continue on this trend, at some point, snow will play catch up. We saw that last winter and 2019-20 with all the marginal snow events, but this winter kind of exposed that more. It's only a matter of time. Hope nature finds its equilibrium and things shift.
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