Jackstraw

From the Meteosat it's looking like the wave train is full steam ahead. There are several strong and a couple weaker ones lined up like a bowling ball return. We'll see how it pans out, but with the activity over equatorial Africa and the incoming Kelvin Wave it could get very very interesting. Seems #10 and the next wave models have are going to have some decent SAL to fight off so we shall watch the battle begin.

I've actually seen some Maples starting to lighten up around here. The conifers on my property are producing large cones a good 2-3 weeks ahead of time. With the cool temps lately and the looks of the tree's would've thought we were into late Sept. not early. As is usual with a departing strong tropical system ridging building in behind it tends to pump our temps. But looks to be fairly short lived with the models pointing to another cool down beyond 5-7 days. I really hope we can experience a "true" fall this year. The falls I remember 40 years ago with comfortable to sometimes warm daytime temps and cool jacket wearing nighttime temps, heralding in high school football season, just haven't materialized in my 7 years back. It's my favorite time of year. Hope we actually have one this year.

Strange but intersting mode around here today. Been on the road most of the day. I've experienced elevated thunderstorms, strong ones, but not as cellular as these. There was one from my location I literally could watch it work it's way down to the surface. I've never visibly seen that, was pretty cool.

I've never been able to tweet embed. True story

Spent about 15 years in Fl. Experienced some good ones. Some I chased some didn't have to. Elena (72 hours of hell), Andrew (West coast still a monster), Katrina (scariest cat 1/2 ever), Ivan (was prepared and actually enjoyed it) to name a few. I'm of the opinion know where you live. Canes come with the territory down there so deal with it and prepare yourself. For most of Fl. it's not that hard to evacuate 20 or 30 miles inland (if you have to go that far) if you live within 5 miles of the coast and then hunker down. If you live in Fl. and your evac plan is Georgia move back up north lol. Pinellas county (St. Pete, Clearwater, Largo area where I lived) is just a disaster waiting to happen however because there's just nowhere to go. Water on 3 sides, an average above sea level of about 15-20 feet, 4 bridges and a highway paralleling the coast north the only way out for about 1 million people to evacuate. It's been like 100 years since that area was slammed with a big dog and it will happen again. IMO that area is a powder keg during cane season.

Need to freeze frame the weather forecast for this week. Freakin awesome

Yup....

91 here 72 in Kokomo, it's coming

Rub it in all of ya still 93/75 here lol

That means I have another day to wait

Oshkosh air show could get a little crazy this morning with pilots trying to beat any weather coming in. If you get hot and bored today you can listen and watch some of the arrivals here....... https://www.liveatc.net/hlisten.php?mount=kosh3 https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-webcams/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=73424B0E16414774A6AF336DECC455B9&_z=z

Didn't say it was set it stone, was pointing out the model runs and its obvious local forecast offices aren't totally buying into it. GFS does have some support from the Euro albiet 1 or 2 degrees cooler. 12Z runs are even cooler after this Sunday and don't have me at 80 until next Sunday. 7 straight days of high 60's warming to high 70's, rain or no rain, with lows in the low 50's warming to low 60's is a bit anomalous for my area in late July. Once again didn't say it was going to happen.

This isn't pretty normal at 6pm for July in my area....

00Z models temp runs over the next 10 days are pretty crazy for July if they are to be believed. Both GFS and EURO has me at 67 at 6pm Mon. possibly hitting 50 early Tues. morning. Except for next Sat, it could be downright chilly with highs of 80 and lows in the high 50's low 60's on average and dew's getting as low as high 40's. Yeah, it's this kind of stuff that makes 95 seem super hot.

Still raining here. Gonna be a sauna when that big shiny thing comes up in a few hours.

I've often thought that points W are less influenced by flow off the gulf and more from "heat island" areas like west TX, NM and AZ. Our big heat does tend to come from the W/SW but geographically it may actually be a bit more moderated by the gulf than points west where the flow spends more time over dry hot arid areas. So guess could say it is lake enhanced by the gulf lol.

Luckily it takes a lot for this area to hit 100 compared to points west. Not quite sure why but when the heats on we tend to run 5 or so degrees cooler around here. Not like it makes that much difference if dews are in the 70's and lows in the mid 70's. I'd still like to wait for the dog days for this stuff to start.

"TWA 517, do you want to report a UFO?" Kidding. There are some hints of a trough in the gulf around that time frame on some of the models so we'll see if that blip pops back up.

Yep got nailed finally. Almost .6 in my gauge. I swear I could see daylight the whole time just off to my SE so really were on the edge. Just N of me really got hammered with some rain.

A little more hope here today with s bit of a CU field building but still looks like the boundary is still just N.

Its been even worse around here. Still barely over .25 in's over the last 3 weeks and we missed out on some of the larger totals a few weeks before that with a 5 week total of around 1.25. Latest Barry forecasts aren't showing as much relief around here as they we're 24 hr's ago. The exposed ground on my property resembles a western dry lake bed. At least no 100's forecast for the near future but day/night low to mid 90's/mid upper 70's with dews running low to mid 70's across the board aren't going to be too pleasant. August coming early maybe October will too lol.

From its performance up around our area I'm wondering if it's atmosphere coupled lol.

Can't buy one around here. Saw that storm off to my south, another off to my west and another to the east. My micro-climate around here is really sucking.

I knew the rubber band of May and June was going to snap and we were going to have to pay the piper

Yeah we're banging 94/72 here and beginning to get brutally dry, little more than .25 of rain since 6/23. Temps supposed to drop below 60 tomorrow night, might need a scarf lol.