Jackstraw

Yeah that 00Z HRRR run was kinda nuts with a squeaker band that far south late tomorrow night early Wed. Got a little support from the other convective models. I get nervous seeing a couple inches of flakes fly even to my NW, this early. This pattern has been locked in for awhile. Like Stebo said hope it holds for another 6 weeks anyway, could get an early Dec. ball buster.

3k NAM looks to be taking the warm lake water into consideration

Was so busy didnt see this coming, or just wasn't paying attention. Power just coming on this morning after going out late last night. After the day long down pour the wind really kicked in and there were several transformers popping around here. Green skies at night.

Talk about wam bam thank ya mam

I got nothing to cover after September lol. Still have some peppers in the garden but a light frost tends to pull the sugars into them so I'm for it. Might get some some sweet hots of the bush's this year, it's been awhile. I can honestly say this is going to be the first weekend that it truly feels like Fall in a long time. The extended seems to keep it coming. I'm all in if we can keep it going to turkey day. I swear, there has not been a Fall of my youth since I moved back 7 years ago. might get some sweet hots off the vine this year been awhile. It'll be patchy if it happens

Finally, a chilly light rain the last couple hours. Was going to flip out if we drop 40 degrees in 12 hours and get nothing.

Pretty amazing, have had 30-35 dbz returns overhead and hardly a drop. Watched that entire mass of precip just get eaten away as it moved NE of Indy.

Looks like we could have our first frost of the season tonight

I can't remember seeing so many suspect areas/formations/storms at or above 30N as this year.

Well the extended looks like... wait for it... FALL! About freaking time we had one.

Cant even squeeze a tenth out of this front.

I'd take filthy 4th's around here. Beginning to wonder if camels could be a good investment.

Great sat. image depicting the strong SE ridging in place. The cumulus streaks over IL/IN almost look like isobar line lol.

Didn't even get a 10th here. Soybean fields around here are crazy. Crops that are in the lowest parts of the field are full green and growing, The others are so brown and dry they're ready for harvest, not to mention they're less than a foot tall. You can see it field after field. During a wetter period the ones that are doing good would be stunted and visa versa. Corn crop is very noticeably short and stunted. My yard was wet at 5:30 this morning when I got home it was bone dry again. Tree's taking it hard too, the early turners are going straight to brown.

This is getting ridiculous. The N part of this front is falling apart as it comes through this area. This is like the 3rd one over the last 3 weeks where the precip went N and S of here.

Hoping we get something tonight. It's parched around here. Any exposed bare ground looks like a dried lake bed. No measurable precip locally for almost the entire month.

My micro climate around here haven't recorded but a few drops of precip, less than .05 except for dew in the mornings, in almost 3 weeks.

From the Meteosat it's looking like the wave train is full steam ahead. There are several strong and a couple weaker ones lined up like a bowling ball return. We'll see how it pans out, but with the activity over equatorial Africa and the incoming Kelvin Wave it could get very very interesting. Seems #10 and the next wave models have are going to have some decent SAL to fight off so we shall watch the battle begin.

I've actually seen some Maples starting to lighten up around here. The conifers on my property are producing large cones a good 2-3 weeks ahead of time. With the cool temps lately and the looks of the tree's would've thought we were into late Sept. not early. As is usual with a departing strong tropical system ridging building in behind it tends to pump our temps. But looks to be fairly short lived with the models pointing to another cool down beyond 5-7 days. I really hope we can experience a "true" fall this year. The falls I remember 40 years ago with comfortable to sometimes warm daytime temps and cool jacket wearing nighttime temps, heralding in high school football season, just haven't materialized in my 7 years back. It's my favorite time of year. Hope we actually have one this year.

I've never been able to tweet embed. True story

Spent about 15 years in Fl. Experienced some good ones. Some I chased some didn't have to. Elena (72 hours of hell), Andrew (West coast still a monster), Katrina (scariest cat 1/2 ever), Ivan (was prepared and actually enjoyed it) to name a few. I'm of the opinion know where you live. Canes come with the territory down there so deal with it and prepare yourself. For most of Fl. it's not that hard to evacuate 20 or 30 miles inland (if you have to go that far) if you live within 5 miles of the coast and then hunker down. If you live in Fl. and your evac plan is Georgia move back up north lol. Pinellas county (St. Pete, Clearwater, Largo area where I lived) is just a disaster waiting to happen however because there's just nowhere to go. Water on 3 sides, an average above sea level of about 15-20 feet, 4 bridges and a highway paralleling the coast north the only way out for about 1 million people to evacuate. It's been like 100 years since that area was slammed with a big dog and it will happen again. IMO that area is a powder keg during cane season.

Still raining here. Gonna be a sauna when that big shiny thing comes up in a few hours.

"TWA 517, do you want to report a UFO?" Kidding. There are some hints of a trough in the gulf around that time frame on some of the models so we'll see if that blip pops back up.

From its performance up around our area I'm wondering if it's atmosphere coupled lol.

Well at least an officer on the side of the road wont have trouble reading it lol. That's crazy. Never seen "plate" damage before.