frostfern

Ratio of “thunderstorm chances” in the forecast to anything of note actually happening has been abysmal for a long time now here. Desperately need a Wisconsin MCS charging across the lake. Any time now. This afternoon popup garbage avoids GRR every single time. Trash climatology getting worse.

This summer reminding me of 2018. Consistently above average temps but no extraordinary heat, no good cold fronts, lake shadow, little rain.

The northern edge of that 90 degree heat bubble could get interesting.

CAD summer.

So boring…

The ratio of actual thunder vs thunder in the forecast has been low lately over here.

Yea. I meant in the brief periods the heat gets east of the Rockies, it doesn't really reach the Great Lakes. This year the upper Midwest has been persistently troughy and it looks to return to that pattern over the next week. I like this somewhat active pattern better than having a trough over New England that puts the GL in a boring "cool drought", but it seems hot and active summers are a thing of the past.

Have to wait. There’s still a lot of CIN, but maybe the nocturnal low level jet breaks it. I’m guessing mostly garden variety, but with isolated hail or spinups possible given the shear. Don’t need a derecho IMBY.

Miss south for Michigan unless the bookend peels north. Meh.

Nudged enough N to get me excited.

I got about 2" last night IMBY. For once I-94 got the screw-zone instead of I-96.

The real ridge sticks to the plains most of the time the last decade or so it seems. At least in July and August.

Fairly impressive local rainfall in GRR with this MCV. “warm advection wing” band of convection has been parked overhead for a while now.

It's destabilizing pretty good behind the MCS wake over WI extending now over Lake MI.

The best lightning was with the small cluster ahead of the bow. There were quite a few positive CGs estimating about 2 miles to my SW. The big shelf that rolled in from the NW didn’t have much other than soft IC rumble and moderate rain. It wasn’t surface based. I see the winds did penetrate to the surface some areas though.