frostfern

I want it to be real, but it does look exactly like another video where the ball was generated by a pair of power lines. I can’t really see any poles though.

What about the Great Lakes? A mean trough is usually no good around here if it’s just progressive cold fronts scouring moisture out. Need a fully stalled cut-off to plant itself over Minnesota or Wisconsin and pump the 70 degree dewpoints into here. Last time that happened was June 2021.

I think the biggest reason those records are so hard to beat is the increased humidity. Modern agriculture with irrigation systems and a warmer GOM makes drought-driven heatwaves unlikely. July 1995 showed you don’t always need low relative humidity to break records, but that was a much shorter event driven by an unusual synoptic pattern that was ultimately transient. To get long-duration heat waves like the 1930s you need low RH.

The north-to-south temperature gradient has been too baggy. Southern Canada warm, no big heat south. Thus no jet dynamics to force convection and keep it going through the night. We’ve had enough storm damage this year on this side of the state from the March 30 and May 15 events alone. I’m not begging for a derecho here, but it seems without a better setup it’s hard to get even garden variety rains.

It’s even worse closer to the lake. I at least got a couple .25” in 10 minutes type showers the past couple weeks just east of GRR. It’s been hot enough we lose that much to evaporation every day though.

Ratio of “thunderstorm chances” in the forecast to anything of note actually happening has been abysmal for a long time now here. Desperately need a Wisconsin MCS charging across the lake. Any time now. This afternoon popup garbage avoids GRR every single time. Trash climatology getting worse.

This summer reminding me of 2018. Consistently above average temps but no extraordinary heat, no good cold fronts, lake shadow, little rain.

The northern edge of that 90 degree heat bubble could get interesting.

CAD summer.

So boring…

The ratio of actual thunder vs thunder in the forecast has been low lately over here.

Yea. I meant in the brief periods the heat gets east of the Rockies, it doesn't really reach the Great Lakes. This year the upper Midwest has been persistently troughy and it looks to return to that pattern over the next week. I like this somewhat active pattern better than having a trough over New England that puts the GL in a boring "cool drought", but it seems hot and active summers are a thing of the past.

Have to wait. There’s still a lot of CIN, but maybe the nocturnal low level jet breaks it. I’m guessing mostly garden variety, but with isolated hail or spinups possible given the shear. Don’t need a derecho IMBY.

Miss south for Michigan unless the bookend peels north. Meh.

Nudged enough N to get me excited.