frostfern

Michigan moderate risk fail. Happy no power outages, but a big letdown. Not even any good lighting or rain.

The orientation isn't good for the derecho the CAMS were showing. zzzz....

It seems rare to get such widespread big totals in a midsummer month in Michigan. Usually it's just an isolated streak where a training event occurred. Widespread wetness seems much more likely in September, because that's when tropical systems are often involved.

I hope not. I was vaccinated in May. It seems like the low 70s dewpoints combined with wet ground and breezy conditions is doing it. The flowers are intense, but I also catch a whiff of swampy smell.

Anyone else notice how the air is unusually fragrant lately with all the humidity and rain? Both good smells and bad smells are really strong.

Where is my warm sector? Will be bummed if all this rain falls as boring stratiform shit.

Kalamazoo will probably have flooding if the current models play out, which is crazy considering how dry it was there only a little over a week ago.

It takes a few days. You probably see greening first happening in low areas where the water could pond. Sloping areas where the water ran off quickly are likely to stay brown. Same for places with little shade near hot pavement. Those are always the last to come back. That's the problem with downpours on top of dry soil. A bunch of the water runs off high areas before it has a chance to get deep into the soil. Gentle rains over several hours irrigate much more evenly.

Overlying month-to-date precip on the drought map as of June 17, the biggest screw zones are north central Iowa, most of Minnesota, NW part of Lower Michigan as well as the Thumb area. At least the holes in Illinois and Indiana had rain earlier in the spring.

Here's the cell in I was looking at in Berrien county at 12:31 am. Definite hook and small couplet. One pixel is in the 65 mph range, away from KIWX. I don't know if this was ever confirmed as a tornado. If anything touched down it was extremely brief. The scud was ominously low to the ground but it was hard to tell if what I was looking at was the actual center of rotation, or if it was farther back. The scud I saw might have just been outflow from the cell farther west being lifted. The merging of the two cells disrupted whatever was trying to form at this moment. There was definitely decent rotation low to the ground right at that moment though. The internet will probably think the picture is a tornado, but it isn't really a funnel so I can't honestly claim I actually saw anything. The lightning wasn't frequent enough to pick up motion and it was too blinding. It can actually see it better on my camera than I could in person.

Yes. It was beneficial rain, just not a drought buster. It's annoying when you just miss the 2"+ totals twice. Kalamazoo is actually soggy now and doesn't need any more rain in the short term.

Found an even better frame of the nocturnal mothership near Eau Claire, Michigan. This cell got absorbed into the QLCS a little later. It was only a severe warning when I last looked. Don't know if it had a tornado warning at this point. The scud looked pretty ominous here but it's hard to gauge actual rotation at night.

Maybe some graupel showers with thunder to the north tomorrow. October climo in June.

LOL. Yes... really. Need to start a thread for June frost accumulations.

I hope it can come a little farther north next time. Stratiform fringe stuff helps some, but the real downpours keep missing south.