frostfern

Michigan moderate risk fail. Happy no power outages, but a big letdown. Not even any good lighting or rain.

The orientation isn't good for the derecho the CAMS were showing. zzzz....

It seems rare to get such widespread big totals in a midsummer month in Michigan. Usually it's just an isolated streak where a training event occurred. Widespread wetness seems much more likely in September, because that's when tropical systems are often involved.

I hope not. I was vaccinated in May. It seems like the low 70s dewpoints combined with wet ground and breezy conditions is doing it. The flowers are intense, but I also catch a whiff of swampy smell.

Anyone else notice how the air is unusually fragrant lately with all the humidity and rain? Both good smells and bad smells are really strong.

Where is my warm sector? Will be bummed if all this rain falls as boring stratiform shit.

Kalamazoo will probably have flooding if the current models play out, which is crazy considering how dry it was there only a little over a week ago.

It takes a few days. You probably see greening first happening in low areas where the water could pond. Sloping areas where the water ran off quickly are likely to stay brown. Same for places with little shade near hot pavement. Those are always the last to come back. That's the problem with downpours on top of dry soil. A bunch of the water runs off high areas before it has a chance to get deep into the soil. Gentle rains over several hours irrigate much more evenly.

Overlying month-to-date precip on the drought map as of June 17, the biggest screw zones are north central Iowa, most of Minnesota, NW part of Lower Michigan as well as the Thumb area. At least the holes in Illinois and Indiana had rain earlier in the spring.

Here's the cell in I was looking at in Berrien county at 12:31 am. Definite hook and small couplet. One pixel is in the 65 mph range, away from KIWX. I don't know if this was ever confirmed as a tornado. If anything touched down it was extremely brief. The scud was ominously low to the ground but it was hard to tell if what I was looking at was the actual center of rotation, or if it was farther back. The scud I saw might have just been outflow from the cell farther west being lifted. The merging of the two cells disrupted whatever was trying to form at this moment. There was definitely decent rotation low to the ground right at that moment though. The internet will probably think the picture is a tornado, but it isn't really a funnel so I can't honestly claim I actually saw anything. The lightning wasn't frequent enough to pick up motion and it was too blinding. It can actually see it better on my camera than I could in person.

Yes. It was beneficial rain, just not a drought buster. It's annoying when you just miss the 2"+ totals twice. Kalamazoo is actually soggy now and doesn't need any more rain in the short term.

Found an even better frame of the nocturnal mothership near Eau Claire, Michigan. This cell got absorbed into the QLCS a little later. It was only a severe warning when I last looked. Don't know if it had a tornado warning at this point. The scud looked pretty ominous here but it's hard to gauge actual rotation at night.

Maybe some graupel showers with thunder to the north tomorrow. October climo in June.

LOL. Yes... really. Need to start a thread for June frost accumulations.

I hope it can come a little farther north next time. Stratiform fringe stuff helps some, but the real downpours keep missing south.

Here's a scuddy wall cloud with circular striations above. This was near Eau Claire, Michigan, just northeast of Berrien Springs. Not the best quality photo, but the best I could get at night. It's a frame extracted from video during a lightning flash. I just didn't have enough time to mess with setting up the tripod. It would have been a cool timelapse.

Remind me again of why I don't use facebook except to message friends and family.

Is he trying to be the Logan Paul of online weather geeks?

Yea. It was horrible for chasing. The evening stuff along I-30 in Indiana was a bunch of "pulse" supercells that were quickly collapsing in wet downbursts 20 minutes later, and also moving really fast. Not to mention the roads are terrible these days. If it wasn't lane closure induced traffic backups on the freeway, it was potholes on the country roads. Also ran into some roads that were just outright closed with no signed detour to follow. Lots of exits closed for construction too. It was pretty maddening. The one cell I had a nice view of out ahead of the QLCS had some cool structure if only it had not been during the night in an area with trees everywhere. I saw some good CGs though, some absolute bombs on camera. That alone made it worth it given how little lightning there has been this year IMBY so far.

I drove home right through the second QLCS. I had to slow down to 30 mph at one point on I-96 as I could only see about 50 feet in front of me and was scared of hydroplaning. I was so busy driving didn’t even see the tornado warnings. Just before that I was watching a scuddy supercell base out ahead of the line somewhere near Niles.

Yea. Im thinking the southerlies ahead of the MCV overriding the cold pool over southern lake michigan could trigger elevated convection that becomes surface based as it moves east.

Its plenty hot here in Niles even with clouds. No lack of instability. Its just a stubborn cap or something. Lack of cumulus.

Im waiting near Niles. Hoping activity perks up over the south end of Lake Michigan.

Hope there will be supercell potential ahead of the fast crapvection blob in SE Michigan. Its too early for Illinois and round 2 will probably be too late in the day and too far SW to be worth chasing for me.

The tail end of the complex in northern Indiana has good rotation.