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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. The weird thing about the '13/'14 winter here was there was only one double digit event in a 24 hour period. There was a lake-enhanced clipper that dumped 11" in a 24 hour period. The rest was all 2-5" per day for several days in a row style events, due to good synoptic+lake effect combos. The thing is it started in December and lasted into March. There were a few brief rainy thaws, but when it was cold it was almost always snowing. Starting in early February with little to zero snow pack it will take several blizzards to even get close.
  2. 2014 was nothing like this year though. That cold was accompanied by frequent snow. It wasn't this CAD garbage. It will take a ton of catching up to get the snowpack anywhere close. Would need several GHD style blizzards.
  3. It's more than a slight warm up. Gulf is wide open. People who don't already have some snowpack don't care, but living where I do I'm more of a snowpack weenie, so thaws are upsetting. Maybe it will be ice. I'd rather not do that actually.
  4. Don't need a SSW to have a cold spring. It's really a winter only phenomenon. The stratosphere is always warming after March because the sun is out again over the north pole. SST patterns are way more important by then.
  5. I like the 24th system on the GFS for Michigan. Would be even better if it actually phased. It's hard to trust anything in a split-stream pattern though. It will just keep changing with every run until within 12 hours.
  6. I think it was 0.01" of "snow grains" combined with drizzle here. The garbage that falls from the most uniformly bland and dreary shallow low gray stratus deck.
  7. Warm sector high wind boosting temperatures into the 60s at night like in December?
  8. I really hate days like today. The annoying mix of snow grains and freezing drizzle was enough to cause multiple accidents delaying the commute time horribly. Yet precipitation amounts are so meager there's nothing to show in terms of any additional white on the ground. Don't know why the storm track is so far north despite not being a particularly warm pattern. Always get this cloudy "unsaturated DGZ" garbage in the "warm" sector of clippers. I'm ready for sunny arctic airmass after this depressing crap. An actual synoptic snowfall would be nice at some point.
  9. 13" max depth IMBY from combo of lake effect events last week has already shrunk down to 3.5". Probably less than half actually melted. It settled to 7" even before it got above freezing. It was mostly air.
  10. It should get there eventually. Probably Niles will be hit harder, but a good dominant band can carry inland a bit more even with winds slacking off. The sun just came out here briefly. Flakes totally stopped.
  11. This band is full of mesovortices.
  12. Other than this lake effect the synoptic pattern has been garbage lately. Unless you happen to like the warm sector gales in December.
  13. I think GRR is going to pass 14" for the storm total. The back edge is only a few miles to the north and creeping closer, but this current band is putting out a grand finale as it exits. 1-2" per hour rates. Big dendrites. Super high ratios.
  14. We had a couple weeks of decent snowpack last year in early February, but none of the events were bullseyes. It was all 4" events on the fringe of a 10"+ events missing south and east. They just added up because it was cold and didn't melt. Couldn't complain after a lousy December and January. Haven't had a LES event this good since 2014. 2014 was too good to be true though. It was like the late 1970s came back briefly.
  15. Standard non-met weenie map trying to please everyone. Many nor'easters spells CAD west of Ohio Valley.
  16. I wouldn't be surprised if any areas that manage to got clobbered in both the SW flow event yesterday and NW flow event today/tonight rack up some impressive 2 day totals. This is the best lake effect event in a LONG time here.
  17. Closing in on a foot of depth and still ripping here in GRR. Feels good to be able to stop in and flex after such a long stretch of boring weather and covid hell.
  18. Michigan moderate risk fail. Happy no power outages, but a big letdown. Not even any good lighting or rain.
  19. The orientation isn't good for the derecho the CAMS were showing. zzzz....
  20. It seems rare to get such widespread big totals in a midsummer month in Michigan. Usually it's just an isolated streak where a training event occurred. Widespread wetness seems much more likely in September, because that's when tropical systems are often involved.
  21. I hope not. I was vaccinated in May. It seems like the low 70s dewpoints combined with wet ground and breezy conditions is doing it. The flowers are intense, but I also catch a whiff of swampy smell.
  22. Anyone else notice how the air is unusually fragrant lately with all the humidity and rain? Both good smells and bad smells are really strong.
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