frostfern

Last night’s plume came from the Mississippi Valley swamps and Illinois / Indiana corn fields. Briefly hit upper 70s this morning but the ground is so dry it’s mixed down to the lower 70s now IMBY. Also already over 90 before noon is impressive.

The current squall line over Northern Lower is more impressive than expected. The southern outflow boundary might act to really concentrate the steam flowing up from Illinois. I don’t see those dewpoints mixing out so easily this time.

You must have good soil. I don’t water my grass and it’s 90% brown. I am watering the two young trees I have in front so I have some green surrounding them.

Similar here. 0.2” of mostly light rain. The heavier rains hit downtown and areas northwest but missed the east side. Interestingly there was a weak tornado in Allendale and that area and north got a needed soaking as well.

Got two rotating cells here in W Michigan. Ottowa County now severe warned. Newaygo not warned yet.

Some garden variety drought relief incoming. There is a screw-gap between two more solid MCS areas though. Best rains probably missing a few miles north and west of MBY, but at least they need rain too.

I got .33” from early day shower, but it came so fast most of it ran into the storm drains without soaking in. After that it was a few drops, then some rumbles off to the east as the line reformed. There was 1500 j/kg CAPE over the lake (as opposed to 2500 j/kg inland), but it seems lower apparent temperature / higher density over the lake can slow down storm outflow to the point unstable parcels are no longer being lifted enough to reach free convection. That and the line was way out ahead of the MCV / low which the CAMs got wrong somehow.

GRR In addition, at the MCV rotates east into Michigan we will see our deep layer shear increase. Moisture (surface dew points in the 70s), instability (MUCAPE of 2,000-3,000 j/kg) and lift via the MCV along with shear will all be in place this evening. We agree with the slight risk area via SPC given the parameter space this evening. The HREF 4 hour reflectivity max tells the story quite well, in that our diurnal convection will fade into the evening and the focus will shift to the incoming line. The lake is quite warm and we do not expect a decrease in intensity as the lake may actually give the convection as boost. The lift via the MCV will help storms as well. So, bottom line...expecting a line of storms this evening with wind being the main threat. An isolated tornado like what has happened already this afternoon in Wisconsin is certainly possible later this evening in a QLCS mode in areas where flow backs to the southeast or east ahead of the line. Showers and storms sweep out of the CWA by 2am-3am. HREF was wrong. The lake always seems to kill storms during peak heating hours.

Got screwed again with the rain. Line falls apart over the lake then redevelops east of me. I’ve never seen the lake shadow lock in this hard all summer long.

Shear and good forcing beats CAPE every time.

Really sad if 3000 j/kg goes completely to waste here.

Got lucky with one small but very precip efficient lake breeze shower. 0.3” and counting in 8 minutes. If only it could last an hour or more.

Imagine it could snow with mid-70s dewpoints.

Initiation is farther east, but the wave itself is taking a more northerly track. There is more juice to work with this time with a more extensive pool of mid-70s dewpoints. Severe seems pretty iffy, but maybe a broken tail or secondary MCV at least gives rain farther south. Prayers.

Popups east of 131. WI complex shits the bed over the lake. More popups east of 131. Then it’s all whiffing south along I-80. Maybe I-94 gets some stratiform scraps. I-96 west of 131 desert.

The localized drought feedback is real here. Only spot where dewpoints have mixed down into the mid 50s despite a SSW wind.

Bullshit again.

Please bring those “relentless rains” to me. Wash this horrible smoke out of the air and turn things green again.

I had my bedroom window open last night and woke up hacking. I get more sensitive to this crap as I get older.

Not even scraps make it here, but of course just enough outflow debris to prevent any action this afternoon.

It will probably survive over the lake then croak and dry out right as it comes onshore. I hope to get some WAA popcorn out ahead. Thoughts and prayers.

I don’t really see anything resembling a tornadic couplet with that warning. GRR office also preemptively tor warned a small bowing segment on May 15. I guess the risk for spinups is high.

Nice comma head MCV. Do CAMs show it? Is it headed for MBY? Lase time I saw CAM output it was whiffing north and dying.

They’re going by instability alone and expecting upscale growth to drive a squall line east I guess. There’s not much westerly shear component to support it. Definitely not way after dark. If not a squall line, maybe they anticipate isolated supercells along the warm front into the night. Nowhere near widespread enough to warrant an enhanced risk towards Chicago though.

All I can hope for is wetter soil upstream so dewpoints get higher. Tiny baby steps. It’s getting real tiring relying on scattered convection maybe popping up overhead. Don’t know when if ever a mature MCS survives up here.