frostfern

Possible up your way. The next system looks to immediately melt it all here. Kind of useless this time of year. I’ll take it now if April can flip back to warm / thunder.

That's weird because I've had the opposite experience a few years ago. I thought maybe they went off again because another warning was issued for areas farther east and I just happened to be in the overlap (though the event, which was ruled a localized straight line wind event, actually missed me by about 5 miles). Turning them on to indicate the risk is over would make absolutely no sense to me though. I figured it had to do with overlapping warnings issued in succession.

Wow. Glad you're okay. Hail damage sounds bad. The 2-3 times I've heard the sirens they went off after the storm had passed and all the risk was over. Not always much you can do with brief spin-ups, but the warning was issued like 8 minutes after the first CC drop scan with that one tornado last August, which was pretty bad.

Anyone from Battle Creek up and have internet connection?

It's hard to tell how strong it is. It's far from the radar and I can't distinguish side lobe artifacts from actual wind speeds. I don't see a huge CC drop, but its not so close to the radar.

I really should not have dismissed the possibility of tornadoes at night. Rotation headed straight for Battle Creek is nasty.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1201 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Calhoun County in south central Michigan... * Until 100 AM EST. * At 1201 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Galesburg, or 9 miles southwest of Battle Creek, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Battle Creek, Springfield, and Level Park-Oak Park around 1205 AM EST. Brownlee Park around 1210 AM EST. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Marshall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 4242 8530 4242 8472 4225 8472 4217 8529 TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 254DEG 32KT 4226 8540 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ NJJ

Okay. At this time of year in the eastern regions of the US high based storms are usually also elevated and non-severe. So yea, in this context what you said makes sense. It just seemed like an overgeneralization to say "high base" means non-severe, so I responded. No need to nitpick anymore. We both get it.

I remember March 31 didn't have super high dewpoints. Only low 60s at best. Low LCLs AND good instability still happened because it was cold aloft. Same here. The warm sector was a little broader and deep layer shear was stronger though. That seems like the only thing off. The best shear arrives after dark.

I noticed that too. Significant dryline with actual warmth behind it in February is wild.

Anyone else notice the super sharp dryline forming over Missouri and Illinois? I don't think I've ever seen a dryline like that so far north and east.

Sorry for being pedantic. I think you know what you’re talking about but you aren’t using the correct terminology.

Elevated and high based don’t mean the same thing. You can have either one and not the other. Out west you often have high based storms that are still rooted in the boundary layer, because the boundary layer is extremely deep. Storms that move over Lake Michigan are almost always elevated, technically, in the spring and summer because surfaces based parcels are rarely unstable, but the cloud base is often way lower than what you’d see in Colorado, New Mexico, or Arizona. Neither elevated or high based is ideal for tornadoes, but other types of severe weather are not uncommon at all. High based storms over a deep boundary layer are notorious for causing downbursts because the negative buoyancy for downdrafts is extreme. It happens out west all the time. Last spring an elevated supercell a few miles from where I live produced tennis ball sized hail with a surface temperature in the low 50s.

That’s not really true. High based storms can be extremely severe. It’s only really an issue for tornadoes.

With a strong due south wind the lakes can actually help convergence, except for directly over the lake. I think the problem is more the timing. The cap doesn’t really break until after dark. Not that tornadoes can’t happen after dark, and all the other hazards will be there. If the cap breaks early anywhere though, watch out…

Its not like a summer-like cap bust. More just all the convection being north of the surface boundary, or moving north before it has a chance to produce. These things are always so fickle this far north with the moisture strung out. The CAPE is wild for February though.

Is anyone planning on chasing? There is a cap bust risk with this kind of setup.

Its pothole season. I narrowly avoided a pretty deep one today. I hate how Michigan roads are so fragile. Is it like this everywhere?

PNW heat can be muggy, but it’s never “tropical”. Evapotranspiration from all the conifer forests can push the dewpoint up to the low 60s, but I don’t think it ever reaches 70. Triple digits usually happen when the wind blows downhill from the Cascades, and from that direction it dries out some. When it gets muggy (60 degree dewpoints) it’s typically much weaker offshore flow with temperatures in the upper 80s vs near 100. When it really torches the airmass comes from the east side of the Cascades, and then the dewpoint falls into the low 50s.

Yea. Lake Michigan definitely takes the edge off a bit in both winter and summer. Still distinct seasons, but 100F and -20F are more rare here compared to Northern Illinois. You don’t have to travel far to see those more extreme readings though. The interior north gets a lot colder and Chicago gets a lot hotter.

I don’t think interior BC gets 80 degree dewpoints though. I have experienced some PNW heatwaves, and they can be very hot and also humid enough to be uncomfortable, but you never get that steamy tropical feel. It also seems like the most extreme temperatures happen in localized downslope areas. I noticed Olympia Washington hit 110 while Seattle only got to 101. It has something to do with the terrain. There are plenty of extreme places on earth, especially when you consider micro-climates, but the combo of tropical summers and brutal cold winters seems kinda unique to the Midwest US IMO.

Most other places in the world that experience extreme seasonal variation are more arid. The upper Mississippi Valley is kind of unique in how tropical it can get in the summer while still having very harsh winters. I think the only other place similar is the northeastern part of China. I think China is a bit more mountainous though and mountains will shelter some areas. There is no real mountain range anywhere separating the arctic and Siberia from the Midwest US. Same for humidity from the Gulf / Caribbean.

The temperature in GRR has been a bit below what forecast grids have been indicating for the past 24 hours. It was below zero for quite some time last night and earlier this morning. There’s been a pretty sharp gradient through here.

Its crazy to me that the same place that has triple digit hear and 80 degree dewpoints in July and August is this cold in the winter.