frostfern
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Everything posted by frostfern
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Little tornado near Bristol Indiana. CC drop.
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When the line over Lake Michigan catches up to the stuff out ahead, there should be a big general wind bag event. My prediction.
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Cass County has a tornado warning now. Somewhat of an embedded HP supercell in the line.
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Something tightening up in Cass County MI now. Far SW Michigan still not out of the woods.
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Don’t even have a severe yet. The fuel source is a bit elevated for tornadoes near 1-96, but we have a warm boundary layer this side of the lake, so the initial gusts could get crazy as the bow / comma pushes inland. The bottom thee rows definitely need the tornado watch as that area has decent surface based instability.
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I don’t know, but the SW corner of Michigan might still be in play for a couple tornadoes. Higher dewpoints have finally surged north. Maybe the dying crapvection boosted the moisture but 2000 j/kg should be enough if it maintains.
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I wonder if the cell merger well help steer it right at Kankakee, yet again. The track is so similar to the one in March. It’s isolated enough to produce multiple times.
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That’s a nasty debris ball.
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I just live here. I do have a met degree and used to storm chase a bit. I don’t pay for model data as much as others here, so I’m mostly in the same boat as you. I just have good weather intuition, usually. The mesoscale charts on the SPC page I find the most useful during severe weather. I know Michigan well because I grew up here.
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No. I thought about it once. I’m disabled though.
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Just thin translucent cirrus up here. There is some downdraft CAPE on this side of the lake as opposed to Wisconsin, so there could still be an evening squall with the strong low level jet mixing down in spots. It’s just the convection itself looks to be elevated and unorganized.
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Yea. It looks like heavy rain chances are actually going up. Along and south of I-80 is where the sups will be though.
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For you, yea. I’m 100% out of the game now. Reverse jinxing doesn’t work here. I was never buying the fantasy CAM hype.
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So that elevated blob over Iowa now is what was supposed to be developing into a line of supercells and eventual deracho this evening on yesterdays fantasy CAMs? The lead MCV does seem to be slowing down and running out of steam. Temperatures are decent on this side of the lake. Dewpoints are just meh compared to yeasterday though. I just want some good beneficial rain. Hope I don’t get screwed out of that somehow.
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Overnight crapvection shunted the real instability south as usual. Maybe 1-94 but I’m hosed up here. Michigan.
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Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening. The caveat is it’s Michigan. The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence. It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer. Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep. But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.
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Do the CAMS have the complex developing from the current severe outbreak over N Missouri? If that complex stays far enough south and weakens there should be a return flow behind it. If it expands north overnight and rains all over the place instability will be trashed.
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Dry gust front hopped over MBY then cells filled in to the east while original line fell apart. Rain screwed.
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In have a feeling this line is going to do the GRR split thing that always happens.
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The rotational couplet is slamming the south side of the city. Too broad to be tornadic, but definitely local enhancement to the wind wrapping around.
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Some rotation moving into Chicago. An inflow notch is visible.
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The tops are over 50k, so it is healthy.
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I’d expect it to briefly intensify as it gets closer to the lake, then gust out over the water. The low level shear is not so great here in Michigan, but the CAPE will still be there for some pulses to be strong.
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The SPC has all of western MI under the gun tomorrow evening, but the CAMs are split on how much late night crapvection interferes with returning instability. None of the CAMs are exact on convective placement now so it’s up in the air. Hope I at least get a nice storm this evening if tomorrow turns out to be miss south stank.
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Similar here. I got hit with the narrower part of the line so it didn’t last long. That’s my only complaint. It didn’t rain much. The line got a lot beefier as it moved to the eastern parts of the state.
