frostfern

It will fill in once it gets east of me. Watch.

I just hope there is a round 2 on the back side.

I’m catching a whiff of burnt plastic smoke this evening. Ugh.

If there is a late-morning MCS, it could already be severe, but it will be over once it passes. Then the only supercell/tornado threat will be later in the evening where the southern edge of the outflow ends up. If there is no late morning MCS, afternoon cells could form right on the lake breeze. That scenario would be more interesting.

I would take several years of no t-storms IMBY just to see that one event though. I've never even seen a tornado in person (if you don't count waterspouts). I have seen some decent supercells with large hail while chasing in MI, but never saw more than scuddy wall clouds.

The latest models look farther north. Still so hard to predict where something will develop upstream.

Its just 2 chances that will probably be mostly south of me, then back to the forever trough.

I-94 south year.

If it starts looking anything like 6-13 last year I might drive south to watch. It looks really juicy, which can lead to a good light show.

Still waiting for one electrically active storm this summer up here. SE side has done better.

Spoke too soon. Feeling yet another miss south.

Finally a flat-topped ridge pattern with stalled warm front potential north of I-80.

Yea. It’s hard to know the exact cause. I notice in Michigan just 300 feet of elevation will favor one area over another, but those microclimate effects are not as noticeable during organized severe outbreaks as they are with garden variety stuff.

Lake Huron shadow. But you deserve a weenie tag from Texas Man for complaining about climatology.

Its gone now. No idea if it was actually anything.

Something trying to form. No warning yet though.

Looking ominous.

Flint area going to get crushed with straight line winds and supercell mergers.

Getting that supercell look.

That notch looks interesting.

I think the best chance of rotation is when the line interacts with any lake breezes later in the afternoon. Problem is the the low level wind is strong so it would probably be over the water. Otherwise the 0-3 km is kinda unidirectional. Thats the only problem though. CAPE and overall shear are impressive.

Getting the old skip over again.

There was a 5 minute torrential downpour with a few pea-sized pingers mixed in around 2am last night. Not much in the way of CG lightning though. Just a few flashes and soft rumbles.

How about we lock you outside with no access to AC or heating for a few days and see which is more survivable. I'll pick 40 every single time if it's not wet. Wetness complicates the situation slightly as choosing between hypothermia and dehydration / heat stroke is a tough one, but you can at least dress for cold and wet. My honest criteria is more complicated. The worst is really anything between 32 and 50. If it were up to me I'd skip the months with average temperatures in that range. I'll maybe appreciate a sunny day in the upper 40s in late February or early March if the snow is all melted anyways.