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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    I really think it will hold together or even build more south. It’s only 9:30 PM. These things typically die off in the early morning hours, and it will teach you before then.
  2. frostfern
    I no longer have the energy to chase at night after dark. If I had someone else cover some of the driving it might be doable. Just too exhaused these days. I really just want a nice big loud cracking and thumping storm IMBY, not wind and tornadoes. There’s an occasional flash and rumble, but nothing frequent. Same as previous July storms IMBY this year. Mostly just heavy rainers.
  3. frostfern
    There’s no way that line is going to miss you and it will have lightning. I would chase if it wasn’t so late. Drought is past over up here but really no light show at all. Just plain hard rain.
  4. frostfern
    Surface based instability isn’t as important as 0-1km shear for IMO. As long as SBCAPE isn’t zero, slightly elevated instability just north of a weak boundary is enough. Lots of sun and deep mixing directly overhead creates more CAPE, but it makes the 0-1 km shear more unidirectional too.
  5. frostfern
    Another stratiform snooze fest with next to no lightning.
  6. frostfern
    That story never changes.
  7. frostfern
    Completely skipped over this side. Hope to finally get a good nocturnal light show at some point when the front comes back north. This summer has not been cooperative.
  8. frostfern
    Next 10 days looks wet now, possibly really wet if the next cutoff stalls in the right place, but no heat or high CAPE IMBY for a long time. Still boring for summer, but better than drought and smoke.
  9. frostfern
    We got smoke season instead this year.
  10. frostfern
    I remember living in Seattle where the pattern is extremely bimodal in early summer. In June you get a lot of cloudy days where it barely gets above 60, then you get some offshore flow to burn off the stratus and you have a stretch of 80s. The average high is dead smack in the middle, but "average" days aren't the norm at all.
  11. frostfern
    Still feels like miss south will be the rule for me with the frontal zone refusing to push north of I-80. High latitude Greenland block is good for shear/baroclinicity this time of year, but the constantly bad MJO / ENSO phase combo keeps the SE ridge from ever really flexing.
  12. frostfern
    2010 was the good old days.
  13. frostfern
    Yea. The main MCV was headed more northeast rather than southeast, and what came through here was already on its last legs in terms of having instability to work with.
  14. frostfern
    If a kickass nocturnal squall line comes roaring across Lake Michigan it comes from your direction 90% of the time. We are in the same line.
  15. frostfern
    Last night was very beneficial rain and good coverage as well. Just not the light show I wanted. Not video or photoshoot worthy anyways. There’s been a lot of popup tropical downpours lately with occasional rumbles. Very beneficial local rainfall but not really “events”. Still waiting for a squall line thats worth driving to the lake to see.
  16. frostfern
    Tired of all the snow-only weenies from Texas who don’t give a shit about good lightning shows giving me a hard time. Its been a rough summer.
  17. frostfern
    It really wasn’t looking as certain earlier if you were watching the radar closely. Could have been a better light show up here but it did rain. Still waiting for a really good show this year.
  18. frostfern
    Some lake shadow bullshit. Same is it always was. Chicago wins again.
  19. frostfern
    Lake breeze afternoon popups again. Its like Florida. Almost every day the same. I just hope there is something more widespread after dark.
  20. frostfern
    Yea. There’s the strip between I96 and RT 10 that got that training event last week, then there’s a lake breeze popup zone along and just east of 131. Between I96 and I94 and away from the lake breeze convergence zone that set up the last few afternoons its super dry still.
  21. frostfern
    Worried its going straight back to CAD miss south stank pattern after this evening here. Boring summer.
  22. frostfern
    Hope there is actually a solid rainfall up here too. This spotty afternoon popup stuff isn't completely cutting it.
  23. frostfern
    On this side of the lake Holland to Muskegon is also still super dry, like bone dry dry. A lot of the shoreline north of Ludington is pretty dry as well . Most of the rain lately has been at least 20 miles inland, but there are also big dry holes in and around the Lansing area. Classic lake breeze pattern. Solid relief is all from I-94 south.
  24. frostfern
    I keep getting localized afternoon downpours on the US-131 lake breeze. Picked up another unexpected 0.5” in about 15 minutes. Florida type downpour. New green grass is popping up, but mosquitos are out again too, unfortunately. Will be annoying for fireworks watching. The immediate lake shore has been missing out on rains though. Still need an MCS that shares the wealth more widely.
  25. frostfern
    Still not widespread relief from 1-96 north. Lots of dry holes where scattered showers completely missed, especially close to the lakeshore.
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