frostfern
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Everything posted by frostfern
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SW MI folks are usually allied with N IL folks. Except for the weird zonal track systems. My hope is the system is a bit less thread-the-needle than modelled QPF. There usually is more than one weenie band.
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I was not okay when the ECMWF caved SE. Hoping for the NAM to verify is like pissing in the wind.
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Did anyone seriously buy the NAM? Still time for the others to edge NW. Keeping hope alive.
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I like it better when the amped solutions are nailing me, not Green Bay. Much better than having to wish for a weaker system to avoid rain / mixed-garbage. The snow magnets are out.
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Time for Me and Alek to get the old snow magnet out. Same line with this orientation.
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Kind of the classic theoretical La Niña winter now in February. Very active polar jet with lots of storm opportunities, but also lots of northwest cutters. January was kind of counter to this though with that unending Pacific hose -> boring weather east of Rockies pattern.
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If the system ends up occluding before it reaches the Great Lakes, like you alluded to before, the more pronounced dry slot would make the time frame for mixed-precip too short for much ice accretion. Don't really need another scenario like the previous two systems. Most likely scenarios would be heavy but brief mixed-bag changing to drizzle, or a snowstorm.
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More glaze from this than the last one. It was falling from the trees pretty good when it warmed above freezing.
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2” of sleet. Very small amount of ice from drizzle.
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Only minor ice accumulation on the trees. The watery sleet bounces off tree branches but it certainly stuck to the car. Crust doesn't come off so easily. It's basically sleet glued together with clear ice.
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Its mostly sleet here.
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I-96 on the ice/sleet line and I-94 on the ice/rain line. Little shifts N/S keeping me on edge.
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Please do. I push.
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Lake effect isn’t real snow. Its mostly air and shrinks by 50% as soon as the sun comes out.
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Living the dream.
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You really want to lose power? I really don’t see the snow line getting south of I-96. Its either ice or plain rain south of I-94. I’ll be happy to eat my words as another south shift would put me in the solid snow zone as opposed to sleet. I-94 zone is f*ed if it stays below freezing. Good luck.☹️
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Trending towards another sleet-fest for me. Most boring un-weenie outcome, but at least I wont lose power. A little too early to be sure it won't trend back north though.
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I wish. F ice.
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The strength of the northern stream system is kind of in question too. There's a lot of baroclinicity, but the wave itself is not very compact. The lead southern stream low pulls a lot of moisture north, but it doesn't really deepen the broad upper-level system ejecting from the SW. The phasing isn't very constructive.
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It's kind of a complicated situation with the lead low having most of the moisture. On the GFS there's a definite break between the initial surge of overrunning precip and the main low. I don't know if that will help much though. The warm sector looks mostly dry, but there could be one of those narrow lines of convective showers right by the cold/occluded front that pulls some strong gusts down to the surface.
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It happens commonly where there is terrain influenced flow, like Colorado. Denver area gets some wild looking hodos. It seems more difficult outside of the plains though.
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I'm nervous for this area. The early April 2003 setup was similar to this. The models were all over the place a few days before, some having 70 degree warmth surging north into Michigan, but in the end the cold didn't budge. There wasn't antecedent arctic air, but NE inflow was cold/dry enough to wet-bulb to around 30 under the heavy precip. The ground was mostly just wet, but the trees in my area got absolutely brutalized with 0.75-1.0"" ice coating.
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Another slop-fest. The potential for mixed p-type convection is concerning.
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Total a very dense 3", about half wet snow and half sleet.
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It seems to be about half-and-half here. There was drizzle mixed with the sleet as well so its real crusty slop.
