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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    Ready 2b miss south stanked. Not even any heat. Oh look, a drought with 2 sprinkles and temps in the 70s. Michigan might as well be the new coastal Namibia. This summer is going down in history as the most boring ever. There’s just no way it can get any more boring.
  2. frostfern
    I notice some old smoke drifting back in from the southeast! It air was actually cleaner under the ridge yesterday. Shit got ingested by the cutoff and just sat in place for days. Weird how smoke can drift in from pretty much any direction.
  3. frostfern
    At least if the front gets stalled it can come back north, or at least trigger overrunning precip or elevated convection to its north. The problem is the cold fronts this year seem to clear everything and end up in the SE CONUS where they reinforce / regenerate the East Coast / SE CONUS cutoff pattern that never seems to end.
  4. frostfern
    Some runs are kicking out the SE cutoff and extending the Mexico/Texas death ridge northeast, setting up an I-80 baroclinic zone. Op runs like 12 days ago occasionally showed this mythical mirage of a pattern change only to trend back to the SE troughing / rex block as the time approached.
  5. frostfern
    Unlike this year there were a lot of ridge-riders that year in May/June. It was very scattered / hit-and-miss but there was actual weather around. This year instead of a classic death ridge we’ve been having rex blocks extending all the way to Hudson Bay with cutoff troughs hanging out to the south. Far more boring pattern this year.
  6. frostfern
    Seems like a classic El Nino jet split has been causing the drought here. Its normally a winter pattern, but this El Nino is on the roids. It also causes anomalous heat and rainy season failure / drought in Central America, particularly west of the divide.
  7. frostfern
    I’m used to convection playing hop scotch IMBY. Really need a strongly forced nocturnal event to do anything good here as lake breeze divergence is still very hostile to afternoon development this time of year. I can’t even remember the last nocturnal warm front event here. Even last year lacked them. Its like the lack of clippers in winter.
  8. frostfern
    Rather not IMBY. Derechos often move too fast to provide meaningful precip. Then the aftermath sucks once the excitement wears off. I just want a regular thunderstorm with nice lightning and heavy rain.
  9. frostfern
    Looks like the next rain will be a MSP special. Another “bad timing” hop scotch event for me most likely.
  10. frostfern
    Bring the ridge. SW flow for once in my life. Real humid heat has a much better chance of delivering a proper downpour at this latitude. Constantly grazed by the back edge of the lollygagging upper trough that spits a couple hundredths over 12 hours is so useless.
  11. frostfern
    I’ll pull my hair out if its one of those I-80/I-90 only MCS tracks and Michigan is still in the turd zone. Either spread the wealth or don’t bother.
  12. frostfern
    Same here. There was *maybe* a very distant rumble a few days ago when there was action on the east side of the state. No official t-storm on record since 4-20 though.
  13. frostfern
    I’m thinking the death ridge is going to expand in July and there will be triple digit heat at some point. That will be the excitement. The drought will just get worse due to evap rates even if there are some storms to track.
  14. frostfern
    Wish things worked like that.
  15. frostfern
    Congrats you at least got some excitement. Skipped over this side.
  16. frostfern
    As soon as you turn off your rain shield.
  17. frostfern
    You may find yourself under a thick pall of smoke. You may find yourself being scolded on AmericanWX for watering your lawn ( and/or palm trees).
  18. frostfern
    Yep. Don’t really have a reason to post other than to complain. Zzzzzzzz…. Might just go away until fall. This isn’t just “bad luck” problem. The pattern is legitimately whack due to Super El Nino, AGW, and other factors.
  19. frostfern
    It seems like the summer warm front has gone the way of the winter clipper. Blocking just refuses to GTFO.
  20. frostfern
    Pathetically insufficient totals despite prolonged cold “rainy day” feel. Sequim Washington climo. Pfffft.
  21. frostfern
    Don't know if it ever will. Looking like a "cool drought". About the most uninteresting shit you can imagine.
  22. frostfern
    That heat dome is bad for Iowa bug good for MBY if a ridge rider MCS pattern can happen. Always the ever present SW whiff risk here though with warm front getting hung up on I-80/I-90 regardless of what models say. Ready to start pulling my hair out.
  23. frostfern
    Sad. There might be some wrap-around sprinkles here Monday night or Tuesday, but I’d rather these stupid spinning lows move on out. The longer they hang back the longer they push back the return to normal summer with MCS potential. If that even happens this year at all.
  24. frostfern
    Studies I’ve read indicate that smoke or dust decreases warm process precip, but increases cold process precip. In midlatitudes it could increase snow in the winter, but the summer effect would be negligible as both processes are equally important. It would only decreases precip in places in which the majority of it falls from shallow warm clouds, i.e. tropical oceanic climates in the trade wind belts, Hawaii for instance.
  25. frostfern
    What do ya know, the final hour SE shift isn’t just a winter thing.
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