https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/
Enhanced rainfall around Indonesia usually correlates to a stronger SE ridge (i.e. -PNA). The problem is there's also a predicted destabilization of the polar vortex, which throws a wrench into things. Also, the peak amplitude is in phase 3 which is really a transition from +PNA to -PNA. Phase 3 is ambiguous, but if the MJO stays amplified and moves into phase 4-6, it might mean a warm March. It could just as easily be less amplified and overpowered by whatever happens with the PV breakup.