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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    The lake doesn't have much of an effect at night as far as training storms go. There's just climatologically more instability the more west you go because the gulf moisture goes up the plains and then curves east. MCS gets ahead of the CAPE pool by the time it gets to the Great Lakes. That combined with a bad synoptic pattern with a ridge to the west and a trough to the east = suppression.
  2. frostfern
    Seems almost every summer there are long stretches where all the thunder stays west of Michigan. The stronger storms make it to the Michigan side of Lake Michigan, but a lot of garden variety MCS arrive late at night in their final death throws, then the next day is like 30% chance of a popup before the cold front comes through at 2pm.
  3. frostfern
    Fresh snow melts a lot faster than old snow, and it looked like most of the old snow was already melted before the last storm.
  4. frostfern
    No good thunder in the long range. What is it with these backdoor trough / ridge-stuck-west patterns. Happens every spring just as the sun angle gets high enough to actually destabilize things in a good pattern.
  5. frostfern
    Michigan climo.
  6. frostfern
    I'll take some to keep things lush. At least it's in the upper 50s as opposed to the upper 30s.
  7. frostfern
    Miss south stank season.
  8. frostfern
    If you pave a road, maintenance becomes more important. Everyone automatically starts driving faster and potholes in pavement are like 10 times more likely to cause sudden tire blowout.
  9. frostfern
    Would be "mercy hole". The sun was actually poking through earlier. Now its back to cold and gray with a pathetic drizzle you can feel on your skin but can't really even see with the naked eye.
  10. frostfern
    Spring storms in Michigan are often hidden by layers of frontal clouds. Summer is when you get the blossoming distant towers with clear conditions for miles around. I got video of a really good frequent IC display as a backbuilding complex slowly slid off to the S and SE in late August 2019. This was one of the best ones I have seen on this side of the state. https://youtu.be/YL4YWlq-bwg
  11. frostfern
    Recent years there have been long t-storm droughts from mid-June into late July where everything gets brown. That annoying super-amplified plains ridge where every MCS just dives straight S from northern Minnesota into Illinois and the cold fronts all come through dry east of there. It the late spring season is a dud it often doesn’t get interesting again until August.
  12. frostfern
    Its funny how “torch” can mean mid 50s and showers if it happens in a snow month. Only here.
  13. frostfern
    The sun angle would do something for us if that dumb blocking upper low would stop slinging the turd weather south from the arctic.
  14. frostfern
    Yea. Pretty much the same type of pattern that causes waterspouts causes lake-effect graupel showers here. The spring variety corn-snow seems to happen at colder temperatures and is a bit smaller in size from what I've noticed in this area. Strong afternoon sun turns a wet snow squall into a graupel shower. There's also a phenomenon called the Puget Sound Convergence Zone that sometimes causes graupel with thunder and lightning in the Seattle area. Landspout type tornadoes happen on rare occasions too. I think copious graupel is the most common with high elevation summer thunderstorms. I've been camping out west before where several inches of graupel accumulated during a thunderstorm.
  15. frostfern
    There was something in Kamchatka. Destructive ash fall, but it's a minor event climatologically. Mt. St. Helens had a very very small effect and this was quite a lot smaller than that. People don't realize the magnitude you need to have an actual impact.
  16. frostfern
    It's pretty common in the fall here with the first super cold 500mb low crossing Lake Michigan.
  17. frostfern
    Chop 20 off that week and add +20 to this week I'd be happy. Annoying to go from low 80s to upper 30s. Rest of the month looks bleak.
  18. frostfern
    The heat index combos were pretty incredible during the July 1995 heatwave, but other July's have been quite a bit hotter overall. Don't quote me on it, but 1988 and 2012 had hotter July's I think. Even July 2018 was very warm, even though it didn't have any heat waves or daily records broken (maybe a high low or two). That was more just high humidity and a lack of good cold fronts.
  19. frostfern
    That's crazy. Funny what can happen when the west wind is strong enough to shunt the marine layer offshore. There's quite a w-e gradient here. I'd actually be very happy with upper 50s and low 60s this time of year as that's what makes for a good flower season. Can't really complain, but prolonged summer-like temps always seems to screws things up here if it happens before early May. There's always that late freeze.
  20. frostfern
    It seems like black flies don't really take notice until you start to sweat. Like if you try to do landscaping or anything that requires hard sweaty work in the dirt they absolutely maul your head, like behind the ears, around the eyes, etc... Fleas and gnats are most annoying at night IMO. In places with no screens you try to read or use your laptop at night they see the light then come in and bite. They don't always bite, but sometimes just seeing them makes me start itching.
  21. frostfern
    Before the Morch, it used to seem like all those old records from the mid 20th century were impossible to beat. It's still hard to beat a lot of summer records though, despite a warming climate overall. Seems like it's harder to get the heat without the humidity these days. To really smash records you need a dry heat, more often than not. July 1995 did both heat and humidity, but that was about as unusual as Morch 2012.
  22. frostfern
    Yea. Black flies are obnoxious. I react to them way more than mosquitos. Even if they only bite one tiny spot, the whole area will erupt in itchy hives. They go for the head and face way more than mosquitos too. I spent the spring in Vermont in my younger days. One warm day in May they all come out at once.
  23. frostfern
    27 degree 850s would equate to triple digits at sea level. The low level jet is pushing it east, but April sun angle isn't quite the same as June or July. It's a little harder to mix it all down.
  24. frostfern
    Funny having flood warnings and red flag warnings at the same time. It's windy but the dewpoint isn't as low as it could be. Conifers do torch pretty easily this time of year though, regardless of humidity.
  25. frostfern
    That must be incredibly heavy. It's like summer mountain snow at this point. What like 150" of powder all compressed down to 30"?
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