frostfern

Given trends this year it will probably be isolated discrete supercells again. Would rather have a solid squall line or, better yet, backbuilding cluster overhead.

0.03 What a joke

Actual 2 month rainfall. Notice all the moderate to severe drought areas in Illinnois and Indiana have had about the same or more rainfall than the dry areas of Michigan. Drought is only worse there due to more heat and slightly wetter climatology (thus bigger departures). As far as boring thunderless weather, its pretty bad here this year.

I didn’t get anything. Actually the most annoying thing is the gradient being so close with areas just to my SW being actually WET. And it looks like the next MCS goes over the SAME area yet again. From just north of Madison, the streak dives SE and smashes the SW corner while GRR north and east gets a few stratiform sprinkles. It would be less aggravating if the rain was missing by hundreds of miles instead of being constantly close.

Not liking the continued whiff SW lake shadow / lake deflection pattern this weekend. Just can’t get a break from the dryness this summer. Amped bad climo continues.

So of course I get dry gapped with the ultra-skinny line, sans stratiform sprinkles adding a few hundredths. No drought relief with this nonsense. Weird to see the micro-cell that popped nearby become tornado-warned north of Lansing though. I didn't see that coming. Going to bed.

If the south part of this line doesn't fill in you'll have your wish. Missing 0.2" from a 10 minute shower will put me in suicide mode.

It was never wet up here, and now more f*ckery.

More turdy dry NW flow. Becoming a desert here.

zzzzzz…. Need the heat and humidity or it doesn’t ever rain here.

Most summer severe events are associated with heat somewhere nearby. You just have to be on the perimeter. If the perimeter of the heat dome is up in Canada that's where the severe is. Troughing is the least conducive, at least north of the OV. If you aren't right next to the GOM (aka spring dixie outbreaks), you can't really built up enough CAPE without a cap to the south or west.

Cold stratiform borefest in March/April sure. We are missing out on a lot of thunderstorms lately compared to other years.

That map is missing a lot if local details. One county south there’s been more rain. Same north and east. They smooth it out. Plus the heat hasn’t been as extreme here, but actual rain is still low.

Im in the white but locally dryer than areas in yellow. Maybe less heat. Still dry is dry. Gardens are not doing well.

Actually, though I chased, the June 13 event was also a miss south for MBY. Big stuff either missed north or south for the whole year so far. The only events that produced over an inch of rain at once were boring stratiform events in may. It's more aggravating that the long term looks like continued NW flow with transient fronts pushing through quickly and convection dying as it approaches from the NW at night, lake shadowed, etc.... Same old same old. At least you have a good chance of heavy rain tomorrow. Here it's just nothing for weeks on end.

Big whiff south here. Very typical.

zzzzzzz.......... forever.

.82" but not even close to a drought buster. Best rainfall whiffed just barely southwest as is typical here.

I wonder where tonights convective train sets up. I want that rain bullseye so bad the anxiety feels similar to anticipating a good snowstorm.

Looks like a major miss-south pattern for me next week. Just can't win anything this year. zzzzzzzz

Light stratiform zzzzzz signal. Nudge it north please.

GRR mentioned anomalously high mid-level pressure over the south pushing all the gulf moisture the into the SW US. The monsoon started way early in the desert SW. Colorado front range could see flooding storms at some point. That's where our moisture is being stolen to. They need the rain too... but it's kind of a weird pattern and it's supposed to persist for at least another week.

And all it did was make the stat record more boring. It's not like the pattern will change for July. We need like three inches to really put a dent.

Meh. Really need more of that "flat ridge" (semi-zonal but very warm/hot just south) pattern to get widespread convection with severe possibilities. No amplified NW flow, no trough, and no amplified ridge extending up into Canada. Those are the three dominant patterns this summer, unfortunately.

A few models show a general half-inch, but GRR isn't buying it. I still say better chance of a spoiler with around 0.25" area wide, but could be lower locally. Cellular activity often finds a way to dance around GRR this year. Even the north side of town isn't quite so parched as the southeast because of some more hefty nocturnal cells just barely missing around the 13th/14th.