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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    This was what June and July were like here. The switch finally flipped at the beginning of this month. Grass is spring-green again, but there's still evidence of stress to some of the younger trees.
  2. frostfern
    Hoping to get rocked with the incoming MCS. Surviving well so far. The instability is on the wane going east, but there's decent shear and the lake isn't all that cold anymore.
  3. frostfern
    Lots of 30-day wet and lots of 30-day screw zones on the map now, even though it has evened out some over the long haul. Spots of SE Iowa and the Saginaw Bay area are pretty deep in the hole for the entire summer at this point though.
  4. frostfern
    There's quite a variation around Michigan too now. Still extremely dry over much of Northeast Lower MI, as well as the "Lake Erie Shadow" zone between Detroit and Toledo. I don't know how accurate these radar estimates are, but the showers and storms yesterday put down buckets over extremely localized spots. Kind of a tropical pattern with scattered slow moving storms blossoming in the afternoon with outflow / lake-breeze interactions determining where the heaviest rain falls.
  5. frostfern
    So El Niño pattern decides to show up in the fall. Lovely. Happy there's been good rain so far this month as compared to last, but 2022 has been such a bore-fest.
  6. frostfern
    Just had the heaviest rain bomb I've seen in a while. Not severe, but it looked like the trees were being pushed straight down when it came. 1/8 mile visibility, probably even less than that for a brief moment.
  7. frostfern
    Are those troughs not just the negative image of the Rockies/Plains death ridge that is now pretty much a climate feature? The areas of "troughing" have simply been "average" as compared to the "much above" most other places.
  8. frostfern
    I went on a trip to Alberta. I saw some supercells way off in the distance on the road, but missed the (most likely) best storm of the season at home. It happened last year too.
  9. frostfern
    Booooring
  10. frostfern
    I'm just keeping my fingers crossed for next Wednesday's low to track across northern lower MI like the 18z GFS now shows. Really really need a solid squall line or training MCS, though it will probably be non-drought-busting hit-and-miss severe cells yet again given its summer 2022.
  11. frostfern
    6+ hours of cloudy misty "rainy day" feel, yet only 0.05" to show for it.
  12. frostfern
    Ohio doesn't need rain anymore. How about sharing?
  13. frostfern
    Given trends this year it will probably be isolated discrete supercells again. Would rather have a solid squall line or, better yet, backbuilding cluster overhead.
  14. frostfern
    0.03 What a joke
  15. frostfern
    Actual 2 month rainfall. Notice all the moderate to severe drought areas in Illinnois and Indiana have had about the same or more rainfall than the dry areas of Michigan. Drought is only worse there due to more heat and slightly wetter climatology (thus bigger departures). As far as boring thunderless weather, its pretty bad here this year.
  16. frostfern
    I didn’t get anything. Actually the most annoying thing is the gradient being so close with areas just to my SW being actually WET. And it looks like the next MCS goes over the SAME area yet again. From just north of Madison, the streak dives SE and smashes the SW corner while GRR north and east gets a few stratiform sprinkles. It would be less aggravating if the rain was missing by hundreds of miles instead of being constantly close.
  17. frostfern
    Not liking the continued whiff SW lake shadow / lake deflection pattern this weekend. Just can’t get a break from the dryness this summer. Amped bad climo continues.
  18. frostfern
    So of course I get dry gapped with the ultra-skinny line, sans stratiform sprinkles adding a few hundredths. No drought relief with this nonsense. Weird to see the micro-cell that popped nearby become tornado-warned north of Lansing though. I didn't see that coming. Going to bed.
  19. frostfern
    If the south part of this line doesn't fill in you'll have your wish. Missing 0.2" from a 10 minute shower will put me in suicide mode.
  20. frostfern
    It was never wet up here, and now more f*ckery.
  21. frostfern
    More turdy dry NW flow. Becoming a desert here.
  22. frostfern
    zzzzzz…. Need the heat and humidity or it doesn’t ever rain here.
  23. frostfern
    Most summer severe events are associated with heat somewhere nearby. You just have to be on the perimeter. If the perimeter of the heat dome is up in Canada that's where the severe is. Troughing is the least conducive, at least north of the OV. If you aren't right next to the GOM (aka spring dixie outbreaks), you can't really built up enough CAPE without a cap to the south or west.
  24. frostfern
    Cold stratiform borefest in March/April sure. We are missing out on a lot of thunderstorms lately compared to other years.
  25. frostfern
    That map is missing a lot if local details. One county south there’s been more rain. Same north and east. They smooth it out. Plus the heat hasn’t been as extreme here, but actual rain is still low.
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