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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    It's getting murky here. Outflow is still a ways to the north, but some TCU with dark bases are now popping overhead, along with the southwest edge of the anvil blowoff. Sitting at 86/72. Soup.
  2. frostfern
    I'm not really expecting much severe, but a wet downburst situation with wind driven quarter size hail is certainly possible where any of the stronger updraft pulses suddenly collapse. Flash flooding potential is also really high. Too bad I'm feeling so sick from covid booster yesterday. Ugh. There's no way I'm driving around feeling this dizzy.
  3. frostfern
    Yea. If this pattern happened in mid-July it would be on par with 1995.
  4. frostfern
    Convection is backbuilding this way with 4000 J/KG CAPE to work with. Whether it actually makes it to MBY is kind of up in the air, but the outflow will probably get here.
  5. frostfern
    Tomorrow is tricky for GRR. If outflow from the scattered convection off to the north doesn’t make it to I-96 it could end up warmer than expected. The weak backdoor cold front never really materialized. A due south wind means minimal lake influence, so long as convection doesn’t pop up on the lake breeze and send outflow farther east.
  6. frostfern
    Should have known better than to trust models showing an MCS charging straight through a death ridge. The thing of interest here in West Michigan is the heat and humidity might overperform tomorrow. The weak backdoor cool front that was shown in the Euro isn’t really materializing. Due south wind usually means no lake influence here, unless there’s enough convergence to trigger some afternoon popups.
  7. frostfern
    These high amplitude blocky synoptic patterns never trigger good convection east of the Mississippi. The big pool of CAPE will probably retrograde northwest into Minnesota later in the week and all the severe will be there. Useless pattern.
  8. frostfern
    Grand Rapids MI is a general thunder graveyard.
  9. frostfern
    Model fail.
  10. frostfern
    The more southeasterly wind kept the humidity down earlier, but its getting muggier now.
  11. frostfern
    In this kind of situation a supercell can build right into the stronger instability so much that it doesn't need as much deep layer shear as you'd think. The thing going against tornadoes is rapid upscale growth into QLCS mode, like the typical summer situation. Wind damage is pretty likely with embedded RFD features as there's a nice dry layer aloft right above the juice.
  12. frostfern
    It looks like a typical July/Aug nocturnal ridge-rider. They always turn more right compared to what models show.
  13. frostfern
    I'm seeing some green here on the west side of the state. The dominant natural canopy trees here are red maples and red and white oaks, and those are still rather bare looking, but I see small green leaves on a lot of the ornamental trees and understory trees. Norway maples, birches, and elms are all getting green.
  14. frostfern
    Well, December is the new severe season.
  15. frostfern
    The heat arrives earlier and then intensifies towards the end of the week in the latest runs. The only question is if there is any convection around Monday through Wednesday. It doesn't look like any proper cold fronts, just a weak little upper waves brushing by. By the end of the week everything is firmly capped except the far northwest, so it can get hot most places so long as the SE US upper cutoff doesn't retrograde earlier than forecast. Those upper cutoffs are so fickle though.
  16. frostfern
    What is it with Michigan and boring springs lately. When it finally warms up its always this meandering blocky shit that shunts the jet way northwest. Same thing every year. What does it take to get a more zonal pattern that pushes shear and instability farther east than the Mississippi? Lately it's either a constant trough or a strung out meandering ridge with nothing in between.
  17. frostfern
    Well, then Iowa and eastern Minnesota. These amplified blocky patterns are fickle. Cooler air coming in from the periphery of the SE cutoff will put an end to 80+ temps before the western trough gets anywhere near. It will probably still be in the 70s though, even with showers around. Much better than a polar trough, but still a boring pattern.
  18. frostfern
    Yea, northwest Wisconsin. Still looks boring for Michigan :(. Retrograding subtropical cutoff eats up the ridge from the east with no fanfare. zzzzzzzz
  19. frostfern
    Is it squished straight south or shunted more east instead of due north? I'd prefer the later is it would mean better chances of interesting weather in my area. The northern edge of thermonuclear cap with thermonuclear cape values just to the south can be fun.
  20. frostfern
    The models show the ridge shooting up past James Bay. It could hit 90 in Northern Ontario with what's being shown. At least any areas where the soil is sufficiently dry.
  21. frostfern
    I don't have a personal gauge, but GRR is 9.52". Most of it fell as steady rains as opposed to downpours so it feels like it's been very rainy.
  22. frostfern
    It will be fun watching the leaves suddenly grow like mad when this torch arrives. A lot of buds are open giving a yellowish hue here and there, but the canopies are still looking pretty brown and naked.
  23. frostfern
    Euro is showing a brief torch potential around the 9th through 11th. It's a little early for comfort, given it can STILL freeze until the middle of May given recent trends. Hopefully less likely this year with wetter soil. Would prefer some 70s. Mid 80s for one day then back to 50s with nothing in between is quite annoying.
  24. frostfern
    Warm anomalies in the south and cold in the north help the cause for severe weather. It's usually a miss south for the GL, but it means more shear if a there is a good northern stream low to draw the warmth up even briefly.
  25. frostfern
    It's the time of year where if the sun came out we could hit 60. The real killer is the constant cloud cover. Stuck on the wrong side of one system after another. Now later in the week we get into one of those sh***y blocking patterns where it's actually warmer to the north because the sun is out while a cloudy cutoff hangs out to the south keeping things perpetually stuck in the 50s.
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