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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    Watching cell roll in off the lake at south haven. Will have to dart for the nearest gas station canopy if its a hailer.
  2. frostfern
    Wondering if that cell will eventually become the northern bookend of a bow. Or if it will remain discrete for a while. CAMS say the upscale growth will probably happen over Lake Michigan. I think the line will start to build build south into the extreme instability over northern Indiana.
  3. frostfern
    Upward suction from mesocyclone can overcome quite a bit of surface CIN. The surface instability is/was pretty meager right there in Madison, but the big gradient is close enough if it turns a little to the right. I don't think the analysis captures a sharp gradient well. It smooths it. The lake-modified vs not lake modified boundary can be pretty sharp. There are breaks in the clouds and low 80s plus low 70s dews near the Illinois border.
  4. frostfern
    This cell is getting organized and tapping some surface instability.
  5. frostfern
    I'm just debating if I should immediately drive down to the southern lake shore to watch when I get off work. Maybe Benton Harbor area. Still uncertainty though.
  6. frostfern
    The 12C isotherm at 700 mb seems like the boundary for where convection is overcoming the cap. If the cell near Madison is indicative of where an MCS could form, it might backbuild south into the more extreme instability over northern Indiana once it passes southern lake Michigan. Better shear is coming in from the west with time as well.
  7. frostfern
    Yea, the 925 mb inflow is west of that cluster. It would have to back-build across Illinois to really get in the way. Seems unlikely with a strong cap over Illinois. I think its way more likely it will just dive SE into Kentucky.
  8. frostfern
    That MCV is pretty weak at this point. It's got some clouds and light precip with it, but it's also pulling the front north a little. The surface cool layer in Wisconsin is partly due to wind off Lake Michigan. Maybe something will pop up in the SW corner of MI because of the lake breeze. CAPE is becoming more surface based there finally.
  9. frostfern
    That little 60 kt 500mb jet will be the thing to watch I think. Maybe some supercells around if the cap breaks just a little southwest of the current elevated activity.
  10. frostfern
    Not an easy day for them. Too quick to latch on to the squall line CAM solutions earlier today.
  11. frostfern
    Just watching SW lower. With no squall line and not a lot of outflow from the elevated activity over WI, the chance for an isolated tornado near the lake breeze seems higher to me. SE winds plus lake breeze plus 50 kts of 0-6 shear would be scary if there is enough surface based instability. That's pretty limited right now, but maybe a tongue of 1000-2000 SBCAPE will come north into the SW corner eventually. The front seems kind of hung up at the moment.
  12. frostfern
    Summer 2012 was extremely warm, but it was a dry heat most of the time. Rain was very hit and miss with all the post-torch cold fronts because dewpoints were mixing down into the upper 50s a lot in the afternoon and the lake shadow effect was strong. When gulf moisture did occasionally make it north of the OV, the MCS track was mostly south of Michigan.
  13. frostfern
    I have never seen a 30 C at 850 mb over a low spot like KC before.
  14. frostfern
    The Morch, April, May had some amazing lightning shows and of course the surprise tornado. After that it was just off-and-on heat, underperforming dewpoints, and weak dry cold fronts. Spring was interesting, summer was boring. Lately it has been the opposite. Most severe opportunities are mid-June or later... more like typical climatology.
  15. frostfern
    It's really up in the air at this point. If the elevated stuff currently over southern Minnesota reaches my side of the lake this afternoon there could be a supercell or two that becomes surface based. The surface wind will certainly be backed along the warm front, pooling some higher dewpoints up against the lake meso-high. Even without discrete cells, a lake-breeze / warm-front combo can produce QLCS tornadoes and/or mesocyclone wind damage. That has happened more than once here, even later at night.
  16. frostfern
    I don’t know how to feel about a derecho followed by 100+ heat indeces IMBY. My folks are in the process of moving and having power out into Tuesday will be a nightmare. Hope it misses south honestly.
  17. frostfern
    Yea. If I were them I'd adjust the orientation. It will probably be more NW-SE. Northern Indiana will get hit. Northern Illinois, not so likely.
  18. frostfern
    Maybe their thinking is the farther north solutions have less wind threat due to the best instability being slightly elevated in those cases. The warm front is moving north and will have some clouds associated with it. In any case, I think 80 degree dewpoints will eventually overcome any cap once a strong cold pool is established. Even if Illinois is missed, it could still do the hard right turn moving into Michigan then back build across Indiana.
  19. frostfern
    It would be nice to have a progressive MCS coming out of the west for once this year. I get tired of going between a ridge where the good convection is always NW, and a subtropical cutoff where it's just cloudy muggy soup with not a lot of instability to work with.
  20. frostfern
    Yea. They were slow movers. Where it did rain it rained hard, but a lot of places missed out. There wasn't a ton of thunder here, just occasional soft peals, but the rainfall rates were very tropical. There was just under 2 inches here yesterday, but there was far less just a few miles north and west.
  21. frostfern
    There is a stationary rain band stalled IMBY. The feature really isn't moving at all. SE side of town is getting absolutely inundated. Surprised no flash flood warning. The puddles are huge already.
  22. frostfern
    Hard tropical rains today. Just a little soft rumbling thunder, but major downpours. Looks like no drought any time soon this year.
  23. frostfern
    Well. People take tornado warnings very seriously in Indiana. Not so much in northern Michigan.
  24. frostfern
    Hi-res radar loops I made of Gaylord tornado event. Basic Reflectivity Loop Close Up Radar Analysis
  25. frostfern
    I'm getting Flagstaff AZ. The page isn't working.
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