frostfern

A beefier SE ridge combined with a Greenland block might do that. For severe I'd rather see it in May than March though.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Enhanced rainfall around Indonesia usually correlates to a stronger SE ridge (i.e. -PNA). The problem is there's also a predicted destabilization of the polar vortex, which throws a wrench into things. Also, the peak amplitude is in phase 3 which is really a transition from +PNA to -PNA. Phase 3 is ambiguous, but if the MJO stays amplified and moves into phase 4-6, it might mean a warm March. It could just as easily be less amplified and overpowered by whatever happens with the PV breakup.

60 mph wind gust woke me up in early morning hours. House shook and I heard some branches hitting the roof. I was not expecting that.

GRR thinks it will be mostly sleet IMBY. Booooring. I don't know if I should wish for something more interesting, like a glazing. That sh*t is such a pain in the ass though I don't think I really want to see it. Is it really too late for a 40 mile SE shift?

That's a dingleberry dangling.

Give me hot and stormy. I like my Florida weather. Cool and dry is the worst. I still need 4 distinct seasons though. Just not boring.

Clouds tend to break up more often under the arctic air here. Snow showers happen, but the instability and arctic dryness aloft mixes out the clouds between bouts of lake-effect. It's the in-between upper-20s to mid-30s airmasses that lock the stratus deck in for days at a time. When the clouds are too shallow to precipitate they just sit and create the endless boring gray look. At least that is what I notice in my own micro-climate downwind of Lake Michigan.

An early spring would be nice for once. A will take a snowstorm in March, but I'm tired of the cold April/May after mild winter trend. Sadly spring is the one season that has been consistently cool, while every other season is consistently above average.

I get the same way here in the summer when the thunderstorm shield happens and the flowers die and the vegetation starts getting brown.

The Saint Lawrence valley to the northwest is close to sea level and majority of the ridges in the White Mountains are between 4000 and 5000 ft. In winter there's usually a more stable layer beginning somewhere 5000 and 10,000 feet that acts as a lid on the air flow. So the flow of air originating over the Saint Lawrence valley speeds up as it gets constricted in the vertical to pass over a 4000-5000 ft. range. Now add to this the fact that Mount Washington itself juts up 1500 feet higher than all the surrounding ridges of the White Mountains. The orographic funneling effect is due to the range as a whole, but Mount Washington sticks up even higher, right into the core of the orographic jet.

Not a good look for the prime of winter. If only I could buy this pattern in late April.

You'd think I'd be happy with three 12"+ lake effect events the past two years, but there were no follow-up clippers to keep things fresh and the thaws came so quick. I miss the prolonged snowpacks that haven't really happened since 2014.

Glad it's a glancing blow for MBY since it was never going to produce anything but painful CAD. Being on the western edge of an arctic high with some snowcover is a nice for once - while it lasts. I do like cold nights and sunshine better than mid-30s + cloudy that's been so prevalent this year. It looks like it won't even get below zero though. Timing just isn't right with the northwest breeze not dying off fast enough last night and warm advection beginning tonight already.

Last 2 winters being in the LES belt saved me. I miss the consistency of cold and clippers pre-2016 though. Long periods of mid30s + overcast + bare ground made it more depressing than average outside the excitement of a couple LES bomb events and the minor wet thump last week. Not getting my hopes up for next week, but its nice to finally have some crisp sunny cold with fresh snowcover - while it lasts. Then back to more 30s-40s and constant cloudcover.

Watching the virga circle slowly shrink.

GRR went into a lot of technical detail last discussion... I feel like I'm probably the only one who appreciates this stuff though. I think this is the kind of setting where you can get rapid changes between small grainy flakes and freezing drizzle and huge wet flakes depending on how strong the upward motion is locally. Forecasting accumulations can be hard.

Most likely another miss SE, but even weaker. I'm more hopeful for the lead clipper overperforming somehow IMBY.

Hoping the track can nudge NW like ECMWF shows, and make that a trend. Just want something better than 1-2".

Not likely north of the OV, at least not before the second week of February, and by then I'll be looking forward to spring anyways. Sun angle going up!

California really needed the rain, but the endless Pacific storm train really did a number on January. One of the most protracted boring periods in all my memory.

Anyone else find SAD especially bad this winter? Perpetually cloudy, bare ground, and in the 30s is the worst. It's just cold enough to make me want to sleep all the time, not cold enough to be invigorating. I'm not just being dramatic. I'm seriously depressed right now. Like I don't even know if I'd get excited about a snowstorm these days. Hard time caring about anything. Anhedonia and constant mental exhaustion for no reason is the worst. No end in sight.

You can have a ground blizzard with 3". There were some amazing drifts in spots Thursday morning despite not a ton of new snow having fallen yet.

There's been some heavy snow here over the past 48 hours. Probably 12" of LE fluff on top of the 4" of synoptic snow from Wednesday evening/night. The drifts are up to 3-4' in some exposed areas. The thing is the snow didn't really start to come down hard until after the wind died down a bit. Thursday morning was brutal in terms of wind and cold, but the snow was light at the time. Though there was a lot of blowing snow in the air, there was somewhat of a dry slot between the synoptic event and the lake effect event. It was nothing like GHD 1 where the strongest wind and heaviest snow occurred together. These 50-80 hour lake effect events have large totals, but they just don't really compare to a storm that drops its load all at once.

Im on the northeast fringe with this wind direction and its too cold to really accumulate anyways. Yea, the wind and pixie dust can really reduce visibility and make things treacherous, but I don’t care. Its all the misery of winter with none of the fun because the actual snowfall is a nothingburger.

Even the lake effect weak sauce. One of the bigger storm fails of all time. I couldn’t give two shits about wind and cold. The fact that there isn’t even anything to look at in fantasy model ads insult to injury.