frostfern
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Everything posted by frostfern
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Outer weenie band just produced a nice rumble of thunder here. The flakes are the biggest I've seen since the November lake effect storm ( which also had a thunder clap ).
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Ridiculously sharp edge creeping ever so close. Flurries right now, but could rip when the returns aloft finally reach the surface. I'll settle for 4" of slop.
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Would have ceased yesterday if I had my way. It looks like my snow magnet was cheap Amazon crap. Need to up my game.
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Jan-Feb 2014 had something for everyone in Michigan. Clippers and LES bonanzas that didn't immediately melt away, and a Detroit big dog as well. The ultimate depth weenie year.
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It just seems that Chicago and Detroit are usually in completely different storm track lanes. Usually if Chicago gets clobbered, somewhere in SW MI will also cash in. The exact bullseye depends on the track of course.
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Miss south stank?
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SW MI folks are usually allied with N IL folks. Except for the weird zonal track systems. My hope is the system is a bit less thread-the-needle than modelled QPF. There usually is more than one weenie band.
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I was not okay when the ECMWF caved SE. Hoping for the NAM to verify is like pissing in the wind.
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Did anyone seriously buy the NAM? Still time for the others to edge NW. Keeping hope alive.
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I like it better when the amped solutions are nailing me, not Green Bay. Much better than having to wish for a weaker system to avoid rain / mixed-garbage. The snow magnets are out.
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Time for Me and Alek to get the old snow magnet out. Same line with this orientation.
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Kind of the classic theoretical La Niña winter now in February. Very active polar jet with lots of storm opportunities, but also lots of northwest cutters. January was kind of counter to this though with that unending Pacific hose -> boring weather east of Rockies pattern.
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If the system ends up occluding before it reaches the Great Lakes, like you alluded to before, the more pronounced dry slot would make the time frame for mixed-precip too short for much ice accretion. Don't really need another scenario like the previous two systems. Most likely scenarios would be heavy but brief mixed-bag changing to drizzle, or a snowstorm.
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More glaze from this than the last one. It was falling from the trees pretty good when it warmed above freezing.
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2” of sleet. Very small amount of ice from drizzle.
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Only minor ice accumulation on the trees. The watery sleet bounces off tree branches but it certainly stuck to the car. Crust doesn't come off so easily. It's basically sleet glued together with clear ice.
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Its mostly sleet here.
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I-96 on the ice/sleet line and I-94 on the ice/rain line. Little shifts N/S keeping me on edge.
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Please do. I push.
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Lake effect isn’t real snow. Its mostly air and shrinks by 50% as soon as the sun comes out.
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Living the dream.
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You really want to lose power? I really don’t see the snow line getting south of I-96. Its either ice or plain rain south of I-94. I’ll be happy to eat my words as another south shift would put me in the solid snow zone as opposed to sleet. I-94 zone is f*ed if it stays below freezing. Good luck.☹️
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Trending towards another sleet-fest for me. Most boring un-weenie outcome, but at least I wont lose power. A little too early to be sure it won't trend back north though.
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I wish. F ice.
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The strength of the northern stream system is kind of in question too. There's a lot of baroclinicity, but the wave itself is not very compact. The lead southern stream low pulls a lot of moisture north, but it doesn't really deepen the broad upper-level system ejecting from the SW. The phasing isn't very constructive.
