frostfern

Living the dream.

You really want to lose power? I really don’t see the snow line getting south of I-96. Its either ice or plain rain south of I-94. I’ll be happy to eat my words as another south shift would put me in the solid snow zone as opposed to sleet. I-94 zone is f*ed if it stays below freezing. Good luck.☹️

Trending towards another sleet-fest for me. Most boring un-weenie outcome, but at least I wont lose power. A little too early to be sure it won't trend back north though.

I wish. F ice.

The strength of the northern stream system is kind of in question too. There's a lot of baroclinicity, but the wave itself is not very compact. The lead southern stream low pulls a lot of moisture north, but it doesn't really deepen the broad upper-level system ejecting from the SW. The phasing isn't very constructive.

It's kind of a complicated situation with the lead low having most of the moisture. On the GFS there's a definite break between the initial surge of overrunning precip and the main low. I don't know if that will help much though. The warm sector looks mostly dry, but there could be one of those narrow lines of convective showers right by the cold/occluded front that pulls some strong gusts down to the surface.

It happens commonly where there is terrain influenced flow, like Colorado. Denver area gets some wild looking hodos. It seems more difficult outside of the plains though.

I'm nervous for this area. The early April 2003 setup was similar to this. The models were all over the place a few days before, some having 70 degree warmth surging north into Michigan, but in the end the cold didn't budge. There wasn't antecedent arctic air, but NE inflow was cold/dry enough to wet-bulb to around 30 under the heavy precip. The ground was mostly just wet, but the trees in my area got absolutely brutalized with 0.75-1.0"" ice coating.

Another slop-fest. The potential for mixed p-type convection is concerning.

Total a very dense 3", about half wet snow and half sleet.

It seems to be about half-and-half here. There was drizzle mixed with the sleet as well so its real crusty slop.

About 2.5" here with a water equivalent of 0.6". 4:1 ratio lol. It's terrible for driving though.

All sleet still here.

Hopefully the stuff coming in from the SW will change back to snow at some point. The radar looks heavy, but its all sleet now overhead. Some low-level bright banding going on. It's not as heavy as the radar would make you think.

Warm/dry slot moved in aloft and it went from steady heavy snow to freezing drizzle with on-and-off sleet showers. Only about 1.5" accumulation so far. The roads are awful though. Very icy in spots.

Big gradient possible right on the snow/sleet/mix line here. Also dry slot nearby. Just light snow off-and-on so far with about 1/4-1/2" accumulation on grassy surfaces + rooftops.

Weird. I have experienced north-facing hill glaze with a temperature around 34. That doesn't seem like what this is though

A beefier SE ridge combined with a Greenland block might do that. For severe I'd rather see it in May than March though.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Enhanced rainfall around Indonesia usually correlates to a stronger SE ridge (i.e. -PNA). The problem is there's also a predicted destabilization of the polar vortex, which throws a wrench into things. Also, the peak amplitude is in phase 3 which is really a transition from +PNA to -PNA. Phase 3 is ambiguous, but if the MJO stays amplified and moves into phase 4-6, it might mean a warm March. It could just as easily be less amplified and overpowered by whatever happens with the PV breakup.

60 mph wind gust woke me up in early morning hours. House shook and I heard some branches hitting the roof. I was not expecting that.

GRR thinks it will be mostly sleet IMBY. Booooring. I don't know if I should wish for something more interesting, like a glazing. That sh*t is such a pain in the ass though I don't think I really want to see it. Is it really too late for a 40 mile SE shift?

That's a dingleberry dangling.

Give me hot and stormy. I like my Florida weather. Cool and dry is the worst. I still need 4 distinct seasons though. Just not boring.

Clouds tend to break up more often under the arctic air here. Snow showers happen, but the instability and arctic dryness aloft mixes out the clouds between bouts of lake-effect. It's the in-between upper-20s to mid-30s airmasses that lock the stratus deck in for days at a time. When the clouds are too shallow to precipitate they just sit and create the endless boring gray look. At least that is what I notice in my own micro-climate downwind of Lake Michigan.

An early spring would be nice for once. A will take a snowstorm in March, but I'm tired of the cold April/May after mild winter trend. Sadly spring is the one season that has been consistently cool, while every other season is consistently above average.