frostfern

Does anyone know where I can find the 3PM sounding before the tornado? Also archived local mesoanalysis at a similar time. I'm making my own writeup.

I remember looking at the radar. I was watching the cell for about 45 minutes. It seemed like there was some contamination of the velocity field from birds or something at one point. It was hard to read. They usually don't issue a tornado warning until they see evidence of a strong circulation near the ground. I recall the circulation was evident a few scans before the tornado warning went out, but it was fairly broad looking. I have seen many similar looking circulations that produced minor RFD wind damage but never produced a proper tornado. I do feel that given the classic look of the cell and the path of the circulation towards a populated area, they could have put out the warning a little earlier and risked a false alarm. It's a tough call though. Hindsight is 20/20. I think I will download the full radar loop.

I think I ate at the Culver's that got wrecked three years ago.

I made the right decision. I saw how fast the predicted storm motion was. I didn't have a partner/driver. I'm not going to chase tornadic storms moving at 55 mph through the woods alone. Need AT LEAST two people in the vehicle.

The terrain goes from 580 feet elevation near Traverse City to 1350 feet at Gaylord. That amount of elevation gain was enough to hold back the marine layer (like a dam) and tap much greater surface instability as the storm moved inland. This allowed the elevated circulation to intensify and dig down to the surface.

The clear air CGs are impressive. Also looks like significant hail again. Too bad its in the middle of the woods.

Guess its good Im not there. It moved dangerously fast through a lot of trees. Hard to find an escape if caught.

Its looks bad news. I saw a debris signature.

Monster circulation headed straight for Gaylord. I didn’t go.

I’ve given up on chasing. Cells will be moving NE way too fast.

I have only heard one semi-close lightning strike this season. Late April I think. All it does is drizzle lately.

Almost everywhere in Michigan is crappy chasing territory. I will not drive under any core. In the past I drove up behind a small core and picked some 2" stones off the ground for pictures. Honestly, watching a squall line come in off Lake Michigan is usually what constitutes a good "chase" for me. It just hasn't happened this year so far.

I don't think anything will get to the thumb until after dark. I need to see what SPC is saying tomorrow.

What do y’all think of the chance for supercells tomorrow afternoon over Lower Michigan. Im thinking of driving up to Gaylord as the higher terrain seems more likely to break the cap. I’m thinking if something can get going it has the chance of dropping plains-style hail which is rare around here. It could also be a cap bust though.

A training t-storm event seems possible for SE Lower MI Friday night into Saturday. The wind field is almost parallel to the front and instability will linger all night and into Saturday morning where the dewpoints are pooled up along the front. The models all trended towards the front slowing down and stalling.

Most likely for me too. These strong EML caps don't break over Lake Michigan during the afternoon. The convection will probably happen after dark to the SE because the front slows down.

It's nice that spring finally came after summer.

The timing is bad for me as is usually the case. Typical Michigan. I pray to at least get SOME rain.

The issue is the timing of the front and convection and/or debris ahead of it.

Traverse City is a terrain-induced hot spot whenever the wind is SE. It's normally only about 3 degrees warmer though. It's strange as the lapse rate would have to be super-adiabatic on the extreme end to get 6 degrees warmer than Gaylord (based on elevation alone), but it has happened before. It's kind of a meteorological mystery to me how that city can get so toasty.

The dewpoints crashed from above 70 yesterday afternoon into the low 40s this afternoon. 87 was the high both yesterday and today, so no temperature change. Just went from tropical warmth to semi-arid warmth. It seems like the mid-Michigan backdoor dryline is a new climate feature as of late.

The first two I hardly noticed anything. This third one gave me a fever, dizziness, and upset stomach similar to when I had covid after thanksgiving, just without any cough or runny nose.

Gross.