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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    I can see towering clouds on the far SE horizon. It’s been a while since I’ve seen thunderheads on the horizon. A nice little echo S of Lansing.
  2. frostfern
    You don’t even need 60+ dews this time of year.
  3. frostfern
    January was wet, but the long term recovery isn’t complete. My pond is coming back some now with the snowmelt but it’s still low.
  4. frostfern
    Local water levels are REALLY low here even with some snow melt now. I have former ponds in my area that are now meadows.
  5. frostfern
    Lots of 1-2” snowfalls consisting entirely of dendrite aggregates seems to inflate totals because of extremely low water content. It counts, but it really doesn’t feel like as much as the numbers indicate.
  6. frostfern
    It’s been a good year for lake enhanced clippers. Just not any big 24 hour totals outside the prime like effect zones.
  7. frostfern
    Severe or snow?
  8. frostfern
    When it’s mild there isn’t enough instability to generate showers so the moisture from the lakes just sits in a uniform layer doing nothing. In a cold lake effect pattern there’s usually sunbreaks between bands and when the wind shifts less onshore. Also, the small bit of Pacific moisture aloft makes it harder for the stratus to evaporate from the top like it can with a bone dry arctic airmass above it. This is my explanation.
  9. frostfern
    How is a random stranger to know? As for toughness, how would you know? You run away from the cold.
  10. frostfern
    Just stick to the larger cities.
  11. frostfern
    My parents are in the northwest part of the country and the nightly Papagayo wind storms have been relentless and strong enough to take down trees. It’s a weird regional gusty wind that peaks at night.
  12. frostfern
    You mean Beavis? Almost as sick that one member that enjoying heat waves and complains about thunderstorms knocking down afternoon highs. That’s just demented.
  13. frostfern
    By that time I will be hoping for winter to be over.
  14. frostfern
    For 2026 IMBY, holy sh*t YES. Lake Enhanced Clippers are back in force after being oddly missing in action the last few years. Its not that I wouldn’t prefer some sharing of wealth on the synoptic scale.
  15. frostfern
    There were some serious convective squalls this morning. Big dry spaces between bands, but very heavy when you’re under one.
  16. frostfern
    A sudden switch to Pacific flood pattern would put most of this sub on suicide watch.
  17. frostfern
    The problem is more not having much to look forward to in this pattern. Especially anyone not in a lake belt. I’d rather be teased by a phantom storm in the long range than see absolutely nothing.
  18. frostfern
    Somewhere near Rockford unofficially got down to -25. Big Rapids got down to -27. Cadillac -31. It seems the small amounts of fog and moisture that hung out in lower areas held temps a little higher. Urban heat island might have affected things too. More exhaust moisture maybe.
  19. frostfern
    I feel like it could have gotten colder without pesky moisture hanging around and clouds moving overhead in the morning. There’s a surprising amount of terrain effects too as it’s not totally flat here. Places just a couple hundred feet higher had much lower dewpoints and fell way down into the mid -20s.
  20. frostfern
    GRR is sitting at -16. Daily record is -20. All time is -24. There’s some -20s showing up in more rural areas nearby though. It seems like higher dewpoints are holding temperatures higher some places. It’s hard to get extreme lows here in West Michigan as normally westerly flow off the lake doesn’t diminish until the coldest core of 850 temps has passed. This is kind of a rare setup where the 850 cold pool is stalling directly overhead with light winds.
  21. frostfern
    Big Rapids is already down to -20 at midnight. MBY is -15 with 8 more hours of darkness. Only high clouds could screw it up.
  22. frostfern
    So you would be happy with 3 one inch dusters in December followed by two months of arctic CAD and maybe a duster or two to offset sublimation? Just keep a steady 3 inches with zero melting. Stay below 15F so no melting on roads or dirty looking snow.
  23. frostfern
    What’s crazy is they did go through the effort to slightly change the shape and location of the overly large blob each time.
  24. frostfern
    It’s the type of weather to be on the lookout for optical phenomenon you normally only see out the airplane window.
  25. frostfern
    You only need about 3” to cover most grass blades and be in “looks like winter” territory.
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