Harry Perry

Even though these are WAA rain showers, it’s still cooling the surface and limiting the destabilization, at least up here in the eastern portion of the enhanced risk. Forecast high was expected to be 89° today. We have stopped at 81° and don’t see any clear indication of the temp rising this afternoon/evening with the several hours of stratiform rain approaching from the west. SPC and GRR both uncertain of the extent of the WWA rain this afternoon too. I’d say the event around here to be a little more of an isolated threat for this evening. Better chances west of Lake Michigan.

From GRR this morning -- Widespread freeze possible record lows Saturday-- As we have been writing about for over a week now, the upper level flow brings us air that is currently over the Arctic Circle. The 500 mb heights fall to near 535 m, which suggest (long story) but highs should not get much over 40. All of the ensemble and long range models continue to forecast lows Saturday morning from around 20 north to the mid 20s near and east of US-131. This would be a killing freeze if it happens. Sunday morning may be nearly as cold too. -- Next system Sun/Monday ????-- As I suggested yesterday, the upper low that brings us the cold air rotates around brings another shortwave from the northern stream into our area Sunday or Monday (depending on which model you choose or which version of which model you choose). The 00z run of the ECMWF is now bringing the system farther north, like the GFS did yesterday and continues to do today. That would bring rain and snow into the area Sunday or Monday. Given this is a northern stream system, it would not have Gulf moisture so precipitation amounts would be less than a 1/4 inch. Still, if it were to snow Sunday night we could see 2 to 4 inches on grass areas by Monday morning. Handy.

Second half of May (roughly from the 14th through Memorial Day) has the sub firmly in the heat and juice with several rounds of strong storms. Kinda funny, it shows highs in the 40’s and 50’s for most of us, then on the 15th, we just flip the switch to 80’s lol. Typical. But don’t get too excited, the eastern trough comes back in by the beginning of June similar to the first half of May, but thats to chew the fat on when that next bout of “why the **** do I live here again?” Comes in.

Well I see May is a dumpster fire. Warmer than normal winter followed by a cooler than normal 4th (5th)? Lost count - winter.

Intriguing setup around these parts later this evening. Will be interesting to see it unfold.

Have about 2” here and only flurries at the moment. Had a decent band this morning and nothing really since.. but as usual this year - the heaviest snow was to come this afternoon - and poof. The models really had a hard time with this one lol.

Exactly 1” here as well.

Baby steps.

Have a feeling this will end up being a sloppy mess for nearly everyone involved (not everyone). Models struggling with track and amounts - that tells me that it’s going to be a low end - long duration event with many times where it isn’t snowing and instead is melting... wouldn’t hold fire to it. 2-4” looks solid around here with the majority falling between 9pm Tuesday night through about 1pm Wednesday. What. A. Mess.

For real

Bill Marino with GRR posted an update about an hour ago... the bleed continues. “I also adjusted the POP for Tuesday during the day. From the latest model runs I do not see much if any precipitation during the day time hours of Tuesday. It seems to this forecaster that the storm on Wed may be father to the east as it now seems the upper wave on the southern stream will take a little longer to phase with the northern stream wave. We will have to see how this plays out. I do not plan to change any headlines.”

Can’t believe how terribly the models have handled this system. 00z shall be interesting.

To my surprise GRR goes with a Winter Storm Watch... surely this will end up being a 2-4” incher (isolated 6” here and there) over the period of roughly 36 hours. Confidence = 60% of the time, it works every time.

“Are you reeling in the years (yeilds)”

Hey this isn’t necessarily a bad thing...