Harry Perry

Members
  • Content Count

    732
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Harry Perry

  1. Even though these are WAA rain showers, it’s still cooling the surface and limiting the destabilization, at least up here in the eastern portion of the enhanced risk. Forecast high was expected to be 89° today. We have stopped at 81° and don’t see any clear indication of the temp rising this afternoon/evening with the several hours of stratiform rain approaching from the west. SPC and GRR both uncertain of the extent of the WWA rain this afternoon too. I’d say the event around here to be a little more of an isolated threat for this evening. Better chances west of Lake Michigan.
  2. From GRR this morning -- Widespread freeze possible record lows Saturday-- As we have been writing about for over a week now, the upper level flow brings us air that is currently over the Arctic Circle. The 500 mb heights fall to near 535 m, which suggest (long story) but highs should not get much over 40. All of the ensemble and long range models continue to forecast lows Saturday morning from around 20 north to the mid 20s near and east of US-131. This would be a killing freeze if it happens. Sunday morning may be nearly as cold too. -- Next system Sun/Monday ????-- As I suggested yesterday, the upper low that brings us the cold air rotates around brings another shortwave from the northern stream into our area Sunday or Monday (depending on which model you choose or which version of which model you choose). The 00z run of the ECMWF is now bringing the system farther north, like the GFS did yesterday and continues to do today. That would bring rain and snow into the area Sunday or Monday. Given this is a northern stream system, it would not have Gulf moisture so precipitation amounts would be less than a 1/4 inch. Still, if it were to snow Sunday night we could see 2 to 4 inches on grass areas by Monday morning. Handy.
  3. Second half of May (roughly from the 14th through Memorial Day) has the sub firmly in the heat and juice with several rounds of strong storms. Kinda funny, it shows highs in the 40’s and 50’s for most of us, then on the 15th, we just flip the switch to 80’s lol. Typical. But don’t get too excited, the eastern trough comes back in by the beginning of June similar to the first half of May, but thats to chew the fat on when that next bout of “why the **** do I live here again?” Comes in.
  4. Well I see May is a dumpster fire. Warmer than normal winter followed by a cooler than normal 4th (5th)? Lost count - winter.
  5. Intriguing setup around these parts later this evening. Will be interesting to see it unfold.
  6. Have about 2” here and only flurries at the moment. Had a decent band this morning and nothing really since.. but as usual this year - the heaviest snow was to come this afternoon - and poof. The models really had a hard time with this one lol.
  7. Have a feeling this will end up being a sloppy mess for nearly everyone involved (not everyone). Models struggling with track and amounts - that tells me that it’s going to be a low end - long duration event with many times where it isn’t snowing and instead is melting... wouldn’t hold fire to it. 2-4” looks solid around here with the majority falling between 9pm Tuesday night through about 1pm Wednesday. What. A. Mess.
  8. Bill Marino with GRR posted an update about an hour ago... the bleed continues. “I also adjusted the POP for Tuesday during the day. From the latest model runs I do not see much if any precipitation during the day time hours of Tuesday. It seems to this forecaster that the storm on Wed may be father to the east as it now seems the upper wave on the southern stream will take a little longer to phase with the northern stream wave. We will have to see how this plays out. I do not plan to change any headlines.”
  9. Can’t believe how terribly the models have handled this system. 00z shall be interesting.
  10. To my surprise GRR goes with a Winter Storm Watch... surely this will end up being a 2-4” incher (isolated 6” here and there) over the period of roughly 36 hours. Confidence = 60% of the time, it works every time.
  11. Around an inch looking like a lock around here according to the uncle.. (Long duration inch at that).
  12. My local office (GRR) throwing out operational guidance - saying high res is the way to go with this one. Not correctly handing the energy out west early on. edit: Nothing quite like a French tickler so close to Valentine’s Day lol
  13. Ended up with 3” of snow here... pouring sleet and freezing rain at the the moment. Light glaze on everything. 24°.
  14. GRR staying with the advisory calling for a “general 4-8” with most of it falling by 10:00 am Saturday. General? More “significant” when it’s not common for the current season or last for that matter haha.
  15. GRR saying “hold your horses.” .DISCUSSION...(Today through Next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 -- Wet and heavier snow to fall Friday night into Saturday for most of the area -- The area remains on track to see a impactful snowfall tonight and Saturday morning. With this in mind, we will be holding on to the Winter Weather Advisory as is for this forecast package. After a quiet day in which we just see clouds thicken up, and winds increase a bit, a fairly robust of snow is expected to move in after dark, and persist into Saturday. This snow will be the result of a very strong push of moisture coming in via a 70 knot low level jet nosing up into the area. The peak snowfall rates should come after 06z tonight and last until around, or just after 12z Saturday. We are looking at potential inch/hour snow rates of a more wet and heavy snow with lower snow-liquid ratios. This snow will obviously cause issues with the roads, and could cause some power outages as the snow could weigh down power lines and snap tree limbs. The snow should then let up in intensity on Saturday, and will likely even change to a wintry mix, and then rain/drizzle for areas along and south of I-96. This happens for a couple of reasons. The first reason is the surface low will come up into the area, and bring a brief shot of warmer air. This will come in aloft first, and could bring a brief bout of some freezing rain. This should not be a problem for roads falling on top of snow. Also, the deeper moisture will peel away, and could end up as some drizzle as the dgz becomes unsaturated.
  16. Hilarity ensues as we get closer to the event, the plumes that we’re once all tight-knit around 5” are now all over the place (from less than an inch to 12”).
  17. I thought the same. My bet is they change their tone a bit with a different forecaster by the mid-morning/afternoon forecast package. 3-5” seems like a lock, but they should definitely stress 6” or more locally is possible IMO, especially since this will be the biggest snowfall since November.
  18. I agree.. just an odd graphic. Almost like they are trying to keep it cool in lieu of the last system.
  19. I see my local office is getting ready to let the public down again haha. Hard to believe that graphic isn’t from a previous system - because I see no models showing what they’re predicting.