Harry Perry

Despite what the models are showing on ice... it will be marginal at best. Heavy rates (Likely end up as sleet), marginal temps (31-32°), high wind, time of day... all will make it hard accrete what is modeled. Still worth watching though.

Insert eye-roll here..

Ahh.. this time of the year is the best. Cold nights in the 20’s and days in the 30’s.. until a storm system moves in and we stick on the warm side of it time and time again. One word for the outlook of December, “Dank”.

Only thing keeping this from being a low end warning criteria snow around here is the warm ground. Maybe we can get some good rates to overcome some of this, but we shall see.

Checked medium/long range, instantly thought the same... haha

Give it time.. fwiw long range GFS has us cold and CFS (lol) have us in heavy winter jackets fighting an arctic blast on Halloween haha.

Several short range runs showing explosive development around 00z tonight.. fortunately the MCS has weakened to the point where the atmosphere should remain untapped over this way, but later on I’m trying to find what the models are seeing that’s driving explosive development along the boundary other than the LLJ.

Have a strange suspicion of a stagnant stationary boundary sitting just south of the MI/IN/OH/IL border in coming days/weeks. You know.. the kind that keeps it miserable and in the 50’s with low clouds and rain on the north side, meanwhile 50 miles south it’s sunny and 80? Yeah.. I can feel some of that garbage coming... (and see it becoming more persistent on the models). No ******* thanks. I understand it has to set up somewhere, but it always sets up in the same spot every year. Gets old. Bring on summer.