Harry Perry

From IWX... While no upgrade in headlines was done in the NE areas, potential does still exist for a quarter inch or more of ice. Per discussion with GRR/DTX/CLE have held off for the time being. Will look at closer for afternoon package, but most likely will pass off to the evening shift to monitor trends.

Agreed. Temps aren’t looking like they’ll get AOA freezing for too long by much of the guidance - and a lot of the precip falling will be a lighter nature over a longer period of time. Between that and temps being in the mid to upper 20’s for you all the way this way, I’m growing increasingly concerned for the potential of some serious impacts from this system.

Was just going to say that haha.

This whole freezing rain thing around here can stop anytime now haha. So close to the kitchen sink I can smell the soap.

Fortunately the temp here is 34~35° even though local station says 32°. Regardless it looks we will stay just warm enough here for rain throughout the night. Lightning off to the NW and SW of me.

Fortunately if the rain falls that fast it’s extremely hard to have decent accretion - so that’s a plus on the ice accums part for many in the sub. Hoping to get into some of what you got over there - wouldn’t mind some thunder and lightning to go with my ice.

GRR holds off on a warning as well while mentioning much more significant qpf amounts and possible accums reaching .75”.. their reasoning is due to major uncertainties on where the most precip will fall as well as limited wind thus impacts shouldn’t be too bad - plus with the surface temp rising tomorrow morning the ice will melt rather quickly. My take on it is simple - there will be impacts during the Wednesday morning commute and the possibility of a third of an inch of ice. Regardless of the wind - there will be power outages, accidents and in some cases major disruptions in commerce.

Boy... 12z HRDPS must’ve had a rough night

At least the western half of Calhoun county will be the cut off from prolific ice storm to nothing haha

Drove from BC to Three Rivers then to Jenison (just outside of Grand Rapids). Roads were terrible in BC. Subsided as I entered St. Joseph county.. got to Three Rivers and WAA took hold. Temps rose from 18° to 35° within 30 minutes. Got onto 131NB and watched the temps fall with freezing rain turning to drizzle and sleet as I approached Grand Rapids. Temperature is now 17° with a nice gusty east wind north of the low pressure center that’s headed your way. What a system.

Hey at least we finally got a WSW... after the snow was done

Speaking of TWC - they just upped my totals to 1-3” tonight and 6-10” tomorrow haha. Gotta love TWC.

We are at 7° over here - HRRR says we should be 14° at the current hour.

Still feeling optimistic for 4-7” here with additional from lake effect after the initial front-end thump, especially matching current guidance with radar over MN. Not saying a more southern/moisture-laden system is out of the question - I sure wouldn’t mind it but it doesn’t seem likely.

Really close to blizzard criteria... wouldn’t be surprised to see someone upgraded - especially near the lake shore.

18z GFS definitely a “spread the wealth” for many.

Looks roughly the same for southern Michigan and half of a county further south in Northern Illinois from what I can see.

18z NAM looks to dig south but then hits the turn signal over DVN and shoots NE. Looks like the low will end up north of GRR here this run.

This. One step in the right direction is the models trending further away from the mid 30’s and more so into the upper 20’s to lower 30’s (depending on area).

If you look at all the members and their SLP track and precipitation shield - you wouldn’t believe how much this low pressure is waivering around. Certainly not your normal every day low pressure. Most do have the low riding along the IL/WI border and then along the I-94 corridor ending up north of Detroit. One thing is for certain. It will snow and it’ll be heavy for a few hours.

Can you imagine if the 12z GEM verified? Haha less is more and more is less!

Reviewing 12z data including short range ensembles and SREF plumes... really thinking it’s going to be tough to get more than 2-5” out of this for areas east of and south of I-69 due to the dry slot unless this pulls a fast one and is further south. However... this isn’t your average storm. And I should also add that there is absolutely no consensus on the SREF plumes - literally shows anything from 0.5” to 12.5” with no tightening to show a slight agreement. NWS’s have their work cut out for them again on this one.

00z Euro keeps it cooler longer across the I-94 corridor all the way to Chicago - we get about 90% of our snowfall on the front end with temps in the teens to near 20° before warming to near freezing for a couple of hours. Would help keep ratios high if that happens.

Valid now through Tuesday from GRR.

Have to hand it to GRR... at least they issued a WSW for a third of the CWA lol. Just don’t get their thinking. 12z Euro continued to be a share the wealth for many. Will be interesting to see how long it holds out with the southern track.