Harry Perry

Good call. I’d expect roughly the same over this way. Watch roughly from the I-96 corridor south including Clinton and Gratiot counties with 5-9” totals with locally higher amounts and the mention of a brief onset of sleet/freezing rain in the southern zones before changing to all snow.

Came up with this. Pretty impressive spread.

This. Truer words never spoken.

First time I’ve personally witnessed plumes this high clustered between 12-25”

Good lookin out… Smells like hopes & dreams in here

Currently sitting at a strip club drinking a Michelob Ultra waiting to see the next model suite.. literally.

Guess we’ll see what happens in the next 24. Unique event nevertheless. Usually waiting on a sub-990mb surface low to bring us a storm like this.

Still makes for some good

This. What are we missing here..

Well at least we’ve got the RAP and HRRR

That’s probably the best way to look at it honestly. Most of our snow would come from Tuesday night - Wednesday and very little if anything more after that. Looking at some of 12z operational guidance SLP/Radar make this look like more of a one day storm.

Man! What a change between 00z and 12z GFS. Some places went from 0” to 17.5” in southern Indiana. 50-75 mile jumps to keep us on the edge.

I would imagine that is going to happen eventually.. totals are more inline at 10:1 while everyone keeps posting Kuchera ratios. How much will they come down is the question. Willing to bet someone will end up with a foot (maybe a little more) out of this before all is said and done.

I will say one of our better forecasters WDM (Bill Marino) wrote an excellent forecast discussion this afternoon regarding the upcoming system(s).

GRR “Little to no snow expected”. Interesting orientation of the heaviest snow axis…

GRR completely throwing the storm away that affects 75% of the CWA 72 hours out.. might not end up with an advisory at all, just 6-10” of snow haha. Even the EURO they’re riding to the grave shows appreciable snows across 50% of their CWA so their statement in this mornings AFD just shows how erroneous certain forecasters can be if it doesn’t affect their backyard.

Well said. Even if current forecast amounts were slashed in half it would still be a significant snow/ice for someone within the forum.

Suspect that GRR will issue an advisory for 8-12” for most around here … Looking at the CIPS analogs, 15 top matches. A few pretty good ones too.

Science.. we don’t care about that.

Looks like a pretty solid 4-6 incher around here, might end up with some isolated 7-8” in some spots but a very nice snow to welcome in the new year. SREF plumes trending upward with a mean just shy of 6” with a few over 8”.

After reading GRR’s AFD this morning, I couldn’t help but chuckle. They must lurk in these forums… - Snow still expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning - We are in the time frame (beyond 24 hrs from the event) where a watch issuance would be expected if it was warranted. At this time it does not seem warranted based on the latest guidance. Advisory and Warning decisions are typically made in the 12 to 30 hour time frame and we are moving into that zone today. We will likely make headline decisions (warnings or advisories) later today. Given the onset of snow is in the afternoon on Saturday we will likely make the headline decisions this afternoon. So, no headlines will be issued on this shift. Upstream offices are sticking with their watches, so even upstream where precipitation begins earlier they are sticking with the current headlines. Bottom line is we think this continues to look like a solid advisory for much of our area and potentially high end advisory over portions of the south half of our forecast area. If we are expecting advisories, which we are, watches are not warranted.

This is about the time the 00z model suite comes in with weenie amounts, just to trickle back down to reality just before the event begins. One can wish.. right?

It gets old. Many times in years past, model output would show 6-8” sometimes even as much as 10” inches of snow within a 24 hour period. Never a watch issued, only an advisory within 6-10 hours of the snow beginning. Snow starts, gets heavy… causes severe disruption in travel/commerce… GRR decides to upgrade select counties to a warning as the snow is ending.. that’s right ENDING. Has happened nearly every time. One time it never happened, just ended up with 7” of snow in about 10 hours with only an advisory. Really makes me scratch my head. I don’t get it. Seems the days of a Winter Storm Watch 24-48 hours out turning to a warning 12-24 hours out are long gone around here, and citizen’s always state “i didn’t know we were going to get this much snow!”, “Its terrible out there, who forecasted this?” right in the middle of the event. Coming from a safety standpoint, it’s unacceptable. Warn the public. “Roll the maps”.

Outlier.

Same!