Harry Perry

Wagons west.

Really need to get some instability over here.. still socked in with thick low-level clouds. 14z HRRR out to lunch on current convection. 15z has it but doesn’t look to handle it all.

Didn’t rain here last night, but with strong southerly flow the modified air has settled in here. Dew points were briefly in the upper 50’s this morning, but have only slightly increased to 63° imby at the moment with a stern 15-20mph southerly wind. 18z guidance not handling the surface moisture at all. Plumes all showing 70-74° surface dpoints at the current hour. SB instability obviously not materializing as expected across southern lower Michigan so that’s probably why the slight makes that turn SE, betting that the strongest storms ride that gradient further south and most convection will weaken quickly this side of the lake tonight.

Had nothing to 45kft tops develop overhead and drop about 10-15 close CG’s.. moved south now we’re getting no rain, but a constant loud rumble and lots of intracloud lightning. Didn’t expect that to materialize, wondering if more will develop and ride the gradient SE. Seeing some development mid lake at the moment.

Same. Had one rumbler about a month ago. Outside of that, nothing.

Yes, thanks OHweather for the discussion and analysis. Great information. Will definitely be interesting to watch everything evolve tonight/tomorrow.

00z HRRR backed off on the squall threat locally. Shows one round of isolated storms around 8pm and another round firing up along the warm front riding southeast (training) around midnight.

This kinda smells of 5/29/2011.. nasty derecho followed by 90’s with no power.

Should make for an interesting afternoon.

Tomorrow afternoon/evening trying to sneak up on us. RAP/NAM show some intriguing soundings with storms firing along the warm front near I-65 northeast to roughly the MI/IN border.

Mid range/long range solutions backing off on the cooling trend for next week. Was looking like a week or so of 60’s but Euro/GFS has trended toward more 70’s and only one day of 60’s.

Just got to Sarasota Florida yesterday and we head back next Wednesday.. safe to say that we’re bringing summer with us. Not seeing much in the long range showing a pattern flip back to cold either. Very nice signal, and as I kind of figured - we’ll go from 50’s right to 80’s with a flip of a switch.

True. One good caveat to this prolonged cool spell. The switch to summer will likely be overnight (or seem to be) this year. We’ll be saying “remember last Monday when it was snowing and 34°?” While it’s 85° under full sun and dew points in the 60’s the following Monday. One can wonder anyway.

Funny you should mention that…

I can tolerate bouts of colder weather, but one day (maybe 2, if we’re lucky) of average temperatures followed by 5-7 days of 20-30° below average temps is just brutal.

GFS showing 30’s for highs throughout the beginning of May. Old habits die hard.

Ended up with 3” of pixie dust here. Some drifting close to a foot in spots. Nice little system.

Two perfect names for future forecast models… 06z POS and PUNT coming in hot.

This storm will certainly be feast of famine for some, who is yet to be determined. I feel for the Mets/NWS in times like these. What a mess to sort through.

This, this is impressive.

Cold front is moving a bit quicker than previously thought.. at this rate Flat Rock to Adrian point south is in line for 3-5”

Those rates would be niiiiice. I’m 33 and think the biggest system I can recall is GHDII. Seems like there were big ones all the time when I was young, but when you’re only 3’ tall… doesn’t take much to have snow up to your knees. But yeah, this system… this one is exciting. Loved how GRR stated this to be a high end advisory yesterday, yet issued a warning today and will likely bust (unless these short range ensembles are correct). They’ll never issue a watch or warning here again. Ever.

I remember this. This was one of the events I remembered. The other was 2005-6ish. Dry air infiltration completely demolished the deformation zone snows with a sharp cut-off. Literally nothing but virga and a sharp NE wind.

Seems like this didn’t happen as much growing up, but I remember a few times where 6-10” was forecast and woke up to less than a dusting on the ground.

I don’t know… this smells like a bust around here.