Harry Perry

That was just for you brother. Can’t see it any other way.

Snow has begun here.

Been under moderate/heavy returns for going on 3 hours now with not a single snow flake at the surface and a hellacious east wind. Feels like an impending bust, especially if the rain/snow line makes it here before we finally get anything at the surface.

GRR just put out this graphic. Very reasonable and in-check totals it would appear. Differs entirely from the point and click forecasts and everyone on Facebook is having a meltdown over it. Love to see it.

The differences among the models this close to the event is downright ridiculous. Some of the short range guidance is still over-doing the warm tongue aloft, while others don’t have it at all creating massive differences in snowfall. It would make the most sense considering the strength of the slp to draw in warmer air at the surface (33-35°) while the low passes nearly overhead here and to the east, with that, there will be rapidly dropping temps on the backside of the low drawing in much colder air at the mid levels and the surface as it moves northeast. If this thing suppresses a little quicker, colder air will be realized sooner thus more snow. At the end of the day it’s really a crapshoot but around here I’d expect the snow to mix with rain for at least a few hours tomorrow late afternoon and to pinpoint any accumulation depends on how much rain actually does occur.

Gotta love it. Nice having you in here!

You and I both. There’s such a wide range of possibilities with this it’s ridiculous. GFS has been very consistent with this system, but wouldn’t mind a bump southeast. HRRR and other short range guidance giving us another cold Eurythmics special.

In house model? Or is it the GRAF model?

Crazy how there’s over a week of consistency followed by a 200+ mile NW trend inside of 48 hours. Twice.

That map gives me flashbacks of a few days ago for today.

Excellent consistency. This solution screams mixing/dry-slotting issues for pretty much all the areas that got shafted today as well. Will be sampled tomorrow, should give us a better picture on what’s going to transpire, LOTS of moving pieces with this. One thing for certain, GRR will issue an advisory regardless of the outcome.

Kinda has that look to it honestly.

Similar to today, but a little closer/better than 10:1

Ironically enough mine just set off the “low sensor battery” about an hour ago as well.

I agree, end of the week looks impressive for us. My point was - in typical GRR fashion, we will be last to jump on the bandwagon for headlines until the event is damn near underway or nearly over - for the first appreciable snowfall of the season.

Already am. Old trends die hard.

Makes sense considering the spread. Chances of an outlier verifying are relatively low.

Anyone notice the 12z HRRR? Maybe I’m late to the game but… final image of the run 12z Tuesday. 980 with lowering heights directly east. Moving nearly ENE through central Missouri into south central Illinois.

Kind of a crapshoot around these parts. Hoping later in the week brings something a little more noteworthy. Will be fun to watch the evolution of this storm though.

This storm is nothing but high hopes and dreams. Head over to - Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion and check the storm out after…

We’re still 4/5 days out. Too early to be throwing any solution out yet.

We are still SO far out - no one should have any expectations yet. It is nice to finally have something to watch though, and to have weenie maps is pure lust.

I could certainly see a redux of that storm being the outcome with this one if thermals are marginal.