Harry Perry
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Everything posted by Harry Perry
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Severe weather down south robbing moisture transport north.
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00z GEFS is a thing of beauty. Sub 990 near Cleveland at 12z Sunday. Nearly Blizzard criteria (35mph gusts for at least 3 hours & 1/4 Visability).
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Had roughly 3” here as well. Maybe 3.5”. If I say 4” my wife will say I’m man measuring, again.
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Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here
Harry Perry replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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Edit* 1.5” here. Just went out to the board and measured. Can still see the grass in spots.
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Man, snowed enough to wet the roads here and has died right out. Lots of dry slots opening up to the southwest. How come when we get these systems at 33° it rains, steady and hard for 12-18 hours… but when it’s cold enough for snow - poof.
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Been busy wrenching today, I always come here before looking at guidance to take the edge off of the let down I’ll have when I see all the guidance showing 1-2”. From what I’m reading, still sounds like a shit sandwich. Hopefully we can juice up just a little bit to ease the pain. 3-5” here sounds promising, for now.
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Oh man, we’re rooting for the NAM… what have we done
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Well this went off the rails fast. Moisture is just not there. PWAT/low pressure/defo band all getting smaller and smaller and on 06z models even getting that more scattered look. 3-5” with isolated 6” further east looking more realistic as of now.
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I wouldn’t put much stock into the NAM quite yet, especially with that disorganized look. Just doesn’t make sense, almost like it took in bad data.
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Yeah, I wouldn’t make a map either. Contradicts their verbiage lol.
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Man some of those really suck too for the southern/eastern Michigan side. Chicago is the place to be no doubt.
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Ratios will be everything with this system. Pretty impressive when it nearly doubles totals. 18z Euro 10:1 vs. 18z Euro Kuchera Ratio (also note the higher totals for DTX on 10:1 vs Kuchera and the limited but notable lake enhancement from Milwaukee down to the southern ORD burbs.) Detroit concrete special incoming.
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18z EPS 10:1 Mean - will likely end up 15:1 or a little better further NW. 18z RGEM 10:1 getting Detroit back into the game.
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I forgot what office mentioned it in their AFD, but the majority AFO’s are favoring the NAM as it’s historically better with these types of systems on predicting the WAA. Ultimately, they are expecting the warm air to push further north than what the other global guidance is showing. All while my local office mentions this “low track is favorable for a classic CWA wide warning snowfall” (except for Calhoun & Jackson counties of course, but to hell with them, IWX or DTX can have them) lol.
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4-6” is what looks most probable from you to me and everywhere in between. Probably some isolated 8” spots - unless we keep drying out.
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Sometimes you just have to laugh.
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I knew it! In all seriousness though I hope you’re doing well and healing up. Spinal surgery is no joke.
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Everyone’s favorite SREF plumes. One member has 48° so bit of an exaggeration on my end. Actually quite a few in the 40-45° range though. Granted, watching these models at 72 out hell even 3 hours out is normally comical.
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This is so NAM like. Keeps our reality in check but at this point is an outlier. I’d expect it to settle back southeast with time. Fun fact, I never listen to them, but some WRF/NMMB members show 50°+ with plain rain for the majority of the event here, so could be worse
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First watches hoisted for most of Kansas.
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I agree with this. Lots of consensus on ensembles, almost a lock for much of the sub on 3-6” for several runs now.
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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Harry Perry replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Emotions are just running high due to the lack of better quality winter weather and it’s hard to read people on here because they’re all about facts and less about being personable. It’s been a shitty winter with no end in sight. Good reason to kick the ball and talk about it IMO. -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Harry Perry replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
6.7” on the weenie map but realistically 3” (until 06z when it disappears).
