Harry Perry
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Everything posted by Harry Perry
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Until Saturday. Looks like we’re headed back to the hills with high heat indices for the weekend into the beginning of next week.
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Generally speaking from heat-waves in the past with dews that high, the temps seem to under-perform a bit around here. Be interesting to see if that will happen this time around, especially after this deluge.
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Yeah, it’s getting that 06z HRRR messy look. Have a couple of cells that have popped to the SW of here, but they’re behaving. Also another weakening sign, infrequent intra-cloud lightning with soft thunder. Sounds like one of those noise makers for sleeping.
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We’re on the compression stroke. It’s coming. Heavy sun here and 85°
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Wouldn’t be surprised by a trim of the northward most ENH based off MOST of the short range guidance. Just looks messy (with some embedded rotating updrafts) Better environment south of the MI/IN/OH border this afternoon.
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Especially after Friday and we get into the heat-dome with nocturnal MCS. Cue some Johnny C.
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Goguac Lake in Battle Creek. All-sport lake. Good fishing. Little bit of everything and walking distance from home.
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I don’t know about all of that, but I do know that I’m enjoying one above normal day on the lake today before the weather turns to shit for the rest of the foreseeable future.
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Frosty start here this morning at 35°. Coldest I remember for the start of met summer. Also see the high temps backed down several degrees for this week. One 80° day looks likely Tuesday now. Should stay pretty comfortable for the first week of June.
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Spring 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
How. The entire state has had SO much rain, especially mid Michigan. The ground is literally saturated. Next weeks “heat-wave” getting shorter and shorter per some guidance. Would end the week into the weekend with mid 50’s, rain and another upper level low lol. Even some Saharan dust (more mud rain). -
This shit is for the birds. Hopefully Memorial Day turns out.
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Yeah I feel like it’s going to be way more scattered this way. 23z HRRR vs. actual imagery is no where near the same. Everything is further north and south. Granted there will be outflows that will probably blow some storms overhead (which could be more of a bad thing really, just less coverage). There’s a tongue of mid level moisture working in from the southwest right now that might also fire some storms around the Gary/South Bend area, along the LLJ with available cape should blossom, but time will tell.
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Trends between 20z and 22z would also agree, the tail is further and further north with each run. May end up with nothing here as well. Big bust potential.
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Not sure if I ever recall this for MBY. Impressive to say the least.
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Yikes, going to be a wild ride this evening. Someone’s going to end up with monster hail out of this setup.
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High-end enhanced. Surprised they didn’t go moderate, but makes sense.
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Yeah, kinda looks like good bust potential here. If the 12z HRRR comes to fruition, and there is little/no storm action off to the southwest allowing decent venting/tapping warm moist air riding along the tail of trailing convection, there could be a monster sup somewhere in the area. Big IF. But the potential is there.
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I’d usually complain about this pattern, but we need the rain incredibly bad. This should at least help the southern portion of lower Michigan and much of Indiana and Ohio with drought conditions.
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Could’ve swore that was one of my kids on our lake at first glance haha (also 3 blocks from my house). We don’t get too many nice glass days, it’s always windy and cold, or windy and hot with tons of wake from all the boats. Awesome picture.
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Felt like summer until about 1PM today. Got to about 80° before the bottom fell out. Had a wind gust to 50mph on my weather station right around fropa which led to quite a few people with power out just south of me by a few blocks.
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Spring 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Yuck. Let’s hope that doesn’t verify like the snow that was supposed to be falling today (as of a week ago) lol -
Thanks for sharing that. I was surprised when I walked out the door at 7:30 this morning to find it in the 70’s. Felt like mid summer and was very nice. If I recall correctly, last summer there were very few days with mins even in the 60’s. Seemed to always be in the 40’s/50’s.
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Another beautiful spring morning followed by fropa and plummeting temps with a stiff NW wind by noon. Wish we could get more than a day or two of nice weather before the bottom falls out.
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Was just looking at long range and it looks like some areas could be in the mid 20’s for lows around here (even colder in central MI) next Saturday/Sunday/Monday nights. Highs only in the 40’s but have a feeling that May sunshine will cause those temps to be at least in the 50’s. Probably end up being 70 with lows in the 50s lol everything has been hot garbage after day 4/5 as of the late.
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Love to see it.
