Harry Perry

On I-94 WB @ 85 - highway is a solid sheet of ice. Several slide offs. State Police even slid off tending to one of the calls. Moderate rain and 21° atm.

21° and light rain here. Freezing on contact.

Wouldn’t take much for ice accretion with temps so low. Could end up being interesting depending on how high the surface temp actually gets.

Models playing catch-up. Come tomorrow should be interesting.

00z GFS and RAP really hit some areas hard with ZR Accums.

Now that you mention it I remember you saying that. Thanks for the input, definitely a similar situation.

Well explained Hoosier. I certainly don’t envy a forecaster in this position. SREF ensembles nearly literally spilt in two over my area. Half the members give us rain with little snow accumulation and the other half gives us a respectable amount of snow. The NWS torn on which direction to go so they go right down the middle. In my experience when you have high heights to your E/NE and skin temps at 0-10° for over 48 hours, a storm system is really going to have to pack quite the punch with WAA to boost temps to near 40° (as some models are hinting at) and this system just isn’t that robust. Don’t see it happening as some global models are depicting especially when some don’t even have a handle on current temps. Short range models will hopefully have a better handle on this. Another interesting system to watch.

Think that’s a solid call. Intriguing to say the least for your area with the potential for some good lake effect ontop of synoptic snow. Also with the 30+ mph winds from the NE could see some blizzard conditions to boot.

Going to make a call for my location at 5” based on latest guidance and temperatures. May be some over-performing IF convection south doesn’t rob of moisture, but as Hoosier said earlier, these warm air advection snows can certainly overperform and this one is definitely capable of just that. 06z and 12z had less convection in the south (Kentucky south to Mississippi/Alabama) where as 18z and 00z have caught onto more widespread even possibly severe rain/convection from KY points south and east. All options really still on the table. This will likely turn into more of a nowcasting event. Still fun to watch unfold. Sure beats the hell out of nothing! *Edit Expect for a WWA to be hoisted for the I-96 corridor points south this morning... but not holding my breath - GRR/DTX

Lot of convection in Alabama in recent hi-res runs. 00z Euro so far looks roughly the same - maybe slightly lower amounts on the northern end.

At least you have a nice little bullseye IYBY.

This storm is making my Miller Lite taste surprisingly well haha.

Tonight’s runs shall be intriguing with full sampling. Models still all over the place.

For Grand Rapids, I would agree on the 3-5”... however I do believe they forget that there is more than just Grand Rapids they need to account for. Always seems that if it doesn’t interest Kent county as much as Jackson county, they act ho-hum about it. Been like this for years with certain forecasters. If WDM (Bill) was the forecaster for this storm he would go into much detail about it and where he thinks the best snowfall would be. Also, he would’ve most certainly issued a SWS at minimum to cover the potential for heavy snow. I-94 corridor is looking at 4-8” locally if the storm system holds true and trends continue - that is most certainly a significant snowfall and it should be noted. But again, I don’t know why I would expect any different. It’s only public life and property on the line haha.

GRR never fails to amaze me. A general “1-4” with accums near 6” along I-94” - but who needs to know? No mention of a SWS, WSW, WWA... nothing haha.

They issued a WWA for the possibility of a glazing of ice the other day... the forecast discussion read like this “Going to err on the side of caution and issue an advisory”. I’m thinking, but when we have a storm with 6”+ of snow on the table shouldn’t you “err on side of caution” and issue a watch?? Oh wait, they’re expecting 1-2” with locally higher amounts Like the looks of the short range models this morning as well as the GFS and NAM. Looks more typical and inline with WAA snows which tend to overperform in situations like this. Will feel more solid about this storm after 00z tonight with full sampling of the energy off the pacific coast. Chicago could easily end up with some double digit snow due to lake enhancement. A rare occurrence on that side of the pond - interesting system to watch unfold.

We know this all too well. GRR is taking this as a slam dunk 1-4” but they sure do seem impressed about next Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s focus on the here and now potential first GRR .

This.

This. It’s not a matter of “it can change in the coming days”.. but more certainly it “will change in the coming days”. Too much up in the air at this point. Personally feel the potential is there but would have to have a lot to come together to get a blockbuster - at least on the northern fringe of the potential track and with this particular system (many more on the horizon after this). Can’t really make a solid call on anything yet but my best guess would be I-70 to I-80 should be on the lookout for several inches and I-64 to I-94 could be in play depending on the track. Feel as if it will be more suppressed to the south (as the GFS and EURO have been depicting). Again, at this point - anything is possible.

We need this system again, only with temps in the lower 20’s - can you imagine?

Sitting at 4.3” here... still snowing but lightening up. Deformation snow moving this way but weakening quickly. Might squeeze another inch or two out before it weakens and moves east. Roads are absolute garbage due to the heavy wet nature of the snow. Power went out to boot. Lots of weight in the trees - reminds me of an ice storm, minus the ice and add plaster. Makes for a beautiful sight though.

Just measured 3.0” here in Battle Creek. Heavy snow still coming down. Visibility 0. Wind gust to 33mph. Power went out a bit ago.

Heavy rain changed over to heavy snow about an hour ago. Winds are picking up. Already have an inch. Visibility less than a mile.

That’s just it, I’ve always been under the notion that a warning was 5” or more within 12 hours or potentially life threatening winter like conditions (e.g. low temps, blowing snow, high winds/deadly windchills).

This.