Harry Perry

I’m seeing that as well.. seems like it would’ve been wise to just go with warnings where they are warranted and wording about a potential lull. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds. I think your forecast is spot-on.

Have a feeling some DTX and GRR areas may go warning come tomorrow sometime, but as Bill Marino (GRR) stated they didn’t want to confuse the public with two separate WSW’s (tonight’s inch or two compared to tomorrow nights 5-8”) which is understandable. We’ll see.

A realistic outcome at 17-20:1. Looks good.

GRR and DTX on the “general inch or two” train. GRR because the heaviest snow won’t affect them directly and DTX because, well... DTX.

That is impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that either. The entire state. Mind boggling.

Meanwhile my local office I’d say someone is going to be eating crow here, the NW trend can’t be denied. Not saying we end up with a foot but I certainly believe 5-8” is on the table for the I-69/I-94 corridor given the latest agreement across the board. Will be interesting to see how today’s trends play out.

The big thing as noted earlier are the ratios... we’re talking 20 to in some cases nearly 30:1 with temps in the lower teens. I believe the EURO (kuchera) is onto this.

Have a feeling this could end up being quite the snow maker for a good chunk of us. If the trend continues, I would guess a lot more watches to be issued in the morning package.

GRR discounting the system totally this morning. (A general 1-2” is possible). This should be fun to watch.

At 5-6” and counting here. 14°. Roads are a mess. Welcome to winter.

Well that escalated quickly. Heaviest I’ve seen in a couple years. Dropped a quick half of an inch.

Less than 1 minute later... Temp dropped from 33° to 30° in the same amount of time. Impressive.

Heavy returns overhead... current view

Agreed, it’s been a while. Looks like we’ll get 4-6 hours of decent rates tomorrow. Hard to say how much will accumulate at first, but should really start to get going right before it quits Thursday evening.

Biggest snow of the season. Snow ended around 7 this morning. Total 2-3”, hard to measure with the drifting.

Well well, after 6 to 7 hours of returns overhead our first flakes have finally began falling.

It is hitting the “block” wall as you can see on radar.

This. This is the one.

1-9”... what could go wrong?

Hard call over here. Plumes from 1.5” to 8” with a mean around 4” but absolutely NO clustering at all. Considering the rapid transfer of energy to the east coast, would expect rapid shunting of heaviest precip to push through to the east southeast while weakening on the northern end due to our fun northern friend “BLOCK”. Without the blocking to our north, this would probably trend much further north and it still could a bit, but likely not enough to make more than a notable difference. Going with 2.5” here. RogueWaves, what’re you thinkin?

Baby steps. Last system really shunted the axis of snow well north of guidance.

Yeah that would be our luck. Wonder if the wave ejects further south. Currently riding the trough out west. Sampling/tomorrow’s runs should help with this but I’m willing to be we actually get our first legitimate “storm” (2-4”) out of this.

Baby steps...

Has GHD2 always been 4th on the CIPS list or is it creeping higher and higher?

18z looks to be a solid hit around southern MI and a general spread the wealth for many. Wonder if the models will play catch up like the last storm.. i.e. dry air aloft.