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16 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Was that an intensification of 50 kt to 120kt in 24 hours? Or am I wrong?

60 knot increase from 5AM EDT Saturday’s 60 knots to 5AM today’s 120 knots!

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30 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

So do we think ewrc is trying to start or not? Sure looks like it on radar. 

No, recon data does not find or support a double wind maxima. No signs of a concentric eyewall either. Pressure is again lower on recent pass. Pressure continues to drop but winds are not catching up yet. 

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The wind still hasn't risen at all today.  Satellite looks like cat 4, but recon hasn't found any cat 4 FL wind.

With Melissa being a small, compact storm it’s possible they haven’t found the “sweet spot” in the northeast quad. Ive seen in years past where recon sometimes miss the sweet spot with these small compact systems. Other thing to consider is Melissa is undergoing some sort of internal process. Not an ERC but there are many different types of internal processes that a cyclone can undergo.

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

double the speed, 4x the kinetic energy and also 4x the drag force on objects.

 

Wouldn't area also be a factor?   E.g. reduced area during EWRC could theoretically result in increased wind speed while keeping kinetic energy the same right?    (or vice versa - total kinetic energy could be increasing while wind speed remains about the same?)

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Latest dropsonde data supports Melissa is not only intensifying but is likely hours away from another potential rapid intensification process. Both images are 2 hours apart, and show an incredible structure change to Melissa’s eye. So while the internal process is not an ERC, it was very much structural and likely about to wrap up.

The internal process was truly hindering mixing. First pass subsidence was not fully established. The second pass subsidence is highly noted. This is a precursor to a high-end hurricane going nuclear.

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27 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Latest dropsonde data supports Melissa is not only intensifying but is likely hours away from another potential rapid intensification process. Both images are 2 hours apart, and show an incredible structure change to Melissa’s eye. So while the internal process is not an ERC, it was very much structural and likely about to wrap up.

The internal process was truly hindering mixing. First pass subsidence was not fully established. The second pass subsidence is highly noted. This is a precursor to a high-end hurricane going nuclear.

IMG_2806.png

IMG_2805.png

Very fascinating stuff. Thank you for sharing 

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1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

 

Wouldn't area also be a factor?   E.g. reduced area during EWRC could theoretically result in increased wind speed while keeping kinetic energy the same right?    (or vice versa - total kinetic energy could be increasing while wind speed remains about the same?)

just simple kinetic energy = 1/2 mv^2. For integrated kinetic energy, there's more to it. (I'm not sure how to look that up.)

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